Tom Nelson

2012-02-03T15:39:00.001-06:00

Global warming forum moves some participants to action — Maine Living — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine

“We can only do so much,” said one of the 15 people who braved snowy weather in Houlton to hear McKibben at Cary Library. “It’s not just greed that has gotten us where we are. We can’t wean ourselves from petroleum soon enough.”
...“Maybe we need more extreme events closer to home,” was another response, referring to weather-related catastrophes that dramatize the effects of warmer air and surface ocean temperatures.

CapitalClimate: Heat Record Numbers Continue Crushing Cold Count Into February, 176 to 0 (Plus 2 in Alaska, You Betcha', Sarah P)

Preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center show 176 heat records broken in the first 2 days of the month, vs. 0 cold records in the lower 48 states, plus all of 2 in Alaska. You betcha', partial-term governor Sarah Palin, it really is cold in Alaska.

Breaking: Much of the Earth not part of the U.S.

[Hansen] noted that the United States covered only 1.5 percent of Earth.

Penn State: In 2010, we investigated those nasty allegations against our employee, and we're pretty sure he didn't do anything wrong

2012-02-03T14:39:00.001-06:00

Penn State defies Facebook campaign calling for it to drop climate lecture | Leo Hickman | Environment | guardian.co.uk

In 2010, Penn State conducted its own four-month investigation into allegations of research misconduct against Mann and a panel of five University faculty members from various fields determined that the scientist violated no professional standards in the course of his work.

2012-02-03T14:36:00.001-06:00

Big Al Tells The Big Lie | Real Science

He is not seeing any melting glaciers, sea level is scarcely rising if at all, and even if the bogus GRACE ice mass interpretations were correct – Antarctica wouldn’t run out of ice for hundreds of thousands of years. Why don’t these scumbags tell us what they are actually seeing?

Huhne is no loss | Watts Up With That?

[Monckton] The sheer cost of these pointless, environment-wrecking “alternative” energy sources is so crippling that European governments, already near-bankrupted by their incompetent management of the mickey-mouse Euro, cannot any longer afford these self-indulgent indulgences. The removal of Mr. Huhne from the scene will at least take Britain one step nearer to sanity, scientific reality and economic common sense about climate change.

No Official Pictures from The Three Stooges | Real Science

The Gore/Hansen/Trenberth/Shemp(Branson) Antarctic propaganda team doesn’t seem to be releasing any photographs of melting snow and ice to the press. Sam Pucci’s pictures show us the problem. This year is so cold, that fresh snow is falling and fresh sea ice is forming at mid-summer.

- Bishop Hill blog - Note it: POST

The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology has published a briefing paper on weather and climate. I've had a quick glance, and this caught my attention.
Natural forms of climate variability are likely to be the main influence on the UK’s climate over the next few decades.

ALEC At It Again, Now Pushing Climate Change Denial in Schools - Campus Progress

State legislators introducing the bills are looking to mandate that public schools give a seat at the table to climate change deniers, suggesting that they are a valid alternative to the over-arching scientific consensus about the human causes of climate change as adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

EU tries to break carbon tax logjam

The European Union on Friday said it was willing to consider whether actions taken by India so far on the reduction of carbon emission will qualify as waiver under the controversial EU decision to impose carbon tax on airlines using EU airports from January 1.

2012-02-03T14:27:00.001-06:00

Proselytizing to Toddlers « NoFrakkingConsensus

Has the UN no decency? Are there no proselytizing-free zones left?
Many jurisdictions frown on advertising that is aimed at children. How, then, can it be OK for green politics to invade child care centers – for innocents to be targeted in their cradles?

Rare Rome snowstorm closes Colosseum | Climate Realists

Rome - Heavy snow fell in central Rome on Friday, giving tourists a rare sight of whitened landmarks such as Saint Peter's Square and the Trevi Fountain, while the Colosseum and the Roman Forum were closed due to the icy conditions.
In the heaviest snowfalls in the Italian capital since the 1980s, around 40cm of snow had settled in the northern outskirts of the city by midday. It is forecast to intensify throughout the day and overnight, before easing off on Saturday.

US Hurricane Strikes Peaked In The 1880s | Real Science

HadCRUT says that the 1880s was one of the coolest decades, yet the US was hit by 26 hurricanes from 1880-1889. The 2010′s have been the slowest on record – so far – with only one (fake) hurricane in two years.

The New Nostradamus of the North: German climatologists: The extreme cold weather in Europe is due to global warming!

We can be assured that the these innovative German scientists will be able to "decrypt a mechanism" showing that even the coming of a new ice age is due to global warming!

Japan Prefecture pleads for help after record snowfall

Snow depth of 4.09 meters, or 13.4 feet, has reportedly built up.

2012-02-03T14:24:00.001-06:00

Global Warming: Are the Skeptics Right?

Global warming -- or "climate change," as it's now called -- is an unbelievably complex subject that's deeply understood by only a handful of people [I would argue that "climate change" is currently "deeply understood" by exactly zero people]

Status Update on UVA/Mann FOIA

At present, it has been one year and one month since we filed our Freedom of Information Request. Only after we filed suit to force their response did we receive about 1,700 emails. We were told they withheld about 6000 others. That 6,000 balloned to 12,000. We got UVA to agree how to select a small set of examples to give the court to test their claims of exemption. (They were claiming that all these 12,000 contained “proprietary” information.)

