Tom Nelson

Email 1800, Mar 2005, precious question by Phil Jones: "Is the pre-20th century really that important when it comes to [detection and attribution]?"

2012-02-01T14:15:00.001-06:00

From being at the review last week of the vertical temperature trends panel, the issue of reducing forcing uncertainties is important. A number of people think that agreement in the 20th century is all doing to model tuning due to uncertain forcing with sulphates. How to counter this is one area. One of my own pet areas is trying to reduce uncertainties in the paleo record for the last millennium, but again this is one of convincing people that we really know what has happened. So much is being made of the paleo records, but are they that important to detection when most of the work is going on with the 20th century records. Is the pre-20th century really that important when it comes to D&A? Cheers Phil

Email 1811, July 2003, AGU's Public Information Manager brags about unleashing the AGU "publicity machine" to push Mann et al's climate hoax propaganda

2012-02-01T14:06:00.001-06:00

Email 1811

cc: Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Raymond Bradley , Philip D Jones
date: Mon, 07 Jul 2003 16:56:08 -0400 from: Harvey Leifert subject: Re: 03-19 Mann et al. - climate change press release issued to: "Michael E. Mann"
All,
We issued the press release at 3:40 p.m. EDT Monday, July 7. It was sent to 900 science writers worldwide on our distribution list and posted on EurekAlert!, the AAAS web site for science press releases.
Almost immediately, we received requests for the full article from The New York Times, USA Today, National Public Radio, Toronto Star, San Jose Mercury News, Cox Newspapers, Richmond Times-Dispatch, and four freelancers. It was too late for most Europeans to receive the release Monday, so we expect additional requests Tuesday morning.
Thanks to all for your help.
Harvey --
Harvey Leifert Public Information Manager American Geophysical Union

June 2003: Mann: "it would be nice to try to "contain" the putative "MWP""; Jones: "I would hope that AGU/EOS 'publicity machine' will shout the message from rooftops everywhere"

When it comes out I would hope that AGU/EOS 'publicity machine' will shout the message from rooftops everywhere. [Phil Jones]

Email 1817, May 2005, Phil Jones on what the IPCC actually did: They didn't tell us what was in the peer-reviewed literature, they gave us their own [warmist] opinions on which parts of the peer-reviewed literature were correct

2012-02-01T13:49:00.001-06:00

Email 1817

In some parts of our chapter, we omit the poor [ie, non-warmist] papers. Just stressing that we are doing an assessment and not a review. An assessment is our expert view of the science at the present.

Email 1819, Nov 2003, warmist Tom Wigley to Mann et al on possible responses to McIntyre and McKitrick's request for data: "The second is to tell them to go to hell"

2012-02-01T13:42:00.001-06:00

Email 1819

One of their buzz phrases is 'the basic standards of data disclosure'. Personally, I see no reason why one should disclose all data and all methodological details -- unless required to by the funding authority. I had a long exchange with Timo on this issue, which I will forward to you. These guys are primarily accusing you of either making errors or being incompetent. (I have not seen this directly, but they may also be implying that you deliberately distorted your analysis -- but it is best not to get into this possibility.) There are three possible responses. The first is to prove to *them* that your results are correct. The second is to tell them to go to hell. The third is to use an independent arbiter (a statistician) to repeat your analysis...A possible holding action would be to say that a full paper describing the methods used was in preparation, and they just have to wait. (In other words, go to hell for now, and I'll tell you when to come back out.)

Email 4578, July 2005, Phil Jones: "it is possible to get a trend of nearer 0.75 if the trend starts around 1920 (especially if the cold year of 1917 is at the start)"

2012-02-01T12:23:00.001-06:00

Email 4578

date: Mon Jul 18 14:25:52 2005 from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: Text and CQ stuff to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" , Kevin Trenberth
Kevin, Even without smoothing it is possible to get a trend of nearer 0.75 if the trend starts around 1920 (especially if the cold year of 1917 is at the start). The periods chosen for Table 3.2.2 had some justification, so we need to be a little careful. As a schematic for CQ2 though, it will be a different way of showing the same data. I'll talk it over with David. Cheers Phil

But remember since "...the first half of the 20th century warmed up naturally", we can't blame human CO2 emissions for any pre-1950 warming

Climate hoax promoter Michael Mann: For he's a jolly bad Fellow

2012-02-01T12:13:00.001-06:00

Penn State scientists elected to American Geophysical Union

In the late 1990s, Mann with colleagues published the "hockey stick" graph of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past millennium. Based upon so-called "proxy" climate records such as ice cores, tree rings and corals, the graph demonstrates significant global warming in the last century. The graph, which has become a lightning rod for climate-change deniers, and the ensuing controversy are the subject of Mann's soon-to-be-released book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From the Front Lines."

Email 2349, Nov 2003, Energy and Environment editor Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen writes a great letter to Mann, Briffa, Pachauri, etc

2012-02-01T12:10:00.001-06:00

Email 2349

I simply believe that research controversies related to global warming (science, social science, and technology) should be heard by policy-makers and NGOs in a world were vast amounts of limited finance are about to be spend on 'decarbonisation' on the assumption made by most social scientists and many policy people that IPCC summary pronouncements are undisputed and hence are acceptable as uncontroversial baseline for their work on decarbonisation economics, 'clean' technologoly, carbon finance, Kyoto mechanisms etc). I am encouraging research controversy in the public arena rather than editorial boardrooms. For example and to my considerable regret, even the UK Foreign Office and many of my colleaugues in the energy policy research (not in the earth sciences by the way) now believe that they need not pay any attention to scientific issues because all climate skeptics are funded by the oil industry. If this slur is permitted to stand, as it seems to be, then journals like mine are surely permitted to ask and who is funding the 'global warming' modelling community if not governments committed to the UNFCCC, and to explore what agendas have attached themselves to the warming threat.

Email 4582, Feb 2009, Phil Jones on global average surface temperature: "The work that estimated the 14 number (it was 14.02 for the globe) made lots of assumptions over the sea ice areas and the Antarctic. I always thought this was accurate to about +/- 0.5 deg C"

2012-02-01T12:01:00.001-06:00

Email 4582

It would be useful to see what ERA-Interim does get for the global average surface absolute T for your 1989-99 base period. The work that estimated the 14 number (it was 14.02 for the globe) made lots of assumptions over the sea ice areas and the Antarctic. I always thought this was accurate to about +/- 0.5 deg C. It was impossible to explain this accuracy of the absolute vs the much smaller error bars on the anomalies to any journalists.

2012-02-01T11:56:00.001-06:00

Zombie » The Coming of the New Ice Age: End of the Global Warming Era?

The fact that the media and popular culture and academia have veered from one panic-inducing disaster scenario to another one which completely contradicts the first one is funny enough in its own right. But reading The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age opened my eyes to an even more significant aspect of this serial crisis-mongering:
The “solutions” prescribed to solve both Global Warming and the looming Ice Age are exactly the same.
In both cases, proponents of the theory-du-jour say that in order to stave off disaster, we must reverse the march of civilization, stop our profligate use of carbon-based fuels, cede power and money from the First World to the Third World, and wherever possible revert to a Luddite pre-industrial lifestyle.
I realized: The solution (commit civilizational suicide) always remains the same; all that differs are the wildly divergent purported “crises” proffered up to justify the imposition of the solution.

Al's Journal : Troubled oceans at the bottom of the world

king crabs have invaded an area previously considered far too cold for their survival. The impact of the arrival of these predators, for the first time in millions of years, could be catastrophic for the surrounding ecosystem

How, exactly, does Al Gore know that no king crabs have lived in that area for "millions of years"?

Email 4631, Jan 2001, UEA's Mike Hulme recommends a now-defunct "The Carbon Trader" climate scam website

2012-02-01T11:42:00.001-06:00

Email 4631

date: Mon Jan 22 09:07:00 2001
from: Mike Hulme
subject: Fwd: The Carbon Trader - Edition 37 - BP to spend US$650m...
to: e.l.jones
Elaine,
This is a good web site to keep an eye on.
Mike
...thecarbontrader.com

thecarbontrader.com - trader

This domain may be for sale

Email 4653, March 2002, Geoff Jenkins of the Met Office: "...we can only use "will" when we have complete confidence in the direction, ie Temperatures will rise"

2012-02-01T11:38:00.001-06:00

Email 4653

Re your last para: "will" is a difficult verb to use when we quote numbers. We cannot say the temperature rise will be between XdegC and YdegC, even when those numbers span the High to Low Emissions range - because they are all from Hadley model for a start. UNLESS we do as I suggested and preface the stsments with WE PREDICT THAT: Without this preface, we can only use "will" when we have complete confidence in the direction, ie Temperatures will rise.
I know everyone wants to see more certainty, but we have to maintain sceintific credibility.

Email 4847, Aug 1999, Sari Kovats et al: Increasing CO2 emissions would "will cause a net decrease in temperature-related mortality in many cities"

2012-02-01T11:09:00.001-06:00

Email 4847

We suggest..
"Patterns of mortality in many large urban populations exhibit strong seasonal patterns, particularly in temperate climates, and therefore a reduction in cold winters and an increase in warm summers with climate change will cause a net decrease in temperature-related mortality in many cities. This benefit is not as great under the emission scenarios leading to CO2 stabilisation."

2012-02-01T11:07:00.001-06:00

In Climate [Scam] Fight, Tracking the Line Between Diagnosis and Treatment - NYTimes.com

There are valid points hidden deep in the op-ed piece (any presidential candidate should indeed care about bolstering, not shredding, our capacity to monitor and understand climate), but they are interlaced with ridiculous comparisons (Lysenkosism and climate activism)....The reality for most of the signatories of the rebuttal letter is that they are more akin to medical technicians — making sure the thermometers gauging a fever are reliable — and radiologists — interpreting a CT scan — than diagnosticians prescribing the appropriate treatment.

Nobel Peace Prize Jury Under Investigation : NPR

...Geir Lundestad, the nonvoting secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, dismissed Heffermehl's claims.
"Fighting climate change is definitely closely related to fraternity between nations. It even concerns the survival of some states," he told AP.

Email 4868, Sept '05: IPCC reviewer McIntyre asks to see the data underlying a paper; warmists complain this is a "major abuse of his position"

2012-02-01T10:59:00.001-06:00

Email 4868

[McIntyre] I am a reviewer for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 4AR) and am writing in respect to a submission to your journal by D'Arrigo et al., entitled "On the Long-Term Context for Late 20th Century Warming." This article was referenced in chapter 6 of the Draft IPCC 4AR and made available to IPCC reviewers. In the course of my review, I contacted the senior author, Dr. D'Arrigo, for the FTP location of the data used in this article or for alternative access to the data. Dr D'Arrigo categorically refused and I was referred to the journal editor if I desired recourse.

Email 4881, June 2007, Phil Jones: "The final end product looks just like my hope - summers were 0.5 deg C too warm..."

2012-02-01T10:48:00.001-06:00

Email 4881

The final end product looks just like my hope - summers were 0.5 deg C too warm and for winters it is negligible, although it does make it very marginally ccoler.

Email 4887, Dec 2007, Phil Jones: The global temperature record "can be quite well approximated from a solar series (preferably a recent one by Lean), a volcano series and anthropogenic sources (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols)"

2012-02-01T10:20:00.001-06:00

Email 4887

There is no need to invoke any geomagnetic indices to explain the global T record. It can be quite well approximated from a solar series (preferably a recent one by Lean), a volcano series and anthropogenic sources (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols)

2012-02-01T10:14:00.001-06:00

Newt & Nancy’s Loveseat: Brought to You by George Soros | JunkScience.com

Who Gave The Alliance For Climate Protection $5 Million In 2008? George Soros, Of Course. George Soros’ Open Society Institute gave the Alliance for Climate Protection $5 million in 2008.

