tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12339127.post8951808391280809115..comments2024-01-13T01:17:55.325-06:00Comments on Tom Nelson: RICO20 emailsTomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08119241500221931600noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12339127.post-70024709496572750392016-05-14T02:55:13.277-05:002016-05-14T02:55:13.277-05:00In a July 27, 2015 email from J Shukla to Ed Mailb...In a July 27, 2015 email from J Shukla to Ed Mailbach<br /><br />[..] Some of my fellow climate scientists had suggested earlier that as climate scientists, we should say something about the overwhelming scientific evidence of human caused climate change.<br /><br />Wonder what he is referring to?<br /><br />My thanks to Roger Pielke, Jr. for the following clarity on the subject matter at hand.<br /><br /><br />---<br />IPCC AR5 – Floods <br /><br />“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.” <br /><br />IPCC SREX co-authors – Floods <br /><br />“a direct statistical link between anthropogenic climate change and trends in the magnitude/frequency of floods has not been established... There is such a furore of concern about the linkage between greenhouse forcing and floods that it causes <br />society to lose focus on the things we already know for certain about floods and how to mitigate and adapt to them. Blaming climate change for flood losses makes <br />flood losses a global issue that appears to be out of the control of regional or national institutions. The scientific community needs to emphasize that the <br />problem of flood losses is mostly about what we do on or to the landscape and that will be the case for decades to come.” <br /><br />Zbigniew et al. 2014 Hydrological Sciences Journal<br />---<br />IPCC AR5 – Tropical cyclones <br /><br />“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century .” <br /><br />“No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North <br />Atlantic basin.”<br />---<br />IPCC SREX – Tornadoes <br /><br />“There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such <br />as tornadoes and hail.”<br />---<br />IPCC AR5 – Drought <br /><br />“There is not enough evidence to support medium or high confidence of attribution of increasing trends to anthropogenic forcings as a result of observational uncertainties and variable results from region to region. . <br /><br />. we conclude consistent with SREX that there is low confidence in detection and attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century.” <br /><br />“Recent long-term droughts in western North America cannot definitively be shown to lie outside the very large envelope of natural precipitation variability in this region”<br /><br />"Overwhelming" is a very big word. Does Shukla not understand this?Gary Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17499204267326280123noreply@blogger.com