Collide-a-scape » Blog Archive » Collide-a-scape >> Climate Debate Has Gone MAD

[Tobis] Very few people have a job description of winning the battle for hearts and minds for climate policy, but as far as I know nobody at all has a job description of actually communicating climate science. Meanwhile, there are many people like Morano whose job description is to misrepresent science. Accordingly, he has a case that he is winning.
In military terms Morano is the invading, occupying force and we are the bewildered indigenous people, hidebound by ancient mores and traditions. We haven’t yet developed our own Comanche warriors, who abandon their tribal ways in favor of tactics that really threaten the invaders.

Morano on Canadian TV: Fighting climate billionaires | CFACT

White wealthy environmentalists are telling poor people of color worldwide that they are doing it right -- by remaining poor, with low life expectancy -- but of course these billionaires are not about to change their own lifestyles to fit those of the impoverished peoples they praise.
This is a high-level discussion that should be seen by everybody who pays a utility bill, drives a car, or breathes.

2012-02-03T09:33:00.001-06:00

Once, men abused slaves. Now we abuse fossil fuels | Jean-François Mouhot | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Pointing out the similarities (and differences) between slavery and the use of fossil fuels can help us engage with climate change in a new way

Ed Davey Appointed New Energy And Climate Change Secretary

Mr Davey is regarded as being on the right of the party.

U.S. Meteorologists Split On Anthropogenic Global Warming

Only 19 percent of U.S. meteorologists saw human influences as the sole driver of climate change in a 2011 survey.

2012-02-03T09:28:00.001-06:00

BREAKING: UK climate change minister resigns | Australian Climate Madness

Yesss! Chris Huhne, UK Energy and Climate Change minister (or Mr Windmill 2011, as he should be named) has resigned after being advised he will face charges relating to a speeding violation – but there’s more to it than that.

The Reference Frame: Gore's Antarctic friend needs your help with his tomb

However, his mood changed 10 hours ago when he tweeted the following:
Someone please inscribe something decent on my tomb. [URL]
The link shows the following global warming scenery he is seeing...

Europe Battered By “Worst Cold In 25 Years” – 139 Dead…No Relief In Sight

Bild reports that in Rome, Italy, school was called off today because of the intense cold and the city expects 15 cm of snow overnight.
In Serbia, over 6 feet of snow have fallen over the last few weeks. In Turkey heavy snows have have blanketed much of the country, with 50cm falling in Istanbul on Wednesday.
At Atatürk-Flughafen in Istanbul 180 flights were cancelled.
According to the BBC: “In Italy, weather experts say it is the coldest week for 27 years.”

Monkeys Given Red Wine to Beat Cold in Kazakhstan

NewsCore) - A Kazakhstan zoo resorted to giving its monkeys red wine to help them survive the cold weather.
Each primate in the Karagandy zoo is being given a daily tipple of French wine, as outside temperatures in the northern city reach as low as minus 27 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 33 degrees Celsius).

222 dead as cold snap grips Europe | MNN - Mother Nature Network

In the last seven days, a total of 222 people have died from the cold weather, according to an AFP tally.

2012-02-03T09:22:00.001-06:00

Ukraine - Bitter cold kills 101 people, disrupts normal life

Sub-zero weather may last through Feb. 14.
A severe cold snap plunged temperatures to lows of minus 30 C this week, killing at least 101 people, closing schools, delaying flights and, in general, hobbling daily life.

Hansen Making Junk Up As He Goes Along | Real Science

Hansen reached his conclusion decades ago, and then started collecting data to prove it. After the data failed, he started altering the data and making up nonsensical theories that cold is caused by warm.

Climate Change Dispatch - Agenda-driven “science” at EPA

[Soon/Driessen] It has become increasingly obvious that EPA’s real goal is to assert its authority over ever-increasing segments of our economy; reinterpret medical and scientific studies to fit its regulatory agenda; and replace as many coal-fired power plants as possible with costly, unreliable renewable energy systems.
American voters, elected officials and courts need to challenge these radical, unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats, demand an end to EPA’s distortion of science and reality – and reverse these flawed rules.

Chevy Volt "Aliens" | Super Bowl XLVI Ads | Chevrolet Commercial - YouTube

2012 Chevy Super Bowl Commercials: From the coolest car on the block to the smartest technology in the galaxy. A man walks in on a curious group of intergalactic creatures checking out the advanced technology of his Chevrolet Volt.

Coldest European Temperatures In A Century | Real Science

thousands of schools were closed, hundreds have been hospitalised with hypothermia and some areas have seen temperatures plummet to their lowest levels in a century.

Monckton responds to Skeptical Science | Watts Up With That?

Mr. John Cook, who runs a website puzzlingly entitled Skeptical Science” (for he is not in the least sceptical of the “official” position) seems annoyed that I won the 2011 televised debate with Dr. Denniss of the Australia Institute, and has published a commentary on what I said. It has been suggested that I should reply to the commentary. So, seriatim, I shall consider the points made. Mr. Cook’s comments are in Roman face: my replies are in bold face. Since Mr. Cook accuses me of lying, I have asked him to be good enough to make sure that this reply to his commentary is posted on his website in the interest of balance.

Hayhoe on left-wing radio compares CO2 to "a tiny grain of the most deadly poison in the world"; D.R. Tucker claims that the climate realist movement is "intellectually dead"

2012-02-03T05:17:00.001-06:00

The Green Front - 2/1/12 - The Green Front - Progressive Radio Network

[her segment starts at the 5:50 mark] The scientist whose chapter on climate change got dumped by Newt Gingrich - the candidate who wants to colonize the moon - will talk about that experience. Katherine Hayhoe, atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech and author of "A Climate For Change: Global Warming Facts for Faith Based-Decisions", has been in the national news for weeks.