Email 4919, Aug 2000, Phil Jones denies the divergence problem: "there is no way Singer can say the proxy data doesn't record the last 20 years of warming, as we don't have enough of the proxy series after about 1980. "

2012-02-01T10:13:00.001-06:00

Email 4919

This background is to illustrate how Singer et al distort things. The new reconstruction only runs to 1960 as did earlier ones based solely on tree-ring density. All the other long series (Mike's, Tom Crowley's and mine) include other proxy information (ice cores, corals, historical records, sediments and early instrumental records as well as tree-ring width data, which are only marginally affected). All these series end around 1980 or in the early 1980s. We don't have paleo data for much of the last 20 years. It would require tremendous effort and resources to update a lot of the paleo series because they were collected during the 1970s/early 1980s.
It is possible to add the instrumental series on from about 1980 (Mike sought of did this in his Nature article to say 1998 was the warmest of the millennium - and I did something similar in Rev. Geophys.) but there is no way Singer can say the proxy data doesn't record the last 20 years of warming, as we don't have enough of the proxy series after about 1980.
http://www.co2.science.org/edit/editor.html takes the argument further saying that as trees don't see all the warming since about 1960 the instrumental records recently must be in error (i.e. this group believes the trees and not the instrumental records). This piece by Idso and Idso seems to want to have the argument whichever suits them.

Email 3008, Oct 1999, Timothy Carter to Mike Hulme: Japanese model shows Arctic Ocean to get up to 26 degrees C. hotter

2012-02-01T10:03:00.001-06:00

Email 3008

He has produced some graphs of selected representative regions for the characterizations, and they seem OK except for some enormous changes at northern high latitudes with the Japanese model. With scaling these are up to 26 deg C (Arctic Ocean - we haven't looked at Arctic land yet)! Seasonal changes in the tropics are nearer a few deg C and in the Antarctic are less than 10 deg C.

Email 3178, Sept 2000, UEA's Trevor Davies: Met Office considering move to UEA's town (Norwich); "An objective of the Met Office is to "diversify into environmental services""

2012-02-01T09:59:00.001-06:00

Email 3178

At this point, I would like to explain that - from ENV's point of view -
there will be benefits from a closer Met Office contact, not only in the
obvious met/climate/ocean area, but across a potentially much larger part
of our spectrum. An objective of the Met Office is to "diversify into
environmental services".

Email 325, Oct 2003, Ammann to Michael Mann: "...the first half of the 20th century warmed up naturally"; this conflicts with current information on a DOE website

2012-02-01T09:30:00.001-06:00

Email 325

The more we are able to explain why the first half of the 20th century warmed up naturally,
the more confidence we get on the detection of the anthropogenic signal afterwards.
Caspar

ARM Education - From the US Department of Energy: Ask a Scientist Past Questions

The industrial revolution (at the turn of the century - 1890-1910) is often taken to be the beginning of humans influencing global warming.

Email 412, Mar. 2001, Tom Crowley to several Hockey Team members: "It therefore seems that the conveyor is indeed oscillating but the time scale of the larger scale CLIMATE shifts may be more regulated by solar, with volcanism adding some stochastic contribution"

2012-02-01T09:20:00.001-06:00

Email 412

ps fyi I counted the average spacing between the warm and cold oscillations in the iron oscillations illustrated by Broecker. Regardless of whether warm or cold are used, the mean spacing is indeed 1.5 k, although the s.d. is 0.4k HOWEVER, the mean spacing between the four main warm phases illustrated by Broecker on the same figure is, believe it or not, 2.15! much closer to the solar peak. This calls to mind the interesting (and clever) Wigley and Raper paper in Proc. Roy. Soc. (1990) indicating that, given the uncertainties in chronology, solar forcing plays a role i n Holocenn climate change. It therefore seems that the conveyor is indeed oscillating but the time scale of the larger scale CLIMATE shifts may be more regulated by solar, with volcanism adding some stochastic contribution. Something like this is worth adding to the proposed Eos piece.

2012-02-01T09:03:00.001-06:00

Helicopters pluck stranded Europeans from snowbound villages - Winnipeg Free Press

BELGRADE, Serbia - Rescue helicopters evacuated dozens of people from snow-blocked villages in Serbia and Bosnia and airlifted in emergency food and medicine as a severe cold spell kept eastern Europe in its icy grip.
The death toll from the cold rose to 79 on Wednesday and emergency crews worked overtime as temperatures sank to minus 32.5 C in some areas.
...In central Serbia, choppers pulled out 12 people, including nine who went to a funeral but then could not get back over icy, snow-choked roads. Two more people froze to death in the snow and two others are missing, bringing that nation's death toll to five.
"The situation is dramatic, the snow is up to five metres high in some areas, you can only see rooftops," said Dr. Milorad Dramacanin, who participated in the helicopter evacuations.

Taxpayer Cash for Ener1 Helped a Thrice-Failed Foreign EV Company | National Legal and Policy Center

What did DOE (and for that matter, Gov. Daniels and Indiana Economic Development Corporation) know when it awarded Ener1 millions of dollars in grants and incentives in 2009? Did they understand the company’s dependence on a thrice-failed (perhaps more) EV maker? Did DOE watchdogs know Ener1 would immediately invest in shaky Think after its $118 million award? Was Vice President Biden’s visit to Indiana an attempt to instill confidence in the failing battery maker and Norwegian EV company?
Is this what venture capitalism in the new “clean energy economy” is all about?

2012-02-01T08:53:00.001-06:00

William M. Briggs, Statistician » Bad Astronomer Does Bad Statistics: That Wall Street Journal Editorial

Mann’s understanding of statistics may be likened to an overly enthusiastic undergraduate who left the lecture early.

How to Form a Consensus « the Air Vent

The theme which started the URL of noconsensus, was that a consensus is an unnatural state for humanity. People disagree about everything under the Sun. Usually, disagreement is due to lack of information but we all know that many times it is about biased interpretation of information. The only questions in global warming are related to the magnitude of warming, what is causing that warming and whether it is a problem in any way at all. In my opinion, this is just my opinion, those questions aren’t even close to being answered by Climate Science™. Yet if the left wing environmental groups around the country cannot have consensus on the danger and the consequential need to enact anti-industry controls for that danger, their own self-destructive agenda cannot move forward.

Intellectually Insolvent U. Of Osnabrück Shuts Down Debate – Calls Skepticism “Provocative”

What do the intellectually challenged do when they’re out-matched in debate and fully exhausted of arguments?
You do what the University of Osnabrück has done: you prevent the opponent from entering the debating arena. You call it off and closed-mindedly insist you’re right.

Insiders: Energy Legislation Unlikely in 2012 - Olga Belogolova - NationalJournal.com

A whopping 81 percent of Insiders said it is unlikely Congress will send any energy legislation to Obama in 2012. Fifty-two percent said the prospects are “very unlikely,” while 29 percent said they are “somewhat unlikely.”

Philadelphia’s Warm January Was Seven Degrees Cooler Than 1790 | Real Science

Record warm January 2012 averaged 37F, compared to 44F in 1790. Hansen could adjust this, except for the fact that he now believes time began in 1960.

Email 1609, Jan 2007, Jonathan Gregory to Phil Jones on 'not particularly unusual' sea level rise: "Personally, I suspect that the network is too sparse, so that the variability is to some extent measurement noise. It is so large we have no physical explanation for it..."

2012-02-01T08:47:00.001-06:00

Email 1609

date: Fri, 5 Jan 2007 14:20:44 +0000 from: Jonathan Gregory
subject: New study: Current sea level rise 'not particularly unusual' to: Phil Jones...
Yes, we are going to have fun with sea level in Paris. Actually I don't think I've read that paper yet but we have a diagram already that shows the very large variability in decadal trends from tide-gauges. Personally, I suspect that the network is too sparse, so that the variability is to some extent measurement noise. It is so large we have no physical explanation for it...

Photos: PCC meetings

Scientists at an IPCC session in Paris, January 2007.

Email 176, Jan 2008, more settled science: Phil Jones seems alarmed at the "solar constant" being changed "from 1366.5 to 1361!!"

2012-02-01T07:53:00.001-06:00

Email 176

date: Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:18:51 -0700 from: Caspar Ammann subject: Re: pdf to: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
Phil,
will do. And regarding TSI, it looks like that 1361 or 1362 (+/-) are going to be the new consensus. All I hear is that this seems to be quite robust. Fodder for the critics: all these modelers, they always put in too much energy - no wonder it was warming - and now they want to reduce the natural component? The SORCE meeting is going to be on that satellite stuff but also about climate connections : Sun-Earth. Tom Crowley is going to be there, Gavin Schmidt, David Rind, and a few others; of course Judith.
Thanks for Bo Vinther's manuscript!
Caspar
On Jan 30, 2008, at 3:12 PM, [1]P.Jones@uea.ac.uk wrote:
Caspar,
OK. Keep me informed. Also I'd like to know more the conclusions of the meeting you're going to on the solar constant. Just that it can change from 1366.5 to 1361!!
Cheers, Phil

Email 235, Oct 2007: Phil Jones calls a warmer climate "better"; warm weather leads to good harvests, cold weather leads to famine; "people are not affected much by climate or climate change. What effects them is the Weather!"

2012-02-01T07:47:00.001-06:00

Email 235

The clearest impacts of climate in the historical past that I'm aware of took place when the climate of western Europe warmed from the early 1700s to about 1739. There were a number of good harvests in Britain and Ireland and our population increased dramatically as more children survived. You should now see why your premise about the Little Ice Age is completely wrong. The 1730s temperatures in the UK are exceeded by two decades - the 1990s and the 2000s. In the late 1730s the population of Ireland was about twice what it is now! In 1740 the coldest year in the Central England Temperature record occurred. This led of famine across western Europe, especially Ireland. As many people left Ireland then as did from the potato famine a century later. Probably as many died, but it is a forgotten famine because of the later on in 1845/6. The latter was due to the potato blight (and a one crop agricultural system), but the one in 1740 was purely to the weather. I'm attaching an article about this - the book to look at is by Dickson - in the references. There is something in the paper about the effects of the very cold year in different regions of Europe. The important thing in all this is the exceptional cold of the year occurred after exceptional warmth of an entire decade, so the effects were likely much worse as the population had got used to a better [warmer] climate. The conclusion of the paper is that the event was natural (with no known cause) so it could occur again! The follow on influence of this is that people are not affected much by climate or climate change. What effects them is the Weather!

2012-02-01T07:31:00.001-06:00

Rajan's Take: Climate Change: Oxfam's big dilemma: To open or close their swimming pool in their Nairobi guest house???

So what difference will one measly swimming pool with an attendant make to changing popular public perceptions of the extravagant lifestyles of these INGO staffers? In fact, in India, fuel guzzling SUVs are even considered a clear Oxfam legacy to the NGO sector. All you need to find a NGO office is to successfully spot the SUVs parked as a clutter
outside it.

Email 237, Mar 2006, Briffa and Osborn: We don't really know how warm it was 1000 years ago, and this allegedly isn't a big deal

2012-02-01T07:08:00.001-06:00

Email 237

It was my call not to "overplay" the importance of the divergence issue, knowing the subtlety of the issues, in the fortcoming IPCC Chapter 6 draft. We did always intend to have a brief section about the assumption of uniformitarianism in proxy interpretation , including mention of the possible direct carbon dioxide fertilization effect on tree growth (equally controversial), but it is likely to conclude that here as well , there is no strong evidence of any major real-world effect. This and the divergence problem are not well defined, sufficiently studied, or quantified to be worthy of too much concern at this point. The uncertainty estimates we calibrate when interpreting many tree-ring series will likely incorporate the possibility of some bias in our estimates of past warmth, but these are wide anyway. This does not mean that temperatures were necessarily at the upper extreme of the reconstruction uncertainty range 1000 years ago, any more than they may have been at the bottom. The real problem is a lack of widespread (and non-terrestrial) proxies for defining the level of early warmth, and the vital need to up-date and study the responses of proxies in very recent times.