At the 14:30 mark, Hayhoe says: "If you think that humans aren't big enough to affect the planet, all you have to do is look at the pollution in the air you can see it with your own eyes! If you think that carbon dioxide doesn't make up enough of the atmosphere to have an impact, well what would happen if you took a tiny grain of the most deadly poison in the world? It might be so small you couldn't see it, but it would be enough to kill your entire body, which is much bigger!"

At the 28:25 mark, the host refers to Marc Morano as "Marc Moronic".

At the 31:10, D.R. Tucker says that Morano went after him, and "whatever he [Morano] is for, politically, I am against...Any ideology that tolerates that sort of behavior is a movement or an ideology that is intellectually dead as opposed to science, which is intellectually alive."

2012-02-03T04:57:00.001-06:00

EU Biofuels Targets To Cost €130 Billion, Study Says

European Union policies to promote the use of biofuels for transportation will cost consumers as much as 126 billion euros ($166 billion) between now and 2020, two environmental groups said.

Twitter / @PeterGleick: @roygrubb: A beautifully p ...

@roygrubb: A beautifully presented case study of the tactics of climate change denial...http://t.co/LOla0zWg. And a takedown of WUWT scams.

Twitter / @skepticscience: Peter Sinclair's 1st piece ...

Peter Sinclair's 1st piece for Yale Forum on Climate Change: explains why sea level fell in 2011 bit.ly/z2u3TB

Climate change crock [video] - Ezra Levant

From The Source, Feb. 1, 2012: Climate change dissident, Marc Morano, on the UN’s attempt to keep developing nations in climate chains with eco taxes and threats of climate court.

Poor, minority residents face most health risks with climate change | California Watch

UC Berkeley physics professor Richard Muller, a onetime skeptic who changed his position on climate change after conducting research funded by other skeptics, said that while “there is evidence of climate change that is visible to scientists but not to the everyday person,” the state public health department’s analysis is of limited use.

Sierra Club took $26M from natural gas - Dan Berman - POLITICO.com

The Sierra Club took $26 million from one of the nation's largest natural gas companies for three years while at the same time hawking natural gas as a clean, green energy source, the group admitted Thursday.

New York Times loses $40million in 2011 | Mail Online

The New York Times Company suffered a net loss of almost $40million in 2011, with its fourth quarter profits falling by 12.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2010.

Record lows recorded at 38 locations | The Japan Times Online

The nation experienced severe cold weather Friday with temperatures dropping to record lows at 38 locations in the morning, the Meteorological Agency said.

2012-02-03T04:24:00.001-06:00

The Gore Effect kicks in, plus ça change … | Watts Up With That?

even Antarctica can’t resist the Gore effect.

What do you get when you rub two climatologists together? | Watts Up With That?

The 38 must somehow disagree with Susan Solomon, whose 2010 article in Science attributing the lack of recent warming—that the 39 deny—to unanticipated changes in stratospheric water vapor with no known cause.

Australian politics update | Australian Climate Madness

Primarily for our international readers, I thought it might be useful to review the current political situation in Australia. Why? Because if the present government loses power, our famous (or should I say, infamous) carbon tax will go too.

Warmer waters "good for coral growth" | Australian Climate Madness

So it is interesting to read that a new study in Science (peer-reviewed, for what that’s worth these days) shows that corals around Australia are thriving in slightly warmer temperatures

Climate Common Sense: Travesty Trenberth attacks real scientists!

Would you however go to a doctor death who had been proved wrong in most of his diagnoses, who falsified results and prevented good doctors from examining the patient for an accurate diagnosis? Because the "travesty" statement is a matter of public record and the "lack of warming" is factual and agreed by skeptics the unfortunate Trenberth is defending the indefensible and on this subject his credibility is zero.

Over 60 people die in cold spell in Russia in January - FOCUS Information Agency

Moscow. More than 60 people froze to death in Russia in January, announced the Russian Healthcare Ministry, cited by RIA Novosti.

Record low temperatures kill over 160 in Europe - Thenews.pl :: News from Poland

Weather forecasters are predicting that the freezing temperatures which have killed over 160 in Europe will continue in Poland and Central Europe until the middle of the month.

Government must convene climate change hearings | Scoop News

“Despite the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels over the
past decade and a half, there has
been no overall global warming in this period,” said
Harris. “Instead of continuing to sidestep the issue, or
even to help fuel the global warming alarm, it is time for
the Canadian government to convene cross-country climate
change hearings to inform Canadians about the real state of
science. Alarmists have had their way long enough. It is
time for climate realists to be heard.”

In case you missed it: Revkin claims that Michael Mann's "Critics can feel free to debate him"

2012-02-03T04:16:00.001-06:00

A Shameful Attack on Free Speech by a Group Claiming to Speak for Coal-Dependent Workers - NYTimes.com

Nonetheless, here’s the note that I submitted in place of the offered language (my note was rejected automatically, perhaps because I’m not from Pennsylvania):
I’ve covered climate science fairly and accurately since 1985, including through more than 15 years as a reporter at The New York Times. Even though I’ve disagreed with him on some matters, I strongly support the right of Professor Michael Mann to speak at Penn State or anywhere else on the subject of climate change. Critics can feel free to debate him, but have no right to muzzle him.

Can people like Marc Morano, Lord Monckton, etc really feel free to debate Mann on TV about the global warming hoax? I think Mann is absolutely terrified of the idea of debating climate realists, in public or private.

2012-02-03T04:09:00.001-06:00

- Bishop Hill blog - Hilary on Burton

Hilary Ostrov posted this in the comments to the Burton Richter thread. Worthy of a header post IMHO.
There once was a laureate named Richter
Who issued an obiter dicta:
That I am be-medalled
Means the science is settled
I can tell by one glance at the picture

Climate Skeptics Win Big Victory In Climategate Scandal!

Jones and his cronies in the climate alarmist camp must be wetting themselves over this decision – since they have a long and dishonorable record of declining to provide their alleged data to climate skeptics.

EU Referendum: Watermelons kill

There lies the ultimate terror – when greens and bureaucrats combine, death follows in their wake.

Global Economic Damages from Tropical Cyclones – Sins of Omission | Watts Up With That?

What the abstract and the PR release did not emphasize, and the UPI missed totally is that with or without any climate change the global damages from the present to 2100 will decline, from 0.04% of global GDP to 0.02% of GDP!

A Shameful Attack on Free Speech by a Group Claiming to Speak for Coal-Dependent Workers - NYTimes.com

If you disagree with the views of a prominent climate scientist, one approach might be to attend his forthcoming lecture at his home campus, Pennsylvania State University, and engage in civil debate when he’s done.

- Bishop Hill blog - Silencing your critics

Firstly, there is a petition to have Michael Mann disinvited as a speaker at a public lecture at his home university, Penn State, a kerfuffle reported in indignant terms by Andy Revkin here. (In passing I'm struggling to recall similar indignation from Revkin over all the disinvitations to sceptics -perhaps my memory is failing me, or perhaps it's the attempt to show public support for a disinvitation that is upsetting him).

Dozens killed as icy weather grips Japan « Where’s my Global Warming Dude? By Global Freeze

Heavy snow that has blanketed northern Japan for weeks, triggering avalanches and affecting transport networks, has left at least 55 people dead.

The Reference Frame: Astrophysicist Grygar on global warming and everything

What does the most likable face of Sisyfos think about it? He gave an answer I could totally subscribe to. Oceans and other parts of the Earth make the Earth stable and hospitable for life. However, there are also processes that add fluctuations and irregularities. We know from geological and similar records that such things have been occurring in the past, too. So from a cosmic perspective, there's nothing unusual going on with the Earth right now.

Very fair. I am sure that the AGW alarmists wouldn't be satisfied. ;-)

2012-02-02T17:44:00.001-06:00

Coal-Powered PAC Runs Harrassment Campaign Against Climate Scientist Michael Mann | ThinkProgress

The suggested text for the letter to editor says Mann is “conspiring with his left-wing cronies to intimidate and silence those who would dare to question his intentions,” tarring Mann with “questionable ethics” and “extreme political activism.”
Michael Mann, one of the most most respected scientists in the field of paleoclimatology, has been the victim of a long-running harrassment and intimidation campaign by right-wing ideologues and conspiracy theorists

Twitter / @Revkin: Speaking Truth in Love: Ka ...

Speaking Truth in Love: Katharine Hayhoe, climate scientist & evangelical Christian, on Climate Change: bit.ly/wibIaW

Twitter / @Revkin: Responding To Growing Disa ...

Responding To Growing Disasters, States To Require Insurers To Disclose Climate Change Plans thkpr.gs/ytHMfJ via @thinkprogress

Avalanche closes 2 major highways in Alaska | Deseret News

Pachauri Pushes Emissions Reduction – Again « NoFrakkingConsensus

According to its website, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a “policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” organization. But it’s difficult to take that claim seriously when its chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, continues to lobby hard for one policy in particular.

IPCC Rejects Anonymous Review « Climate Audit

This is perhaps the stupidest argument – even by IPCC standards. Once again, the pretence of infallibility. There are problems with the named reviewer approach. I can understand an argument that, after considering a balance of problems, an institution might choose one method rather than another. But worrying about the impact on infallibility is not a valid reason.

Collide-a-scape » Blog Archive » Collide-a-scape >> Climate Debate Has Gone MAD

Now before I go any further, let me state outright that I am not equating Marc Morano’s tactics with those of the Taliban. The latter is comprised of a brutal, extremist culture that terrorizes its own people in horrific ways. Morano merely uses excessive rhetoric and hyperbolic language to advance his aims. He runs an operation that has a political aim: To delegitimize climate science. To do that, he and his allies engage in a propaganda war that goads his opponents and smears the reputations of individuals prominently associated with the climate change cause.
His tactics, while ugly, can in no way whatsoever be compared to the actions of the Taliban. I’m merely saying that he is an insurgent who (with like-minded allies) has successfully forced the other side into a defensive crouch. The climate concerned community is fighting a battle on on his terms.
Morano-inspired fighters, like the Taliban, have also convinced themselves (or pretend to) that they are winning the war against their foes.

This is funny: Warmist Phil Plait imagines his income increasing by two orders of magnitude if he were to say that global warming wasn't real

2012-02-02T17:30:00.001-06:00

A case study of the tactics of climate change denial, in which I am the target | Bad Astronomy | Discover Magazine

Think on this, Dr. Briggs; how much money would I make if I suddenly turned coat and said global warming wasn’t real? I’ll guarantee you it would be a lot more than I make now, probably with a couple of zeroes added to the end.

Email 618, June 2009, "Takehiko" to Phil Jones: "I want to discuss several climatic topics concerning unusual warm periods in 1850s and 1860s just after the end of LIA. Recently in Japan, old instrumental temerature records were found during this period near Tokyo, in which several unusually hot summers were detected."