Email 239, Oct 2003, John Holdren defends Michael Mann's alarmism by stressing Mann's careful weasel wording

2012-02-01T07:01:00.001-06:00

Email 239

Regarding extravagant claims, you continue to argue that Mann et al. have been guilty of this, but the formulation of theirs that you offer as evidence is not evidence of this at all. You quote them from the NYT in 1998, referring to a study Mann and co-authors published in that year, as saying
"Our conclusion was that the warming of the past few decades appears to be closely tied to emission of greenhouse gases by humans and not any of the natural factors."
and you ask "Does that seem to be careful in the nature of a claim?" My answer is: Yes, absolutely, their formulation is careful and appropriate. Please note that they did NOT say "Global warming is closely tied to emission of greenhouse gases by humans and not any of the natural factors." They said that THEIR CONCLUSION (from a particular, specified study, published in NATURE) was that the warming of THE PAST FEW DECADES (that is, a particular, specified part of the historical record) APPEARS (from the evidence adduced in the specified study) to be closely tied... This is a carefully specified, multiply bounded statement, which accurately reflects what they looked at and what they found. And it is appropriately contingent --"APPEARS to be closely tied" -- allowing for the possibility that further analysis or new data could later lead to a different perspective on what appears to be true. With respect, it does not require a PhD in science to notice the appropriate boundedness and contingency in the Mann et al. formulation. It only requires an open mind, a careful reading, and a degree of understanding of the character of scientific claims and the wording appropriate to convey them that is accessible to any thoughtful citizen. That is why I'm an optimist.

Email 295, Feb 2008, Phil Jones: "...the long-term change from the 19th century to the present is only about 1 deg C. This 1 deg C is small compared to weather variability"

2012-02-01T06:47:00.001-06:00

Email 295

Early expedition records and explorer's logs are difficult to compare with modern measurements, as they are often short in duration. When making comparisons you have to remember they are essentially long runs of weather and the long-term change from the 19th century to the present is only about 1 deg C. This 1 deg C is small compared to weather variability. Attached is another paper on early US weather obs. There are a lot of issues to consider with early observations. I also tried years ago to look at early Antarctic weather obs from the explorer days. The day-to-day variability of Antarctic temperatures almost defeats anything being said, except perhaps in the Peninsula region.

2012-02-01T06:10:00.001-06:00

The Reference Frame: WSJ publishes a collective letter disagreeing with Lindzen et al.

But the impartial experts outside these morally contaminated structures don't have these motivations and biases. In combination with the fact that the climate fearmongering turns out to be scientifically incorrect, that's why most of the people in the broader scientific and technological community (but even most of the WSJ readers) simply don't buy into this propaganda. They have figured out that it is scientific rubbish, a counterpart of astrology. Ms Hayhoe and her fellow alarmist cultists should finally take notice.

Gina Rinehart appoints Prof Ian Plimer to two boards | Latest Business & Australian Stock market News | Perth Now

GINA Rinehart has appointed controversial climate change sceptic Ian Plimer to the board of several key family companies.

European cold snap death toll rises to 71

The death toll from a severe cold spell in Eastern Europe rose
to 71 Wednesday, most of them homeless people.
Temperatures dropped to minus 30 C (minus 22 F) in some regions,
causing power outages and traffic chaos and prompting authorities
to close schools and nurseries.

Email 4423, April 2009, warmists struggle to explain what happened with the weather in 1997-1998: "if not instrumental, then maybe an abrupt climate change bogie man came out of the closet to cause 0.5 offset after that time - any ideas? "

2012-02-01T06:06:00.001-06:00

Email 4423

big divergence is during 97-98 ENSO - if it is some instrumental problem from the ocean, perhaps clues from this time interval could unravel why
if not instrumental, then maybe an abrupt climate change bogie man came out of the closet to cause 0.5 offset after that time - any ideas? might be too early to look that way unless ocean instrumental uncertainties are put to rest.... [Tom Crowley]

Email 4418, Feb 1997, maybe CO2 doesn't cause malaria: "I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The Netherlands) between 1820-1930 which do show evidence of this 20 year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920. "

2012-02-01T04:59:00.001-06:00

Email 4418

Did you hear that our joint proposal (with Pim Martens) is one of 1,500 now assessed by the EU? Does not look hopeful. However, maybe we can do some PR and raise the profile of the proposal a bit. What I have in mind is a letter to the Lancet relating weather and historic malaria fluctuations in Europe. In an earlier letter (1994, I may have given you a copy), the geographical association was made between areas affected by ENSO and periodic epidemics. This letter ends with an open explanation for the 20-year periods in malaria in Europe (Italy and the Netherlands). Last weeks publication in Science on a possible North Atlantic equivalent of the Nino with a period of 20 years may be of significance. I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The Netherlands) between 1820-1930 which do show evidence of this 20 year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920. I have no idea whether there are any climate data (sea temperature or otherwise) to justify a hypothesis that both phenomena. Do you have any suggestions?

Email 4417, Feb 2005, Warmist Peter Thorne to Phil Jones: "I don't think we should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of the science)"

2012-02-01T04:56:00.001-06:00

Email 4417

I don't think we should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of the science)...I do not believe that Fu et al. weightings is some panacea nor that the "cancellation" works on all space and timescales (the statement needs to be *proved* it cannot be accepted as an article of faith - that is not the way science works). I'd be amazed if it did. The reservations raised in the peer reviewed literature need to be better articulated here for the document to be fair and balanced...My feeling is that we are missing a significant opportunity here to outline the considerable uncertainty in evolution aloft in favour of deciding one subset of approaches is right and presenting this as gospel truth. I am very uncomfortable with this....So to state boldly that trends agree and therefore all is well is again our living in a fools paradise. It is true, but it just shows that trend metrics are very dangerous beasties and should be handled with care...
Common question 3.2. You'll be unsurprised to hear that I think this paints too rosy a picture of our understanding the vertical structure of temperature changes. Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest.

Email 4413, Oct 2009: Environmental plant physiologist writes to Briffa: "As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole scientific basis of dendroclimatolog"

2012-02-01T04:47:00.001-06:00

Email 4413

As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate
starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009).
As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole
scientific basis of dendroclimatology. In particular;
1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed
2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies
3) The concept of "teleconnection" by which certain trees respond to the
"Global Temperature Field", rather than local climate
4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature
in a linear manner.
Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use
inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find
difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers.
As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do
not agree with the accepted science.

Email 4405, Mar. 2001: Phil Jones calls changes in ice caps/glaciers "our best piece of evidence"

2012-02-01T04:43:00.001-06:00

Email 4405

Thompson estimates that some of these ice caps/glaciers (which have ice layers in the Middle Ages) will disappear in the next 20 years. This is our best piece of evidence. I know we don't use them in many of the compilations, but if these areas had layers in the Middle Ages and are disappearing arguments that globally it was warmer in the MWP are shot to pieces.

Email 4403, Jan. 2005, Keith Briffa: "the glacier evidence is problematic for interpreting precise and quantitative indications of the extent of regional or Hemispheric Warmth (and even cold) - issues of translating tongue position or volume into specific temperature and precipitation forcing"

2012-02-01T04:37:00.001-06:00

Email 4403

the decision is to reduce the glacier evidence to a very much smaller piece , coached in the sense of how the glacier evidence is problematic for interpreting precise and quantitative indications of the extent of regional or Hemispheric Warmth (and even cold) - issues of translating tongue position or volume into specific temperature and precipitation forcing . Hence , I am having to remove the stuff you sent

Email 4400, Feb 2006, Keith Briffa: "do not let Susan (or Mike) push you (us) beyond where we know is right."

2012-02-01T04:33:00.001-06:00

Email 4400

Peck, you have to consider that since the TAR , there has been a lot of argument re "hockey stick" and the real independence of the inputs to most subsequent analyses is minimal. True, there have been many different techniques used to aggregate and scale data - but the efficacy of these is still far from established. We should be careful not to push the conclusions beyond what we can securely justify - and this is not much other than a confirmation of the general conclusions of the TAR . We must resist being pushed to present the results such that we will be accused of bias - hence no need to attack Moberg . Just need to show the "most likely"course of temperatures over the last 1300 years - which we do well I think. Strong confirmation of TAR is a good result, given that we discuss uncertainty and base it on more data. Let us not try to over egg the pudding. For what it worth , the above comments are my (honestly long considered) views - and I would not be happy to go further . Of course this discussion now needs to go to the wider Chapter authorship, but do not let Susan (or Mike) push you (us) beyond where we know is right.

2012-02-01T04:26:00.001-06:00

Lack Of Hurricanes Caused By Global Warming | Real Science

The US is currently experiencing the quietest hurricane period in history. This is also due to global warming, as were the very active seasons of 2004-2005. The most active period occurred during the 1880s, when sea surface temperatures were much lower. This is completely consistent with the belief that more and less hurricanes are caused by global warming.

C3: Bizarre "Science" By Lubchenco's NOAA: Fake Global Warming, Part IV

Last time we checked, 'Lubchenco Science' had accomplished 3 full revisions of the entire historical temperature dataset during January, adding to the 6 known full revisions done in December.
Surprise!....Lubchenco has managed to squeeze another full revision of the entire temperature dataset in the last few days - making it at least 4 for January.
NOAA is now up to 10 full revisions since October - they refer to their constant revising of the historical data going back to 1880 as "quality control."

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows no correlation between CO2 and rainfall

Another tenet of AGW theory bites the dust in the face of real-world data

A Tipping Point Reached | Digging in the Clay

The Mail’s article has 15,521 likes on Facebook; 1,874 tweets on Twitter; 181 +1 on Google and 702 comments. The comment system here allows both ‘thumbs up’ and ‘thumbs down’ voting, and viewing of the comments by ranking. The best rated comments with 500+ (and up to 1702) positive recommendations are scathing of AGW and green taxes, while the worst rated with (200-769) negative recommendations are all from true believers.
Isn’t social media wonderful? The internet has become the demoscrasphere.

ACM Comment: Who are the "deniers" now? | Australian Climate Madness

Because the consensus boys have dug their heels in so firmly, with massive personal and emotional investment in their projections, it would be impossible for many of them to even acknowledge publicly that there may be more going on in the climate system than their models believe. We know from Climategate that many harbour secret doubts about the magnitude of man-made warming, but few are prepared to speak out.

2012-02-01T04:21:00.001-06:00

- Bishop Hill blog - Climatologists respond

I was struck by this:
Climate experts know that the long-term warming trend has not abated in the past decade. In fact, it was the warmest decade on record.

Energy Tribune- Ninety Seven Percent Is Not What You Think

It is interesting that of the 36 meteorologists who responded to question number two, only 23 of 36 or 64% thought that human activity was a “significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures”. The authors dismiss this group of trained atmospheric scientists outright even though their size is almost half of the 79 climate scientists used in generating the 97% figure! Apparently the 64% number was not convincing enough. [Via Climate Realists]

LOCAL - Snowfall creates havoc in ‘white Istanbul’

Heavy snowfall paralyzed daily life in Turkey, especially in Istanbul, yesterday as the country’s biggest city experienced its coldest day in the last 33 years.

Dear James Hansen: Climate Non-Alarmists Are Intellectually Grounded & Well Intentioned (Sir, are you suffering from a ‘fatal conceit’?) — MasterResource

Humility is out. This NASA scientist has taken a ‘Greenpeace’ approach to the environment. He KNOWS both the problem and the answer to the problem, bringing to mind F. A. Hayek warnings about intellectuals who claim to know social problems so well that WE (the world) must adapt their coercive solutions. Beware of what Hayek called The Fatal Conceit.

The New Nostradamus of the North: New British study: There is no economic or environmental case for wind power

There is no economic case for wind power. Neither is there a case for cutting CO2

emissions by using wind power. These are the two main conclusions in a new study ("Electricity Costs: The Folly of Wind Power") by the renowned economist Ruth Lea, published by the independent think tank Civitas.

2012-02-01T04:14:00.001-06:00

UK weather colder than South Pole: Health chiefs warn that minus 11C cold snap could put 2,000 lives at risk for every week it lasts - mirror.co.uk

experts fear the number of deaths due to the extreme conditions could soar to 20% above normal.
Professor Dame Sally Davies, the Department of Health’s Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, said: “Mortality rises by 19% in winter months in England, amounting to 27,000 excess deaths or 1,560 more people per week.

Twitter / @KennethPGreen

@Revkin Trenberth et al hit skeptics for speaking out-of-specialty & end letter opining about policy&economics! Gall! on.wsj.com/wjgB5U

Twitter / @Revkin

@JBAndrsn @WSJ And all of them sucking on the global warming funding teat? I bet they are as well as your career. [ACR: If only...]

Climate Researchers Get Their Wall Street Journal Moment - NYTimes.com

On Wednesday I’ll be posting fresh input from some economists, who — whether one likes it or not — are focused on the arena that will largely decide what does and does not happen in the planet’s atmosphere, oceans and frozen places.

Twitter / @MichaelEMann

Go figure. #WSJ publishes 2nd letter of mine in as many months (this one w/ 37 other climate scientists) on.wsj.com/zjnzlf #climatechange

New Study: Russian Astrophysicist Predicts Global Cooling

"We can expect the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of total solar irradiance (TSI) in approximately 2042±11 and the 19th deep minimum of global temperature in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11. After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055±11." --Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Russian Academy of Science, 1 February 2012

2012-02-01T04:00:00.001-06:00

NASA GISS: Earth's Energy Budget Remained Out of Balance Despite Unusually Low Solar Activity

According to calculations conducted by Hansen and his colleagues, the 0.58 Watts per square meter imbalance implies that carbon dioxide levels need to be reduced to about 350 parts per million to restore the energy budget to equilibrium.

Check With Climate [Junk] Scientists for Views on Climate — Letters to the Editor - WSJ.com

there is very clear evidence that investing in the transition to a low-carbon economy will not only allow the world to avoid the worst risks of climate change, but could also drive decades of economic growth

On Dentists, Cardiologists, Climatologists and Evidence-Based Remedies | Watts Up With That?

If you need surgery you DON’T want “a highly experienced expert in the field who has done a large number of the proposed operations.” What you want is “a highly experienced expert in the field who has CONVINCING EVIDENCE THAT HIS OR HER OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL!”
And if before I go to a dentist, I would like evidence that the dentist does not pull the wrong teeth (even on occasion).

CTA - Brussels Office Weblog - Cap and trade approach: "worse than ineffectual"

According to a briefing note published by FERN, which is a non-governmental organisation (NGO) and a Dutch Stichting created to keep track of the European Union’s involvement in forests and coordinate NGO activities at the European level, the favoured policy approach of cap and trade has proved worse than ineffectual.

Balmy winter takes climate experts by surprise

"Boy, is egg on my face," Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said on Tuesday.

2012-02-01T03:50:00.001-06:00

Ukraine cold snap kills 43: ministry

KYIV — Forty three have died of hypothermia in the Ukraine over the past six days as the country has suffered a severe spell of cold weather, the emergency services ministry said Wednesday.
Most were homeless people who froze to death on the streets, while seven were found dead in their homes, and more than 800 people sought medical help for frostbite and hypothermia.

Deadly European cold snap spreads

Police in Poland reported five new deaths on Tuesday, bringing the overall toll for January to 27 as overnight temperatures dipped to minus 30 C.
In Vilnius, the capital of neighbouring Lithuania, one homeless man was found dead Tuesday, bringing the death toll there to eight since Saturday.
In the Czech Republic, a woman was found frozen to death in a garden shed in the capital Prague, police said.
Meanwhile, two died in Romania, raising the death toll to eight since Thursday, the health ministry said.

Oops! Dead battery caused false near-record low temperature reading at Alaska weather station... but it was still really, really cold | Mail Online

The Weather Matrix blog suggests it's plausible that the Jim River location did reach 79 degrees below zero -- and could have been even lower.

'Father' of the Volt Takes on the 'Wrong-headed' Right: #evworld

Let’s leave the “invention of facts” to the left-wing climate-change alarmists.

Email 309, Jan 2008, Phil Jones on London UHI: "1.5 is the average UHI, but it can be up to nearly 5 but as low as 0 on some days"

2012-01-31T19:26:00.001-06:00

Email 309

Bottom line is that central London does have a UHI of about 1.5 deg C. This however doesn't change over the last 45 years. The rate of warming at all the London sites is the same. 1.5 is the average UHI, but it can be up to nearly 5 but as low as 0 on some days - see the distribution histograms.

Email 342, April 2009, Phil Jones: "Climate scientists are 100% confident that they can detect an anthropogenic signal in surface temperature data"

2012-01-31T19:22:00.001-06:00

Email 342

Email 362, Aug 1999, Barrie Pittock: "The great danger of doing things the way we are, in our rush to prepare these IPCC reports, is that we are not submitting this stuff to peer review before using it"

2012-01-31T19:20:00.001-06:00

The great danger of doing things the way we are, in our rush to prepare these IPCC reports, is that we are not submitting this stuff to peer review before using it. This makes it even more important that we bend over backwards to get it right. I know it is a bother, but that is life. I am genuinely sorry to be such a stickler about it, but there we are.

Email 384, July 2004, Michael Mann to Pielke Sr.: "I would think it obvious that peer-review alone is not a sufficient to establish what is "good science""

2012-01-31T19:15:00.001-06:00

Email 384

With regard to your argument, I would think it obvious that peer-review alone is *not* a sufficient to establish what is "good science". That is why we do *assessment*, i.e., use our own expert judgement to assess what is and is not appropriate or relevant for our report within the peer-reviewed literature. I think this is obvious.

Email 385, July 2005, Phil Jones: "The warming from 1915 to about 1940 is generally believed to be due to a slight increase in solar output and a reduction in volcanism."

2012-01-31T18:19:00.001-06:00

Email 385

The warming from 1915 to about 1940 is generally believed to be due to a slight increase in solar output and a reduction in volcanism. The recent warming from 1975 is due to the build-up of greenhouse gases, as they begin to dominate over sulphate aerosol releases. The slight cooling from 1940 to 1975 is thought to be due to industrial development (using lots of dirty coal) increasing aerosol emissions.

Email 451, Jan. 2009, Stephen Schneider: "We are witnessing the "contrarian battle of the bulge" now, and expect that all weapons will be used"

2012-01-31T18:06:00.001-06:00

Email 451

The end of the email Ben attached shows their intent--to discredit papers so they have no "evidentiary value in public policy"--what you resort to when you can't win the intellectual battle scientifically at IPCC or NAS.
Good luck with this, and expect more of it as we get closer to international climate policy actions, We are witnessing the "contrarian battle of the bulge" now, and expect that all weapons will be used.

2012-01-31T18:04:00.001-06:00

E&E: Covering Climate Change in the Age of Digital Media | The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media

ClimateWire editor John Fialka says he believes interest in global warming will return to America’s agenda sooner than most think: “People know the climate is changing, especially if they’re outdoors at all. And they know eventually they’ll have to pay for it.” The first bills may be issued by insurance companies

EU Referendum: Global warming is bad?

Hotter summers could lead to between 580-5900 deaths above the average per year by the 2050s, says the Defra Climate Risk Assessment. But it also says that milder winters could lead to 3,900-24,000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s, significantly more than those forecast to die as a result of hot weather.

“Die kalte Sonne” Skeptic Climate Book Reaches No. 1 On Amazon.de List For Books On Environment And Ecology!

Climate skepticism is doing more than just striking a chord here in Germany. It’s turning into a full blown concert!

2012-01-31T16:23:00.001-06:00

Al Gore on the Story of Rising Seas: From Antarctica to Bangladesh | ThinkProgress

A recent study found that sea level rise of only a tenth of a meter would lead to $2 billion in property damage and affect almost 68,000 people in Washington, D.C.

2012-01-31T16:22:00.001-06:00

NOAA flunks own ‘climate literacy’ test | JunkScience.com

NOAA employees today were asked to participate in a Climate Knowledge Survey.
You apparently get an “A” if you believe in the unscientific Nonsensus.

The Data Show There's Been No Warming For More Than A Decade - Investors.com

Climate: Global warming alarmists won't give up their campaign to spread fear and backward thinking until an ice bridge stretches from New York to Paris. Science, though, says they should.

Warning Signs: Signing Global Warming's Certificate of Death

It has taken a very long time for most of the public to come to the conclusion that they have been the object of an elaborate hoax. In America polls demonstrate that global warming is at the very bottom of their concerns these days. In time, wind and solar power, electric cars, biofuels, and other environmental delusions will join that list.

2012-01-31T14:44:00.001-06:00

What Pachauri Means by ‘Sustainable’ « NoFrakkingConsensus

This is important. It suggests strongly that, prior to becoming head of the IPCC, Pachauri’s support for climate action didn’t rest on objective evidence. Rather, he regarded a global emissions treaty as a useful mechanism – as one more way in which his fantasy of introducing a new ethic to govern human behaviour might be realized.

Sydney finally cracks 30 degrees! « Where’s my Global Warming Dude? By Global Freeze

After a 60-day break, Sydney has finally reached 30 degrees, ending the longest summer run below 30 since 1996/97. In that summer there were 61 consecutive days below 30 degrees.

Geoffrey Boulton and IPCC Secrecy « Climate Audit

A system in which reviewers do not see author responses or review comments from other reviewers until after (and some months after) the final report surely warrants some introspection even if IPCC reviewers have acquiesced in such a system in the past. Nor does such a system appear to me to comply with (reasonable) public expectations that IPCC procedures be “open” and “transparent” – as IPCC officials like to proclaim.
In addition, I would be surprised if this sort of system is compliant with, for example, US federal standards for “influential scientific assessments”, a failure which may well create problems down the road for US agencies seeking to rely on IPCC reports without triggering fresh public comment and peer review.

2012-01-31T14:41:00.001-06:00

Global warming cutting wheat yields - UPI.com

PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 30 (UPI) -- Rising temperatures caused by global warming are cutting wheat yields in India, suggesting difficulties ahead for global food supplies, a researcher said.

April 2011: Bumper crop in UP leads to India's record wheat output

The record wheat production in the country estimated for this year is largely on back of a bumper harvest in the main producing state of Uttar Pradesh, which is forecast to produce about 30 million tonnes of the grain.
Wheat production in Uttar Pradesh this year is estimated to cross 30 million tonnes, an increase by over 9% compared to the last year, on the back of good weather conditions.

2012-01-31T10:00:00.001-06:00

T. Boone Pickens Promises to “Call Out Special Interests” That Oppose His Special Interest

It’s wholly untrue to claim that President Barack Obama is picking and choosing winners in the energy industry, because this administration seems to only pick losers…

Another Day, Another Distortive Attack On Climate Change - Forbes

I’ve been accused on this blog of being mean to climate deniers – of calling them “deniers” when they fancy themselves “skeptics”. Well, what else do we call people who ignore and even distort evidence that doesn’t support their prejudice? I can think of words that are a lot worse than “denier”, but changing our terminology to suit deniers is like calling a thief a businessman just because that’s how he sees himself.

Sorry, But David Attenborough Is Wrong About The Polar Bears

So in fact the population of the Davis Strait increased over the last 30 years, in spite of global warming, from 726 to 2,142. But now it is supposed that they are in decline, in spite of there being no actual population study.

2012-01-31T09:51:00.001-06:00

Texas Heat and Drought Caused by Global Warming, NASA's Hansen Says | InsideClimate News

"Hansen has lost a lot of credibility ever since he's moved to be more of an activist than a scientist," said Matt Dempsey, communications director for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Minority office, which Inhofe leads. "The American people have rejected alarmism on global warming. Global warming has all but gone away on Capitol Hill."

Winter Has Not Died, It’s In Alaska |

For example in Circle Hot Springs, AK on Sunday, 29 Jan 2012 the HIGH temperature was a blistering -49°F, breaking the -44°F record which has stood since 1917. It gets better.
That same day in Circle Hot Springs the low temperature was -58°F breaking the old record of -52°F set in 1941 by six degrees.
...Question: If the all-time temperature record nearly broken for the entire country were a warm record, would NBC News, ABC News, CBS News, and CNN have produced segments on this latest proof of global warming? You know the answer to that question.

Astronomer William Herschel On Sunspots And Wheat Prices In The 17th Century | Real Science

Periods of low sunspot counts correlated with high wheat prices.

The New Nostradamus of the North: Finland and Eastern Europe in a deep freeze - Russia sends nuclear icebreaker to secure shipping

So far the there is only moderate icing in the Gulf of Finland, but the situation will change if the cold weather continues. In an effort to avoid a repeat of the situation last year, when tens of ships were stuck in the ice, Russian shipping officials ordered the world´s largest nuclear powered icebreaker to assist in the Gulf of Finland. The Russian nuclear giant "50 Years of Victory" left its home port Murmansk last Wednesday, and now on its way to the Baltic Sea.