2012-02-02T16:16:00.001-06:00

Email 618

Email 1105, Nov 2007, Phil Jones: "there are lots of climate meetings - seems as though you could go to one almost every week"

2012-02-02T16:08:00.001-06:00

Email 1105

That's one thing that has really jumped out at me as I've read through the 5000+ ClimateGate 2 emails.
These planet-healers seem to be constantly talking about meeting in faraway places.

Email 1345, July 2004, Philippe Huybrechts: "The most robust feature of all these runs is that the rate of glacier retreat for the second half of the 20th century is always the same, irrespective of the starting point of the climate forcing, and irrespective of whether the 20th century climate was cooling, warming, or stable."

2012-02-02T15:36:00.001-06:00

Email 1345

Email 707, May 2001, Tom Wigley: "I personally do NOT want anyone else developing software that overlaps MAGICC/SCENGEN"

2012-02-02T15:33:00.001-06:00

Email 707

I personally do NOT want anyone else developing software that overlaps MAGICC/SCENGEN. I would also be extremely annoyed if Tyndall should support work that is clearly our territory; or even if Tyndall/Hulme should encourage such work. Indeed, Mike should contact this person and point out that his behaviour is quite intolerable. At the very least it breaches the bounds of normal scientific etiquette. [Wigley]

Email 531, Dec 2003

[UEA's Rachel Warren] FYI : the new versions of MAGICC and SCENGEN have been provided to me as executables.
So far, Tom Wigley has declined to give me the source code! Apparently he is not giving the
source code of the new SCENGEN to anyone at all. Tim Mitchell thinks it's no great loss and that
he could easily create an alternative, which he plans to do anyway as a part of Nigel Arnell's Tyndall round 3 project.

Email 717, Sept 1998, Michael Mann disses climate modelers: "there are a few individuals in the modeling community who could benefit from slowing down on the stone throwing from their fragile glass tower"

2012-02-02T15:07:00.001-06:00

Email 717

As for your general comments, they get to some essential points. The modeling community leaders are probably about as skeptical about our paleo-reconstructions as we are of their sulphate aerosol parameterizations, flux corrections (or more worrying, supposed lack thereof in some cases!), and handling of the oh-so-important tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interface... So my personal philosophy is that more than one side here can benefit from extending the olive branch, and there are a few individuals in the modeling community who could benefit from slowing down on the stone throwing from their fragile glass tower :)
More to the point, though, I strongly believe the paleo community needs to present an honest but unified front regarding what we all agree we can definitely, probably, and simply not yet say about the climate of the past several centuries, and plan strategies that will allow us all to work towards improved reconstructions without stepping on each others toes.

Email 719, Aug 2003, UEA's Andrew Watson: "[IPCC] preferred estimates of the size of the land and ocean [carbon] sinks were out of date before they were published, and quite substantially wrong"

2012-02-02T15:00:00.001-06:00

Email 719

I'm not sure of the reason why, but the degree of insight on the marine side of the carbon cycle was considerably less than that on the terrestrial or atmospheric side in the TAR. Almost un-noticed, for the TAR, the IPCC moved from the use of ocean carbon cycle models as the primary method of gauging the ocean sink, to the use of atmospheric O2/N2 measurements. They did not notice (or at any rate did not highlight) the significance of the large discrepancy between these two techniques when applied to the period of the 1990s, which was a clear indication of something amiss in the assumptions underlying the O2/N2 method. One result is that their preferred estimates of the size of the land and ocean sinks were out of date before they were published, and quite substantially wrong. This has not enhanced the IPCC's reputation in this area of science. Getting the ocean CO2 fluxes right is important because we are much closer to being able to specify the ocean sink over wide areas from primary measurement and understanding, than is the case for terrestrial sinks and sources. Thus the main constraints on the natural CO2 sinks come from a combination of atmospheric measurements, and ocean studies. Being fully up to speed with what is happening in marine CO2 studies is therefore critical to the IPCC WG1.

Email 752, Aug 2009, Willis Eschenbach to UEA: ""My dog ate the confidentiality agreements" doesn't cut it in the scientific world, where billions of dollars hang on your data"

2012-02-02T14:56:00.001-06:00

Email 752

Call me crazy, but I don't think that "we think we might have made a confidentiality agreement sometime with somebody from somewhere, but we don't know who or where or when" is an adequate excuse to shield data from an FOI request...Science depends on replicability. You are promoting your dataset as a suitable basis for making billion-dollar decisions on what we should do on regarding the "global warming" supposedly shown by your dataset. But under your secrecy policy, your results cannot be replicated...."My dog ate the confidentiality agreements" doesn't cut it in the scientific world, where billions of dollars hang on your data. If you can't show your figures, you should be ashamed to publish them under the guise of scientific data.

Email 798, Aug 1999, Ed Cook disses "pathetically poor" paper by key climate hoax modeler Tom Wigley

2012-02-02T14:39:00.001-06:00

Email 798

Fred Singer was here on Monday and gave a rather uninspired talk criticizing global warming, etc. He did show an example of the mis-use of statistics in the greenhouse attribution debate and it was one of Wigley's papers. It was the one in which Tom tried to show that the autocorrelation function of instrumental temperatures was far greater than the acf of temperatures from unforced OAGCM models, therefore "proving" that greenhouse gases were forcing instrumental temperatures. It was a pathetically poor paper that had Mark Cane, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, Balaji Rajagoplan (all good maths/stats people), and me just shaking our collective heads wondering what the f*ck Wigley was trying to do. Needless to say, Singer quite easily showed how hopelessly flawed and ridiculous the analysis was, and everyone agreed with him for once.