2012-01-31T04:48:00.001-06:00

Little Ice Age result of volcanic eruptions, new study says | Alaska Dispatch

The new research is consistent with other recent studies of the Little Ice Age, notes Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, in State College. The global cooling was attributable to volcanic activity. But the regional distribution and intensity of cold temperatures owed much to the sun's weakened output, he adds in an e-mail.
The sun produces most of its radiation as ultraviolet light, which sees the largest swings in intensity with the rise and fall of the sunspot cycle. Most of the ultraviolet light is intercepted by ozone in the stratosphere; the UV light builds ozone molecules there. Ozone is a greenhouse gas. When solar radiation declines, so does stratospheric ozone, cooling the stratosphere. This changes wind patterns there. These changes eventually work their way into wind patterns in the lower atmosphere, as well.
In a paper in the journal Science in 2009, Dr. Mann and colleagues showed how these shifting patterns during the Little Ice Age – when the sun entered a pronged period of weakened radiation – would have thrown natural climate swings into one phase more often than the other.

Twitter / @BadAstronomer: The WSJ and Daily Mail pos ...

The WSJ and Daily Mail posted articles on climate change that are the wrongiest wrongs ever wronged. is.gd/qPjm5I

Germany's Top Environmentalist Turns Climate Sceptic

Fritz Vahrenholt, one of the fathers of Germany's environmental movement, no longer trusts the forecasts of the IPCC. Doubt came two years ago when he was an expert reviewer of an IPCC report on renewable energy. "I discovered numerous errors and asked myself if the other IPCC reports on climate change were similarly sloppy. I couldn’t take it any more. I had to write this book.”

2012-01-31T04:44:00.001-06:00

Most Snow Since 1966 In Paradiski

The huge Paradiski ski domain in the French Alps which combines Les Arcs, Peisey Vallandry and La Plagne with 425km of piste says snow levels in parts of its vast domain are the deepest they have been at this time of year for 46 years.

The heat trapped by global warming equals 1 million Hiroshima bombs a day | Grist

Our waste heat warms the atmosphere, too — and it’s getting worse | Grist

Mark Flanner of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has calculated that waste heat could directly warm industrialized parts of the world by between 0.4 °C and 0.9 °C by 2100, reports New Scientist.

Drought and Cold Snap Cause Food Crisis in Northern Mexico - NYTimes.com

MEXICO CITY — A drought that a government official called the most severe Mexico had ever faced has left two million people without access to water and, coupled with a cold snap, has devastated cropland in nearly half of the country.

Winter Rain in Eilat, Square Tires in Alaska - Inside Israel - News - Israel National News

Across the ocean in Alaska, which is used to frigid weather, residents are battling extremely low temperatures that have reached minus 60 Fahrenheit and minus 51 Celsius. The freeze has even affected the shape of car tires, making them more square than round.
While Israelis are thrilled at more than three feet of snow on the upper slopes of the Hermon, the snowfall in parts of Alaska have reached 25 feet so far this year.

2012-01-31T04:37:00.001-06:00

Heavy snow leaves 53 dead, hundreds injured in north, west Japan - The Mainichi Daily News

Heavy snow has left 53 dead and hundreds injured in several prefectures in western and northern Japan, it has been learned.
The loss of life came primarily in five prefectures along the Sea of Japan in the Tohoku region and Hokkaido, with 12 dead in Niigata, 11 in Hokkaido, nine in Aomori, eight in Nagano and six in Akita. Reported injuries have already surpassed 574, with over 100 in four of the five prefectures affected most by the strong cold air mass sweeping through the region.

Death Toll From Cold Spell in Ukraine Reaches 30 - ABC News

Ukrainian authorities say that the number of people who died of hypothermia in recent days has reached 30 as the country grapples with an unusually severe cold spell.
The Emergency Situations Ministry said on its website Tuesday that most of the victims were found frozen on the streets. On Monday officials put the death toll at 18 people.

Eugenie Scott - Defending Climate [Propaganda] | Point of Inquiry

for this Point of Inquiry episode, we invited Eugenie to break some news about why she is venturing into a very new and very challenging area—defending the teaching of accurate climate change science in schools from a mounting ideological assault—and how you can help her out.

2012-01-31T04:29:00.001-06:00

Lower temperatures trigger higher gas imports for Romania

Romania has to import an additional 0.7 million cubic meters of natural gas for each additional degree below zero.

Oh good grief! Climate change a fundamental health risk: academic | JunkScience.com

No, humanity’s real risk is severe cooling, which will make life very difficult indeed but claiming that the absurd output of climate models indicates any risk to us, much less that “prompt action on climate change is paramount to our survival on earth” is not merely absurd but utterly irresponsible fear-mongering.

Fatal freeze as Bulgaria faces further ‘Code Orange’ weather warning - Bulgaria - The Sofia Echo

Bulgaria faced another day of record low temperatures on January 31 2012, with a "Code Orange" weather warning in force for the whole country and with the severe weather having claimed two lives the previous day.

Cold wave maintains grip over N China|Society|chinadaily.com.cn

On Sunday, minimum temperatures in the city of Manzhouli in Inner Mongolia reached a record low of minus 44.9 degrees Celsius.

Low temperatures, snow paralize Serbia, claim victims :: EMG :: Business news from Serbia 2010

Some municipalities in Serbia are cut off and unreachable due to the bitter cold, with temperatures in some areas dropping below minus 20 degrees Celsius, and the cold has claimed its first victims.

Serbian Emergency Situation Sector head Predrag Maric said a search was in progress for two elderly people on Mt Suvobor, presumed to have died in big snow drifts, but that it was advancing with difficulty.

2012-01-31T04:17:00.001-06:00

The Blackboard » IPCC vs McIntyre: Round 2.

How exactly did the IPCC try to exact promises of confidentiality from people? Why might they think they could request SteveMc grant them confidentiality?

Volcanoes + computer models = Little Ice Age (not the Sun, stupid) | Australian Climate Madness

As soon as it becomes clear that the Sun has more to do with climate change than anything our puny civilisation can throw at it, the wheels will finally come of the global warming gravy train. So it is little wonder that those with snouts in the trough will do anything to play down the effect of the Sun to ensure that man-made CO2 becomes the only “control knob” on the climate system.
Just as “we must get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”, now we have “we must get rid of the Little Ice Age”. And finally, they’ve worked out how: blame volcanoes (with a little help from a computer model, naturally):

Heavy snowfall in Kabul, Serbia, Romania, Pakistan

Get Ready for Super-Extreme Weather: "We Are Just Now Experiencing the Full Effect of CO2 Emitted [by] the Late 1980s" | ThinkProgress

We’ve set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now.

EU Referendum: Reality bites back

These deaths are just the headline cases. How many more die from that silent killer, hypothermia, without anyone recording the event as such? When the differential mortality figures come in, what will be the seasonal excess?
But even with just the headline mortality, the point is made that cold kills. Defra and its greenie friend may make the case for increased deaths due to global warming. They, however, are talking about potential risks, conditional on warming that is no longer happening. We are talking about the reality.

2012-01-31T04:10:00.001-06:00

Cold hard facts : Prime time : SunNews Video Gallery

A new study found global temperatures peaked... over a decade ago. Marc Morano expands on the news.

U.S. News - 62 below: Deep freeze grips much of Alaska

Anchorage's average temperature for January has been 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, the Alaska Daily News reported. That's well below its average of 15 degrees, and only three other years (1947, 1925 and 1920) have been colder, National Weather Service data show.

Almost 3 Feet of snow in Fulton, NY in 24hrs

As of 12:30 p.m. Monday, 32 inches of snow had fallen in the city, clogging roads and forcing city officials to declare a snow emergency. No unnecessary travel and no parking on roads so city crews can plow the streets.

Epidemiologists are known for their poor grip on logic but this guy beats the band

The Warmist epidemiologist below is perfectly correct that past natural climate changes have been disastrous but the disastrous ones were episodes of COOLING. Periods of warming -- as in the Roman warm period -- were periods of prosperity and civilizational advance. Yet he is trying to make the case that history shows warming to be bad. He must know that history indicates the opposite so I say without hesitation that he is a lying crook of zero credibility on anything. I could go on to dispute more of his patently false claims but what's the point?

1967 : Global Cooling And Prolonged Drought | Real Science

Birds are starving without their customary fare of spring insects.

2012-01-31T04:04:00.001-06:00

Scumbags: Our nastiest, most relentlessly negative political voices - seattlepi.com

--Climate Depot: Emerging from this web site are attacks, often crude but sometimes sophisticated, designed to create doubt about climate change. In charge is a former aide to Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Oklahoma, who pronounced global warming a "hoax."
The site deploys scattergun attacks. It sneers at "power elites" and such prominent greens as ex-Vice President Al Gore and actor Leonardo DiCaprio. (Big Oil and Big Coal are apparently not part of these "elites".) It debunks public investment in alternative technologies ("green failures"). It suggests, against all evidence compiled by the U.N. and NOAA, that the Arctic ice pack is not shrinking and "Global Cooling Coming?"

Rajan's Take: Climate Change: Arctic environment by the middle of this Century

At around 2040-2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new “Little Ice Age” over the Arctic and NW Europe. The past Solar Minima were linked to a general speeding-up of the Earth’s rate of rotation. This affected the surface currents and southward penetration of Arctic water in the North Atlantic causing “Little Ice Ages” over northwestern Europe and the Arctic.

Dr. James E. Hansen

Jan. 30, 2012: Cowards in Our Democracies, Part 2:
How "think tanks" help "work" our democracies for the benefit of the few. [Hansen in this PDF: "Every year fossil fuels kill about 1,000,000 people."]

2012-01-30T20:31:00.001-06:00

Bitter cold records broken in Alaska – all time coldest record nearly broken, but Murphy’s Law intervenes | Watts Up With That?

Jim River, AK closed in on the all time record coldest temperature of -80°F set in 1971, which is not only the Alaska all-time record, but the record for the entire United States. Unfortunately, it seems the battery died in the weather station just at the critical moment.

2012-01-30T17:09:00.001-06:00

Climate Change Has Helped Bring Down Cultures | Observations, Scientific American Blog Network

a major millennia-long climate cooling event known as the “Younger Dryas” coincides with the end of most settlements along the Nile Delta and in modern-day Syria. Skeletons from the era evince “an unusually high proportion of violent deaths, many accompanied by remnants of weapons,” McMichael noted.

Ultra-harsh Alaska winter prompts fuel shortages…too cold for people to use their snowmobiles « Where’s my Global Warming Dude? By Global Freeze

“…temperatures dipping as low as minus 60 over the past few weeks…”

“…relentless extreme cold prevented fuel deliveries…”

“It’s been too cold for people to use their snowmobiles…”

Email 611, May 2008: Former navigator informs Phil Jones how critical sea surface temperatures were gathered: "...peering at the thermometer with a weak torch in the middle of a gale, spilling most of the water, making up readings, copying what others had written before (as it was dark, blowing a hooley and you couldn't be bothered to go onto the bridge wing)"

2012-01-30T15:59:00.001-06:00

Email 611

Dear Professor Jones I have just read with great interest the reporting of your work on sea water temperatures. However, am a little confused by what has been reported. Firstly the canvas bucket v sea water intake differences. We were always taught by the met office that only surface temperatures should be taken using the bucket just dipped into the sea. The design of the bucket greatly reduced colling through evaporation as it was double skinned. The sea water intake is by definition below the waterline. This must remain below the waterline at all stages of loading. So if you take a ship with a lightship draught of 2m its sea water intake will be just below the surface. If you now load that ship, the intake is now some 10m below the surface. This must throw up an enormous variation in readings.
Secondly, the UK register after 1945 greatly increased to its heyday in the 1970s before declining again. During this time the number of reports from UK ships must have grown vastly, dwarfing the number of US sources. This must then through up some variation in temperature reading methods post say the mid 50s.
Thirdly, as a former navigator I remember how hit and miss the whole method was. Chucking this bucket over the side, pulling it back in (trying not to hit the side of the ship and wake the Captain), peering at the thermometer with a weak torch in the middle of a gale, spilling most of the water, making up readings, copying what others had written before (as it was dark, blowing a hooley and you couldn't be bothered to go onto the bridge wing). And I was a pretty conscientious officer.
The met reports from the observing ships is pretty dubious at times. I remember crossing the Atlantic one time and could not understand why there was this isolated fog bank following us across as indicated on the weather fax. Then checked the visibility codes for our reports and found that we had all just been copying the wrong number down. Would be interested to hear some thoughts about the above issues though. BR Phil -------------------------------------------------
Dr Phillip Belcher Professional Development Officer Honourable Company of Master Mariners