2012-02-02T14:35:00.001-06:00

The New Nostradamus of the North: The new Greenpeace mega yacht on its way to the sunny Caribbean

Oh boy, it´s tough to be a Greenpeace activist these days!

Nader out of efforts to arrange Inhofe global warming debate | Tulsa World

WASHINGTON -- Ralph Nader has dropped out of efforts to schedule a global-warming debate between U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe and a House Democrat, the Tulsa World learned Thursday.

Obama Won't Touch Climate With a 10-Foot Pole | Mother Jones

So far, Obama and his campaign have been running from climate change. But soon enough, they'll have to embrace it.

- Bishop Hill blog - Nobel laureate on temperatures

Revkin posts what I have to say is an astonishingly fatuous letter from Nobel laureate Burton Richter in response to the letter of the 16 in the Wall Street Journal.

Global Warming Weekly Round-Up Feb. 2nd 2012 « The Daily Bayonet

This week, giant bird shredders cause a Whirling Heat Island effect, Tesco gives up on carbon labels and a man stole a glacier.

2012-02-02T14:31:00.001-06:00

In Davos, Climate Change Is Dead And Buried

Several key things were missing from the mix at this year’s Davos meeting, according to the breakfast panel — young people, women and serious discussion about climate change, to name but a few.

Britain's £7 Billion Solar Energy Fiasco

A plan to subsidise solar panels on homes was “one of the most ridiculous schemes ever dreamed up”, a Government minister has said.

C3: Climate Model Believer Kevin Trenberth: New Research Proves His Precipitation Predictions Robustly Bad

The travesty of Kevin Trenberth's climate predictions is only challenged by those of climate modeler James Hansen - they are both consistently wrong

8 Reasons to Dump That Cheating Doctor (Trenberth et al are wrong in the WSJ) « JoNova: Science, carbon, climate and tax

1. His predictions fail.
2. He uses fallacies to reason — like “argument from authority” instead of empirical evidence.
3. He’s been caught cheating “hiding declines”, trying to get dissenting doctors banned from publishing their work, and worrying what will happen if his patients realize how little he knows: “They’ll kill me probably.”
4. He refuses to debate his radical treatments publicly. “It’s beyond debate”.
6. He doesn’t appear to understand the scientific method – when data disagrees with his theory, he throws out the data and keeps the theory.
7. When you ask him for evidence that the treatment works he keeps saying “Trust me, I’m an expert”.
8. The numbers don’t add up. Where’s the cost-benefit sums? (Like this or this?) His treatment plan means the nation needs to lower it’s quality of life now, … so … our children’s children will live ten minutes longer in 2100?

William M. Briggs, Statistician » On Global Warming Apoplexy: Temperature Trends

It is a sure sign that Sanity has packed her bags and headed for the door when otherwise sober scientists begin slinging around terms like “denier” and “denialist.” Language like this displays willful, pretended, or real ignorance of the historical context of these words. Anybody who talks like this makes himself an ass. They’s fightin’ words which start any discussion on an angry footing, their presence a certain indication we are dealing with zealotry, not science.

WSJ ‘No Need to Panic’ Op-ed Prompts Heated Exchanges, Leading to Long-Awaited ‘Last Word’ (Not really of course) | The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media

It’s all enough to make Dotearth editor Andy Revkin, promoting his view that economics trumps climate science in shaping approaches to climate change, murmur “so tired of this crap.”

Sea Level Rise, One More Frontier For Climate Dialogue Controversy | The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media

Residents and civic officials from Delaware to San Francisco and from Galveston to North Carolina’s Outer Banks are learning as they go on preparing for sea level rise risks that some of their residents fundamentally doubt.

Snow forecast for Sahara Desert

Parts of north Africa face six inches of powder, says Meteogroup forecaster Stephen Davenport. “The deep cold is spreading surprisingly far south.”

One person dying every five minutes in Britain due to cold weather

Britain reels from a winter death rate twice as high as some of the world’s coldest countries, according to the Department of Health’s Chief Medical Officer.
Professor Dame Sally Davies said the average increase in winter deaths in England and Wales is 1,560 per week compared to non-winter months, with a “substantial” increase on top of that total expected due to extreme cold this week.

2012-02-02T14:26:00.001-06:00

Climate Change Is Putting Punxsutawney Phil Out of a Job - National - The Atlantic Wire

"This is the most philosophically perplexing Groundhog Day ever," noted CNBC's John Carney.

Terminator on green mission - The Times of India

Schwarzenegger delivered a lively keynote address at a session on regional work for sustainability where, as expected, he had the audience eating out of his hands. "I thought I was popular but when Dr Pachauri ( TERI chief, RK Pachauri) visited California, he was surrounded by people who wanted his autograph, wanting to be photographed with him. I felt invisible. It doesn't happen very often," he said. The audience, predictably, was in splits.

Get Involved: How Do You Teach Your Children About Climate Change? - YouTube

A challenge for you. Tell us how you teach your children about climate change without freaking them out, and "without freaking yourself out".

Katharine Hayhoe, Climate Scientist Cut from Gingrich Book, Flooded With Hate Mail - International Business Times

Hayhoe told Texas Climate News she has received dozens of angry emails following Limbaugh's denunciation, especially after the conservative blogger Mark Morano reportedly published her e-mail address on his Web site.