Email 541, Sept 2006: Fair-and-balanced Andy Revkin writes to a long list of warmist scientists: "i'm just trying to be sure that folks like all of you take an extra couple seconds to use Inhofe against himself"

2012-01-30T14:02:00.001-06:00

Email 541

cc: Anthony Socci , mann@psu.edu, "Raymond S. Bradley" , Malcolm Hughes , Edward Cook , Henry Diaz , Jonathan Overpeck , jcole@geo.arizona.edu, sasha@ucsd.edu, ajmiller@ucsd.edu, Gavin Schmidt , dshindell@giss.nasa.gov, Eric Steig , "Dale P. Winebrenner" , David Vladeck , "David M. Ritson" , Stephen H Schneider , Mike MacCracken , Phil Jones
, Keith Briffa , Kerry Emanuel , Ben Santer , "Wahl, Eugene R" , Caspar Ammann , Scott Rutherford , dhondt@gso.uri.edu, Juerg Luterbacher , Pete Altman , ccappella@ametsoc.org, Dale Willman date: Tue, 26 Sep 2006 07:06:22 -0400 from: Andy Revkin subject: Re: inhofe & mann & me to: Stefan Rahmstorf
I know. but he still speaks to and for a big chunk of America -- people whose understanding of science and engagement with such issues is so slight that they happily sit in pre-conceived positions. that might be one reason he doesn't like this book, which is devoid of easily-attacked spin and scare tactics and lets the science point the way itself. i'm just trying to be sure that folks like all of you take an extra couple seconds to use Inhofe against himself and forward the blog/book link to a few people who might not be aware of this book -- the first on Arctic and global climate change for all readers 10 and up -- and of Inhofe's moves. [1]http://www.amazon.com/gp/pdp/profile/A1L2TYV56JXF2V/ref=cm_blog_dp_pdp/104-4914927-77631 26
Hi Andy, from over here, it is hard to see this kind of Inhofe speach as anything else than an irrelevant piece of absurd theatre. It doesn't even bother me any more - he's simply lost it. Cheers, Stefan

2012-01-30T13:59:00.001-06:00

Scientists Challenging Climate [Junk] Science Appear to Flunk Climate Economics - NYTimes.com

(Of course Climate Depot finds the letter breathlessly exciting.)

German Fear Of Warming Plummets…Yet-To-Be-Published Skeptic Book Climbs To Amazon.de No. 4!

The Church of Global Warming is shattering in Germany, one of the last bastions of the movement. Even the environmental bishops are leaving the Church.

Comment On Gavin Schmidt’s Post On His Weblog Real Climate Regarding The Dominate Role Of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Concentrations On The Global Average Temperature Trends | Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.

Actually, it is straightforward to shed doubt on Gavin’s (and the IPCC) claim. If the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration were so dominate we would expect the global average [annual] lower troposphere temperature to more-or less monotonically continue to rise in the last decade or so. This clearly has not occurred, as illustrated, for example, in the figure below for the lower troposphere

New Scientist on the dangers of green energy « Reasonable Doubt on Climate Change

The green energies could lead to a 3 degree C warming just from waste heat!

2012-01-30T12:10:00.001-06:00

Global warming study casts doubt on “missing heat” hypothesis - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

In a response that was published at David Appell’s Quark Soup blog, Trenberth dismissed the new study’s findings, saying the uncertainties in the ocean heat content data remain too large to draw the conclusion that observational uncertainties are the best explanation for the missing heat. The new study, Trenberth wrote, “seems to have its main point that our earlier paper was wrong. I will certainly disagree with that.”
According to Trenberth, scientists need to significantly reduce the uncertainties in the ocean heat content data before they can suspend the search for the missing heat. “The discrepancies among [upper-ocean heat content data sets] remain huge. We MUST do better,” he told Appell.

[In case you're curious: Pictures of several ClimateGate scientists are available here] | Fellowship of the Minds

Last Tuesday, a new spate of “warmist” e-mails were anonymously released to the public. The e-mails were exchanged among scientists who claim humans are causing a global warming crisis, which requires drastic and coordinated measures on the part of the world’s governments.

Sydney finally cracks 30 degrees

Sydney has just ended its longest summer spell below 30 degrees in 15 years, weatherzone.com.au reports.

Pachauri’s 5-Star Sustainability Summit « NoFrakkingConsensus

it’s taking place in an over-the-top, five-star hotel

Chris Mooney | In Which Climate “Skeptics” Drop the Lysenko Bomb. No, I’m Not Kidding….

the Lysenko charge is self refuting—really, a lot like the charge that President Obama is a socialist.

Arctic Ice Extent The Same As Before The Ice Age Scare | Real Science

The graph below shows what ice extent must have been before satellites were launched. Right where it is now.

BEST Fails To Account For Population and Cold Winters

In the BEST paper, Dr. Muller failed to notice the change in UHI effect in northern stations, and thus missed the fact that cooling is really taking place in the continental U. S. as for myself, I wonder how cold it will be before Berkeley Earth discovers the cooling.

Email 1414, March 2007: Kevin Trenberth on the political process of changing the IPCC Summary for Policymakers in a 2007 meeting at which journalists were barred: "It was hardly a closed meeting or process"

2012-01-30T10:53:00.001-06:00

Email 1414

A brief response along the lines that there were various drafts of the report, but the final process of building a consensus among the political delegates who were present in Paris is obviously not understood. It was hardly a closed meeting or process. The SPM was indeed approved line by line by governments in Paris from 29 January to 1 February, 2007. The rationale is that the scientists determine what can be said, but the governments help determine how it can best be said. Negotiations occur over wording to ensure accuracy, balance, clarity of message, and relevance to understanding and policy. But the basic scientific message was not changed and Wasdell's claims have no basis in fact.

Environmentalism is fascism

Summaries are not scientific statements. They are written during multi-day meetings where every line is agonizingly word-smithed on a giant screen in front of 195 government reps. AR2007’s Summary writing proceedings ran 48 hours non-stop. Enviro-activists may observe these proceedings but journalists are barred. Journalists glean info on these proceedings by interviewing green activists. When the Summary is released, the AR is held back to render fact-checking impossible during the media furore. When the AR is released, the matter is no longer newsworthy.

Email 1409, Sept 2009: Tim Osborn asks Phil Jones why New Zealand pre-1930 temperatures are "now very different, being much cooler (by > 0.5 degC for a 25-year low-pass mean)"

2012-01-30T10:39:00.001-06:00

Email 1409

For my update I've used CRUTEM3v, expecting them to be rather similar but with a few more years on the end.
But the pre-1930 temperatures are now very different, being much cooler (by > 0.5 degC for a 25-year low-pass mean) in CRUTEM3v than CRUTEM2v. Previously they had been, on average, near or even above the 1961-1990 mean, now they're at -0.5 degC.
Is this a result of some homogenization work on New Zealand summer temp data? Or just some random artefact of minor changes somewhere?

Email 1395, Oct 2000: Bad weather in various places around the world; this allegedly wouldn't have happened if we didn't drive cars

2012-01-30T10:26:00.001-06:00

Email 1395

The group says extreme weather worldwide in the last three months has included storms in Taiwan, Brazil and Canada, floods in Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam and India, fires in the US, Italy and the Balkans and droughts in Burundi, Croatia, Kenya and Iran. Roger Higman, Senior Climate Change Campaigner at FoE, said: ``Dangerous climate change is already happening. The storms and floods we are now seeing will get more frequent and more severe. We desperately need cuts in the use of coal, oil and gas to prevent the worst forecasts coming true. ``That means the Government must stick to a fuel price policy that discourages the use of cars.'' World leaders will be under pressure in the Hague to agree a complex set of rules for carbon trading to try to avert the climate change disaster.

Email 1359, June 2004, Phil Jones on getting out of jury duty: "I just said I had meetings to go to (which was true once), the second I said the new students were coming in late September. The fact that I have little to do with U/Gs didn't seem to matter"

2012-01-30T09:25:00.001-06:00

Email 1359

The Jury service sounds a pain. I've been called a couple of times over the last 10 years but managed to get out of it both times. I just said I had meetings to go to (which was true once), the second I said the new students were coming in late September. The fact that I have little to do with U/Gs didn't seem to matter.

2012-01-30T09:13:00.001-06:00

Rebound effects could undermine carbon savings | Sylvia Rowley | Guardian Sustainable Business | guardian.co.uk

Research is patchy, but modelling suggests that up to 30% of energy saved by improving the insulation of homes or the fuel efficiency of cars may be undone because people drive more or turn up the heat once it's cheaper.

Tesco drops [insane] carbon [dioxide] -label pledge | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Tesco has dropped its plan to label all its products with their carbon footprint, blaming the amount of work involved and other supermarkets for failing to follow its lead.

SpaceShipOne man, Nobel boffins: DON'T PANIC on global warming • The Register

Gleick goes on to point out that he has recently organised a pro-warmist open letter signed by no less than 255 scientists, not just a measly 16 – and none of them ignorant rocketeers or astronauts either – but the WSJ turned this down.

More settled science: Volcanoes may have caused the Little Ice Age that Phil Jones didn't believe in

2012-01-30T09:06:00.001-06:00

Study may answer longstanding questions about Little Ice Age | UCAR

BOULDER -- A new international study may answer contentious questions about the onset and persistence of Earth’s Little Ice Age, a period of widespread cooling that lasted for hundreds of years until the late 19th century.
The study, led by the University of Colorado Boulder with co-authors at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations, suggests that an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions triggered the Little Ice Age between 1275 and 1300 A.D. The persistence of cold summers following the eruptions is best explained by a subsequent expansion of sea ice and a related weakening of Atlantic currents, according to computer simulations conducted for the study.

...The researchers set solar radiation at a constant level in the climate models.

Flashback: 2007: Phil Jones says it's important "not to cling to outdated concepts of the past such as the MWP and LIA" [Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age]

2012-01-30T08:58:00.001-06:00

John Cook and his award « Shub Niggurath Climate

Following all the questions raised about his blog John Cook has managed to respond. Or not.
Cook says that people complain about his penguin pictures and creative logos. Please visit Head Asploder Joe Romm where he calls Richard Lindzen, William Happer, Roger Pielke Sr, John Christy and a host of others, ‘fools’. Who does he turn to for support? John Cook of course. You can see this page where Cook has rounded up pictures of sceptical scientists and has them displayed as though they were a bunch of common criminals, with their mugshots in a gallery.

Severe cold snap, heavy snow kills at least 36 people in eastern Europe, 2 others missing - The Washington Post

Ukraine’s Emergency Situations Ministry said 18 people died of hypothermia and nearly 500 people sought medical help for frostbites and hypothermia in just three days last week. Twelve of the dead were homeless people whose bodies were discovered on the streets.

Richard Branson is the leading figure most trust on climate change action > Trends > Research | Click Green

Business leaders topped the poll, with Sir Richard Branson at number one, followed by runner-up Bill Gates and Sir Alan Sugar in sixth place.
Meanwhile eco-warrior Leonardo DiCaprio, one of Hollywood’s most committed green stars, languished in 19th place, with no more influence than celebrities not known for green issues such as David Beckham, Lady Gaga and Cheryl Cole.
The results also showed that US political figures could have a bigger influence on us than our own leaders. Former vice-president Al Gore and US President Barack Obama were in 4th and 5th place, ahead of the Prime Minister (9th) and London Mayor Boris Johnson (10th).
Royal influence is alive and well, with Prince Charles taking third place in the ranking.

Cooling climate with mini ice ages | thetelegraph.com.au

Australian climate sceptic Professor Ian Plimer said yesterday: "People are finally waking up to the fact that climate change models have been assuming there's a constant sun. These predictions show that the great ball of heat called the sun guides our climate more than anything.
"It is the dominant factor, above the supposed impact of emissions."
The Met Office said any weakening of the sun would cause a reduction in temperatures of about 0.08C up to 2100, while greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would see rises of 2.5C by 2100.

2012-01-30T08:51:00.001-06:00

AGI.it - DOZENS KILLED BY COLD WEATHER IS EASTERN-CENTRAL EUROPE

(AGI) Warsaw - Dozens of people have died from the cold in central and eastern European countries last weekend. With temperatures falling to below 27 degrees Celsius, ten people died in Poland bringing the death toll for this winter to 46. Eighteen people died in the Ukraine over the past four days. Most people died of hypothermia and many were homeless or were elderly or ill.

The Reference Frame: HadCRUT3: 2011 was 12th warmest year

I also hope you have noticed that the trends from 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2010 have been negative.

Another Blow for the Climateers | Power Line

The problem for the warmenists is growing, as the actual temperature trend is starting to undershoot even the low end bound of most of the climate models. A few years of flat temperatures could be written off to the chaotic noise of random year-to-year variation, but after two decades (1980-1998) of a more or less steady rise of nearly 0.4 degrees C that seemed to validate the models and the projections, it looks like the warmist case is falling apart rather quickly.
Keep your eyes out to see whether this news is reported anywhere in the American media.

Climategate ruling: FOIA requests cover backup servers too • The Register

A landmark FOIA ruling last week will have far-reaching consequences for how public servants interpret their Freedom of Information obligations. Specifically, public servants cannot delete local copies of a file on their PC and then use its absence as an excuse not to disclose the file - if a backup copy exists on the organisation's systems. In other words: backup servers must be searched for FOIA requests.
...
After the first batch of Climategate emails surfaced, they contained what the Information Commissioner's office described as evidence a breach of the Act. MPs demanded an enquiry, which was held in March 2010. At this enquiry, Lord Acton, The University of East Anglia's Vice Chancellor, testified that no emails had been deleted. How could he do this?
We now know this was a semantic deception. The Palutikof email describes staff moving all their emails to memory sticks. As David Holland summarises:
"How else could Acton tell Commons Select Committee that they didn't delete anything, that we [UEA] have all the emails and they can be read. What Russell and Acton didn't tell MPs or the Information Commissioner, is that they were on memory sticks and backups."

Email 1335, Nov 2005, Michael "Robust Debate" Mann on the prospect of attending a workshop also attended by a guy who disagrees with him: "If Zorita is in, I am out!'

2012-01-30T06:38:00.001-06:00

Email 1335

cc: Phil Jones
, Keith Briffa , Heinz Wanner date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 10:26:33 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Workshop: Participants/ 1. Circular to: Christoph Kull
Christoph,
Can I please have an explanation of what happened here???? You sent out a list yesterday of partipipants that we had all agreed upon. Today, you sent out emails to a DIFFERENT list, inviting an additional participant (Zorita) who we SPECIFICALLY DISCUSSED and decided (as I understood it) would not be invited because of personality conflict issues. At the very least, this needed further discussion, not unilateral overruling without notice.
I'd like an explanation of what happened here. I do not believe that this event will be constructive and amicable with Zorita's participation. If the recommendaitons of the organizers are not going to be followed, I am unsure I can participate in or endorse this event. If Zorita is in, I am out!
Mike

Email 4862, Keith Briffa to the whining Mann

We simply will not allow you to withdraw . You know perfectly well that you are too important in all this to take such action. If it requires my talking to Eduardo and getting him to withdraw , then so be it.

Email 1336, Phil Jones, Mar 2006: "I can say for certain (100% - not any probable word that IPCC would use) is that the surface temperature data are correct."

2012-01-30T06:29:00.001-06:00

Email 1336

So starting in March 2006, no need to ever go back and adjust the pre-2006 instrumental data, correct?

Email 1317, Oct. 2000, on CRU: "Five lead authors for the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are drawn from the unit...The work of Jones and co-workers with [CRU's temperature] record can justifiably be claimed to have been central to the acceptance that humans are having a significant impact on climate"

2012-01-30T05:52:00.001-06:00

Email 1317

The Climatic Research Unit undertakes pioneering research on the nature, predictability and impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change, maintaining a position as a world authority in the field. Five lead authors for the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are drawn from the unit. The global land and marine surface temperature record maintained by the Unit is used extensively in climate change studies. The work of Jones and co-workers with this record can justifiably be claimed to have been central to the acceptance that humans are having a significant impact on climate. Jones has also been involved with many of the climate change detection exercises which have attempted to attribute recent changes to human influences.

2012-01-30T05:45:00.001-06:00

The World Today - Scientists say global warming changes currents 30/01/2012

FELICITY OGILVIE: Dr McPhaden says the scientists were surprised to find a link between climate change and the changes in the currents.
MICHAEL MCPHADEN: We always knew that the western boundary currents of the world's oceans were hot spots for ocean circulation but now we are finding they are hot spots for climate change and the combination is very much a surprise to us. [Hat tip: M. Hulme]

Finland in the deep freeze all this week | News | YLE Uutiset | yle.fi

The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) predicts severe cold to continue
until at least next weekend. Early Monday, a new cold record for this winter
was set in Kuhmo, where the mercury plunged to -35.4 degrees Celsius.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Highest Since At Least 2006 | Real Science

EU Referendum: What happened?

A recent study at Brown University looked specifically at the Obama administration's language and calls for "clean energy" and "energy independence" now occupied the terrain. Graciela Kincaid, a co-author of the study, wrote: "The phrases 'climate change' and 'global warming' have become all but taboo on Capitol Hill. These terms are stunningly absent from the political arena".

A dangerous shift in Obama’s ‘climate change’ rhetoric - The Washington Post

My colleague Maria Mansfield and I monitor 50 major newspapers in 20countries, and we documented that explicit mentions of “climate change” and “global warming” dropped by more than a third from 2010 to 2011.

Email 1304, Dec 2002, warmist Tom Wigley on a critical climate hoax model: "SCENGEN is also owned by me. All of the conceptual and intellectual input has been mine"

2012-01-30T05:20:00.001-06:00

Email 1304

date: Wed, 18 Dec 2002 11:40:34 -0700 from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: MAGICC/SCENGEN to: Mike Hulme
Mike,
A quick reply -- SCENGEN is also owned by me. All of the conceptual and intellectual input has been mine. You and the people who have worked for you have really been little more than technicians or software engineers.
Tom. _______________________
Mike Hulme wrote:
...Also to be clear about credits as you say - I always aim to make it very clear to people that the MAGICC model is "owned" by you and Sarah.

MAGICC/SCENGEN: Home

MAGICC consists of a suite of coupled gas-cycle, climate and ice-melt models integrated into a single software package. The software allows the user to determine changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global-mean surface air temperature, and sea level resulting from anthropogenic emissions
SCENGEN constructs a range of geographically explicit climate change projections for the globe using the results from MAGICC together with AOGCM climate change information from the CMIP3/AR4 archive.

Email 2530, June 2003, Phil Jones: "note that I've changed the way we smooth the series to preserve the late 20th century trend, like we did in the Eos piece"

2012-01-30T04:14:00.001-06:00

Email 2530

Also, note that I've changed the way we smooth the series to preserve the late 20th century trend, like we did in the Eos piece. I've always estimated the uncertainties a bit more conservatively as described in text--so they're a bit expanded now. None of the conclusions change, although the globe is actually a bit more anomalous in the late 20th century when you spreserve the late 20th century trend in the smoothing, so I've tweaked the wording there just a bit... [Hat tip: AJ]

2012-01-30T03:52:00.001-06:00

Climate Change [hoax] body gets $85m World Bank funding

THE Zambia Climate Change Network (ZCCN) has received about US$85 million from the World Bank to facilitate the implementation of a climate resilience pilot programme in Zambia.

How I woke up to the untruths of Barack Obama - Telegraph

A later passage in Obama’s speech, when he hailed the way his country’s energy future has been transformed by the miracle of shale gas, met with a storm of applause...
Even more telling than his audience’s response to this, however, was what happened when Obama referred briefly to the need to develop “clean energy on enough public land to power three million homes”. But no mention now of vast numbers of wind turbines – those props beside which he constantly chose to be filmed back in 2008. No harking back to his boast that “renewable energy” would create “four million jobs”. And even to this sole fleeting reminder of what, four years ago, was his flagship policy the response of Congress was a deafening silence.

Chris Mooney | [Warmist English Major imagines that he needs to "explain" science to climate realists]

2012-01-30T03:46:00.001-06:00

Oh, the humanity: Higher Temperatures in U.S. East May Cut Energy Use by 20% - Bloomberg

Milder weather in much of the central and eastern U.S. next week may mean the region will use about 20 percent less energy for heating than usual, according
to David Salmon of Weather Derivatives.

BBC News - UN panel aims for 'a future worth choosing'

Growing inequality, environmental decline and "teetering" economies mean the world must change the way it does business, a UN report concludes.
..."Economies are teetering. Inequality is growing. And global temperatures continue to rise.
"We are testing the capacity of the planet to sustain us."

OneSteel gets $64m ahead of carbon tax | Finance | BigPond News

Manufacturer OneSteel will receive $64 million to help it prepare for the introduction of federal government's carbon tax in July.
Climate Change Minister Greg Combet on Monday announced the advance payment had been finalised under the government's $300 million Steel Transformation Plan (STP).
OneSteel expects to receive the payment within 30 days and it will be recorded as income in the company's financial statements for fiscal 2012.
Labor finalised a similar $100 advance to BlueScope Steel in December.

New evidence for climate impacts on ancient societies

European summer climate during the Roman Era about 2,000 years ago was relatively warm and wet and characterized by less variability. Increased climate variations from around 250-600 A.D. coincided with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the exceptional turmoil of the Migration Period during which the continent’s population was substantially reordered.
The new study also revealed that humid and mild summers paralleled the rapid cultural and political growth of Medieval Europe, whereas unfavorable climate may have played a role in the underlying health conditions that contributed to the devastating economic crisis that arose in connection with the Black Death plague pandemic in the 14th century. More recently, temperature minima in the early 17th and 19th centuries coincided with large-scale settlement abandonment during the Thirty Years’ War and the modern mass migrations from Europe to America.

New peer-reviewed study: "The record provides evidence for substantial warmth during Roman and Medieval times, larger in extent and longer in duration than 20th century warmth"

2012-01-30T03:29:00.001-06:00

Variability and extremes of northern Scandinavian summer temperatures over the past two millennia 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.01.006 : Global and Planetary Change | ScienceDirect.com

The new reconstruction is based on 578 maximum latewood density profiles from living and sub-fossil Pinus sylvestris samples from northern Sweden and Finland. The record provides evidence for substantial warmth during Roman and Medieval times, larger in extent and longer in duration than 20th century warmth. The first century AD was the warmest 100-year period (+ 0.60 °C on average relative to the 1951–1980 mean) of the Common Era, more than 1 °C warmer than the coldest 14th century AD (− 0.51 °C). The warmest and coldest reconstructed 30-year periods (AD 21–50 = + 1.05 °C, and AD 1451–80 = − 1.19 °C) differ by more than 2 °C, and the range between the five warmest and coldest reconstructed summers in the context of the past 2000 years is estimated to exceed 5 °C. Comparison of the new timeseries with five existing tree-ring based reconstructions from northern Scandinavia revealed synchronized climate fluctuations but substantially different absolute temperatures. Level offset among the various reconstructions in extremely cold and warm years (up to 3 °C) and cold and warm 30-year periods (up to 1.5 °C) are in the order of the total temperature variance of each individual reconstruction over the past 1500 to 2000 years. These findings demonstrate our poor understanding of the absolute temperature variance in a region where high-resolution proxy coverage is denser than in any other area of the world.

2012-01-30T03:24:00.001-06:00

15 minimum temperature records broken on Monday - FOCUS Information Agency

15 meteorological stations on the territory of Bulgaria have measured record-low temperature, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology with the Bulgarian Academy of Science announced for FOCUS News Agency.

Obama 'End of America-Ism": Sad Variant of Global Warming Alarmism - Forbes

it’s time we start addressing the sheer arrogance of the alarmist point of view. The earth was here long before us, and will be here long after us. Simple vanity makes us assume we’re incredibly significant, but the greater truth is that as measured against the planet on which we reside, we’re the proverbial ant on the elephant’s posterior.