Jellyfish Blooms Not Caused By Global Warming And Overfishing Of Competitors

The Ethics of Climate Change Denial | Risk: Reason and Reality | Big Think

This staggeringly selfish behavior embodies the purest example of what any fair minded person would call unethical. Evil, even.

Michael E. Mann (michaelemann) on Twitter

@tixxit @BadAstronomer Record-breaking seasonal-scale warmth is not just 'weather'; it is at least in part, climate. that's the difference.

Could Climate Change Put the Groundhog Out of Business?: Scientific American

"NEWS FLASH: Groundhog Day cancelled! Phil says he's pretty sure spring *already* arrived in western PA, preempting tomorrow's event," joked climate scientist Michael Mann in a Twitter post yesterday.

Killer freeze grips Europe - Death toll rises to 160

The death toll rose to 160 Thursday as countries from Italy to Ukraine struggled to cope with temperatures that plunged to record lows in some places.
Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Italy, Austria, Serbia, Bosnia, Czech Republic, Greece and Slovakia have all suffered cold-related casualties.

Email 1408, Dec. 2006, UEA's Clare Goodess reports to Briffa/Osborn/Jones on her eavesdropping session next to McIntyre and Wilson

2012-02-02T12:22:00.001-06:00

Email 1408

date: Thu, 14 Dec 2006 07:43:00 -0000 (GMT) from: C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk subject: cafe eavesdropping to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk
Dear all
Thought you might be interested to hear of my encounter this afternoon, sitting anonymously (without name badge) in a cafe round the corner from the AGU venue.
The two sitting at the next table turned out to be Stephen McIntyre (no afiliation on his name badge) and Rob Wilson (Edinburgh). They were talking so loudly it was difficult not to follow the conversation in full. This included a critique of Mann, Moberg, von Storch, Wigley etc. etc and most disturbingly a discussion of the peer review system. Tim and Keith featured quite prominently in the latter!
It was tempting to reveal my identify - but more interesting to listen in detail. I can tell you more next week!
BEst wishes Clare

Email 1432, Jan. 2007, Phil Jones again admits: "we don’t still have the original data"

2012-02-02T12:17:00.001-06:00

Email 1432

I hope this gives you a few things to get started upon. As you might have guessed this is probably not something I want to waste much time on. Almost all the funding for the work on developing these datasets has come from the US Dept of Energy. They are happy with me not passing on the station data, as we make the gridded products, which are much easier to use. Also the raw station data have been modified by use, and we don’t still have the original data (as received, or as digitized by us in the 1980s).

Email 1492, Aug. 2008, Phil Jones on various FOI officers' (and the Information Commissioner's) strategy to not share IPCC-related information

2012-02-02T12:11:00.001-06:00

Email 1492

Keith/Tim still getting FOI requests as well as MOHC and Reading. All our FOI officers have been in discussions and are now using the same exceptions not to respond - advice they got from the Information Commissioner. As an aside and just between us, it seems that Brian Hoskins has withdrawn himself from the WG1 Lead nominations. It seems he doesn't want to have to deal with this hassle. The FOI line we're all using is this. IPCC is exempt from any countries FOI - the skeptics have been told this. Even though we (MOHC, CRU/UEA) possibly hold relevant info the IPCC is not part our remit (mission statement, aims etc) therefore we don't have an obligation to pass it on.

Email 1499, May 2000, Mick Kelly, UEA: "CA are lookign for someone to say more extreme events likely in future due to global warming at lanuch of new campaign...they are getting desparate"

2012-02-02T12:03:00.001-06:00

Email 1499

CA are lookign for someone to say more extreme events likely in future due to global warming at lanuch of new campaign. I've said I won't do it but did say I'd ask around. Frankly, I'd advise against as the impression I have is that this really does amount to 'rent a quote'. I'm not into peddling doom and gloom anyway. Oh, date is May 15th. Let me know asap if you are interested as they are getting desparate. Mick

Email 847, May 2003, warmist Tom Wigley is far too impressed by his own climate model: "One of the nice results is that we can use MAGICC to back out the signal from the noise...MAGICC can simulate both volcanic responses (on a monthly to century time scale) and solar responses (annual to century) with extremely high fidelity"

2012-02-02T10:45:00.001-06:00

Email 847

One of the nice results is that we can use MAGICC to back out the signal from the noise. Sarah has some material that I sent her showing that MAGICC can simulate both volcanic responses (on a monthly to century time scale) and solar responses (annual to century) with extremely high fidelity. Ask her to show you.

Email 914, March 2000, Phil Jones: "As all our (Mike, Tom and CRU) all show that the first few centuries of the millennium were cooler than the 20th century, we will come in for some flak from the skeptics saying we're wrong because everyone knows it was warmer in the Medieval period."

2012-02-02T10:36:00.001-06:00

Email 914

CO2 Science : Medieval Warm Period Project

Email 1573, Feb 2004: UEA data fudgers get their ninth successive 3 year grant from the US Department of Energy

2012-02-02T10:15:00.001-06:00

Email 1573

See good news below. Janice will get the revised forms done and sent early next week for $175K each year. Presumably you're happy to continue to be on the same arrangement as before. Janice tells me this will have to stop once you reach 65 - well the September after, so Sept 2005 (if I've remembered your birth year OK). I recall you sending an email about this a few months OK, or about your contract with UEA. Once the confirmation comes from DoE I'll be able to extend your contract till September 2005. I can also then fill in the forms I have to here now re contracts. The employment laws change here wrt retirement in 2006 - new EU rules, but this won't affect you. If you'd been a year younger (maybe 2) you might have been able to continue beyond 65. By my reckoning this will be the 9th successive 3 year grant. I have a report on my shelf from 1979/80 (Jim Salinger's name on it as well as yours). This might have been a 2 year one. 3 year contracts seem to have started in 1981.