Valley under deep freeze, Kargil records season's lowest

Witnessing one of the harshest winter in decades, the Kashmir Valley experienced an extremely chilly night with a drastic fall in the night temperature even as the remote town of Kargil recorded the lowest temperature of the season at minus 25 degrees.

My theory of climatology and the driveway — Maine Living — Bangor Daily News

Conclusions about warming result from tens of thousands of climate scientists compiling and analyzing information in minute detail for decades, all checking and rechecking each other’s work all the time.

Flashback: Bishop Hill blog - A chat with Graham Stringer

The most devastating admission from Jones at the HoC was 'nobody ever asked', when Stringer inquired who else had seen his data during nearly 20 years of 'peer review'

2012-01-30T03:16:00.001-06:00

Is Global Warming a Real Threat or Just Hype?

[Bernard Goldberg] Like I said, I’m no scientist, so what do I know? Glad you asked. I know that just about every mainstream journalist this side of Pluto believes global warming is real, mainly caused by man, and will destroy us if we don’t act. If so many journalists believe that … then I know it’s probably not true.

Expedition duo set for 784km North Pole trek - The Irish Times - Mon, Jan 30, 2012

...on their first attempt in 2010, one of the party of three, John Dowd, developed frostbite in his fingers and they had to abandon the expedition.
The impact of global warming has made the traverse to the North Pole one of the most difficult challenges for adventurers.

The State of the Hoax: Obamaism Collapses Worldwide - The Rush Limbaugh Show

RUSH: Great editorial in the Wall Street Journal -- and I'll tell you another reason I loved Santorum last night. He actually referred to global warming as a hoax. ...Spain has had its Sputnik moment. They were the Soviets, and they lost.
"Spain's government suspended subsidies for new renewable energy plants as part of the administration's efforts to curb the budget deficit. The government today passed a decree that will halt subsidies for new wind, solar, co-generation or waste incineration plants, as it bids to rein in electric system debts that reached 24 billion euros ($31 billion)," by the end of last year. So Spain, green energy, green jobs, they lost all kinds of stuff, economy went in the tank, and now going further, suspending subsidies for renewable energy plants. Obamaism is collapsing everywhere around the world it's being tried.

Making Climate Media Creative — in the Extreme | The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media

Journalist Eli Kintisch wants to get back to reporting and communicating on climate — the hard science, the findings, the research. But not in the way one might expect of a respected science reporter for one of the world’s most respected science journals … Science.
After communicating science in prose for a number of years — including in his well-regarded 2010 book on geoengineering, Hack the Planet — Kintisch has an expanded calling — to conceptualize and present climate science in a radically artsy way. That means sculpture, design, video, graphic art — a broad genre he calls “visual metaphor.” And he wants to play the role of fixer — or “producer, in the Hollywood sense,” as he puts it — in order to accomplish this unique marriage of fact and form....
The IPCC, for its part, has already released this well-produced [climate fraud] video to highlight some of the report’s findings and areas of concern

2012-01-30T03:04:00.001-06:00

Rajan's Take: Climate Change: UK CRU/Met Office confirms: Warming deceleration trend for last 15 years; Sun hibernation till 2100

The gravy train which NGOs like Oxfam, Greenpeace; ChristianAid, ActionAid (and their likes) had hitched on to during the last two decades are coming to an abrupt end. And as they pick themselves up from the crash, they will find that if they survived, only to end up a laughing stock. Their advocacy and programmes were singularly focussed to “adapting” to global warming at a time when the planet was actually fast hurling into a Little Ice Age. It is the same kind of tragic irony if India were to amass their entire defence forces in the southern coastlines to counter Sri Lanka and Maldives when their real security threats were China and Pakistan on their northern borders! That’s the kind of big hole the burst of the global warming scam punched into the credibility of these NGOs!

Al Fin: Global Cooling: A Return to the Age of a Frozen Thames?

Of course there is a lot more going on with the climate than solar cycles. But thanks to the impressive solar changes that we are witnessing, we may be closer to seeing who the big boss of the climate truly is.
But since many hundreds of billions of dollars in carbon taxes, carbon trades, carbon reparations, and carbon hysteria oriented research are at stake, do not expect the orthodoxy of climate alarmism to take all of this lying down, frozen Thames or no frozen Thames.

Obama’s 22-car salute to gesture politics | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

President Barack Obama goes to the UPS Depot in Las Vegas to promote clean energy:
President Obama proposed several federal initiatives favoring the use of natural gas for transportation, including getting more natural gas vehicles on the road using federal fleets ...
Here is the green-preaching Obama arriving at the UPS Depot in his fleet of 22 fossil-fueled cars

New Forensic Image Processing Tools

2012-01-29T19:29:00.001-06:00

http://www.Real-Science.com/new-forensic-image-processing-tools

I wrote some new tools today, which use saturation, value, gamma correction and sharpness filters to pull USHCN's naughtiness out. I like this version better.

2012-01-29T19:08:00.001-06:00

Winter Weather Leaves 40 Dead From Cold, 32 From flu in Mexico | Fox News Latino

The current winter season in Mexico has left 40 people dead from problems derived from cold and another 32 from flu, the Health Secretariat said.
The agency said in a communique that of the fatalities from cold, 30 were due to carbon monoxide poisoning, seven from hypothermia and three from burns, all of which could be directly attributed to the cold itself or attempts to keep warm.

2012-01-29T19:02:00.001-06:00

Medical experts hit out at climate change sceptics - irishhealth.com

Denying the links between greenhouse gas emissions and man-made climate change "is akin to denying the links between HIV/Aids and unprotected sex, smoking and lung cancer, or alcohol consumption and liver disease", according the the UK Climate and Health Council.
This organisation represents senior editors of medical journals, including The Lancet, the British Medical Journal, as well as top public health doctors....
The council says that despite this, Nigel Lawson's foundation consistently secures significant media coverage, which wrongfully distorts public and policy debate over climate change.
"Perverting the course of evidence-based policy on climate-change adaptation and mitigation damages our health resilience, our economic prosperity and our environmental stability," the council said.
"Transparency around climate-sceptic funders is essential. We support freedom of information to reveal those deliberately preventing the UK's sustainable future."

Size Increase in High Elevation Ground Squirrels over the Last Century - Eastman - Global Change Biology - Wiley Online Library

The increase in body size in the higher elevation species, presumably a plastic effect due to a longer growing season and thus prolonged food availability, opposes the expected direction of selection for decreased body size under chronic warming.

Gov. Brown: High-speed rail system will be 'a lot cheaper' than $100 billion - ContraCostaTimes.com

LOS ANGELES -- Gov. Jerry Brown told a Los Angeles TV station today
that the state's proposed high speed rail system will cost much less than
$100 billion, and will partly be funded by new taxes on major air pollution
emitters.
The governor told ABC 7's "Eyewitness Newsmakers" program that
environmental impact fees paid by industries that emit large amounts of
greenhouse gas will help fund the big train project. California has a "cap and
trade" law that will collect fees if businesses do not reduce emissions, the
governor said.

2012-01-29T18:29:00.001-06:00

Aleutian Ice Extends 300 Miles Further Out Than Normal | Real Science

Ice extends out the Aleutian Island Chain about 300 miles further than normal this year. Those poor Polar Bears have to walk an extra 300 miles. I hope they don’t starve to death.

2012-01-29T18:24:00.001-06:00

Pakistan - Eggs, chicken prices register 50% increase in 10 months

ISLAMABAD: The extremely cold weather has multiplied demand and prices of eggs and chicken in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

A fighting fund for climate scientists battling FOI requests | Rooted

An official fighting fund for climate scientists battling freedom of information requests from well-funded climate denier think tanks has been established in the United States....
Karoly is not aware of any FOI requests against climate scientists in Australia...
“Every hour that I spend dealing with these things means it’s one hour less on either public communication or research time,” explains Karoly. “And I know that there are other climate scientists in Australia that have to deal with the same sorts of issues.”

Mandarins hit hardest by cold temperatures | temperatures, mandarins, citrus - Recorderonline.com

California Citrus Mutual (CCM) estimated Wednesday that approximately 20% of this season’s mandarin crop will be lost to frost damage.
...However, the more than 25 days of temperatures dipping at or below freezing cost growers millions of dollars. The number of freeze nights was a record.

2012-01-29T17:09:00.001-06:00

Panic Attack: Murdoch's Wall Street Journal Finds 16 Scientists to Push Pollutocrat Agenda With Long-Debunked Climate Lies | ThinkProgress

Yes, even school children know more than these guys!
They utterly misrepresent the work of serious climatologists like Kevin Trenberth.

The Global Temperature Record Is Garbage | Real Science

Early in the century, both poles were melting. GISS says this period was cold.

Muller Clueless On UHI | Real Science

Muller’s conclusion that GISS is golden was clueless for many reasons. One of the worst was his assumption about urbanization.

Time Of Observation Bias Assumes That The Observer Is A Moron | Real Science

Anyone who has had a min/max thermometer for more than about three days figures out that you have to reset the thermometer at night. Otherwise, half of your readings are going to be incorrect.
For instance, if day one had a high temperature of 72 degrees at 3PM, the observer took their reading every day at 3PM, and a cold front came through that night – day two would also record a bogus high temperature of 72 degrees.
I figured this out when I was seven years old...

Redding.com Blogs: Doug Craig's blog

And then there is Marc Morano, not my favorite guy since he is one of the major deniers who makes me pretty sure my life mission will end in failure. But Morano is right about one thing. He pegged Obama on the money when Amy Goodman caught up with him in South Africa in early December. Morano said,
His nickname is 'George W. Obama.'...
Obama and other politicians barely mention climate change or global warming anymore. Looks like the deniers won and humanity loses. Congratulations.
Morano's "job well done" is my heart well broken. I shouldn't be surprised.

2012-01-29T17:03:00.001-06:00

Green subsidies axed to ease Spain's financial crisis | Australian Climate Madness

Spain halted subsidies for renewable energy projects to help curb its budget deficit and rein in power-system borrowings backed by the state that reached 24 billion euros ($31 billion) at the end of 2011.

- Bishop Hill blog - Wheat in India

. A satellite image is bit of an odd way to measure grain yields, isn't it?

Hopelessly Stupid – Met Office And UEA CRU Refuse To Learn!

The MAIL interviewed Nicola Scarfetta, who says that eventually they are going to have to admit they are wrong. Judith Curry was more direct, saying: “…the models may have severe shortcomings…’ and that “many scientists’not surprised’”.
Readers, if you like this Mail article, then you are going to like Sebastian Lüning’s and Fritz Vahrenholt’s book: Die kalte Sonne (The Cold Sun). The lay it all out. Only morons and blind ideologues will go on continuing to believe the CO2 bullshit.

Getting Warmer « the Air Vent

So what is really wrong with being warmer? What if we do see those temp increases the government organized IPCC predicts? I don’t really understand people’s incredible ability to react to unproven scenarios of destruction, simply because the scenario was stated. Shut off the power because we are worrying about an unproven ‘end of the world’ claim makes as much sense as not eating so we can save ourselves from heart disease. The world isn’t this clean pristine operating room environment which must be left undisturbed. It is a home in which we live and should care for, but that doesn’t mean we have to try and hold its weather static. The Earth doesn’t hold it static itself anyway. It prefers being colder and that is really bad news for us and I would also guess, the polar bears.

Corruption Of The US Temperature Record

2012-01-29T11:37:00.000-06:00

http://www.Real-Science.com/corruption-temperature-record

It is deeply disturbing that a group of climate activists (Hansen and Karl) have made adjustments which turned a cooling trend into a warming trend.

Accelerating Global Warming Getting Ready To Shock-Freeze Europe!

2012-01-29T11:36:00.001-06:00

http://notrickszone.com/2012/01/29/accelerating-global-warming-geeting-ready-to-shock-freeze-europe/

Reader DirkH brings our attention to a weather warning for the next two weeks from wetter.t-online.de, which warns that temperatures in parts of Germany may plunge to 25°C below zero.

The AR4 attribution statement

2012-01-29T11:33:00.001-06:00

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/the-ar4-attribution-statement/

And of the warming factors, the well-mixed greenhouse gas (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFCs) changes are thedominant term (about 75% of the increase in warming factorsfrom 1950, the rest is related to black carbon effects, ozone etc.).