Email 1577, July 2009, Phil Jones admits that CRU doesn't have the original, unadjusted data; he also writes "I'm the only one who knows where the files are here"

2012-02-02T10:10:00.001-06:00

Email 1577

From looking at Climate Audit every few days, these people are not doing what I would call academic research. Also from looking they will not stop with the data, but will continue to ask for the original unadjusted data (which we don't have) and then move onto the software used to produce the gridded datasets (the ones we do release). CRU is considered by the climate community as a data centre, but we don't have any resources to undertake this work. Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get - and has to be well hidden. I've discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data. We are currently trying to do some more work with other datasets, which will get released (as gridded datasets) through the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). This will involve more than just station temperature data. Perhaps we should consider setting up something like this agreement below [1]http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/surface/met-nerc_agreement.html I just want these orchestrated requests to stop. I also don't want to give away years of hard effort within CRU. Many of the agreements were made in the late 1980s and early 1990s and I don't have copies to hand. I also don't want to waste my time looking for them. Even if I were to find them all, it is likely that the people we dealt with are no longer in the same positions. These requests over the last 2.5 years have wasted much time for me, others in CRU and for Dave and Michael. Some of you may not know, but the dataset has been sent by someone at the Met Office to McIntyre. The Met Office are trying to find out who did this. I've ascertained it most likely came from there, as I'm the only one who knows where the files are here.

Email 1614, Oct 1998: Mike Hulme to an EDF researcher who wanted to blame CO2 for Southern Africa drought: "Avoid this one - and indeed avoid pretty much all climate indicators related to precipitation. The large natural variability of precip. makes it very hard for a human-induced climate change trend to be picked up"

2012-02-02T09:34:00.001-06:00

Email 1614

1. Southern African rainfall. Avoid this one - and indeed avoid pretty much all climate indicators related to precipitation. The large natural variability of precip. makes it very hard for a human-induced climate change trend to be picked up.

Email 1619, Nov 2003, Michael Mann offers a cover story in an attempt to explain why "the full data set could not be made available until a few years after the '98 study"

2012-02-02T09:22:00.001-06:00

Email 1619

Note that the full data set could not be made available until a few years after the '98 study, because we had to give various researchers who provided us unpublished data on a proprietary basis the opportunity to publish those data first.

Email 1621, Dec 2008, lots of interesting statements by Phil Jones: "The SOI, PDO and others are natural modes of variability - that the atmosphere likes...we've no idea why the oscillation change"

2012-02-02T09:17:00.001-06:00

Email 1621

date: Mon Dec 1 15:13:50 2008 from: Phil Jones
subject: RE: Fall of temperatures around 1945 to: "Ian Strangeways"
Ian, The Earth's atmosphere system is chaotic. Volcanoes alter circulation oscillations by cooling the surface and warming the stratosphere. The Sun does similar things through variations in cloud around the world. The Sun's output needn't change hardly at all. The various oscillations are know to change and have done since they were discovered. This could be internal dynamics of the climate system, but it is also likely that the major forcing factors are involved as well. If the Sun suddenly increased its output - say by 5%, we all wouldn't get warmer. The atmospheric circulation patterns would change to attempt to still move the heat from the equator to the poles. Most regions would get warmer but some cooler. Cheers Phil
...No the natural factors are the Sun and volcanoes. How these factors influence the SOI, PDO and other oscillations is a factor also. The SOI, PDO and others are natural modes of variability - that the atmosphere likes. Solar changes and volcanoes may push the atmosphere towards one of these modes. Anthropogenic forcing is likely to manifest itself as changes in atmospheric modes...Volcanoes probably affect the year after and the year after that. So for Pinatubo, you'd expect to see the effects in 1992 and 1993 (for a 1991 eruption)...but blaming the changes on an Oscillation doesn't help that much as we've no idea why the oscillation change. See the earlier argument in Q2. [Q] Is proof of CO2 involvement post 1975 derived entirely from models or is there evidence in the actual instrumental data? [Jones] Mostly from models - a la Ch 9 of the IPCC Report.

Flashback: On ocean heat content, Pinatubo, Hansen, Bulldogs, cherrypicking and all that | Watts Up With That?

Hansen et al (2011) write in the abstract, “A recent decrease in ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum.”

Email 1636, June 2002: "Fairly thrilling" climate hoax game in development; it'll allegedly help the UN and the World Bank to gain insights; warmist Stephen Schneider is the principal climate advisor

2012-02-02T09:02:00.001-06:00

Email 1636

We are currently engaged in a fairly thrilling project involving realtime player interaction with climate models -- an online interactive game. Attached please find a onesheet that will give you basic information about the project. Dr. Schneider is our principal climate advisor.
The purpose of this game is to educate&engage primarily young people worldwide in the intricate interaction between human consumption and lifestyle patterns, and the global climate, and it does so in a rather unique manner...
We've got a solid international team onboard, composed of scientists, business advisors, creative and IT professionals...
We intend to release the game commercially to the mainstream game consumer age 11 and up, but are also planning an academic/government release and a children's version (considerably simpler) on CD ROM. One of the reasons for making an academic/government version of this game is that we would like to use players' own realworld input to help policymakers and various relevant government and non government bodies (UN, WHO, World Bank, etc.), gain an insight into the dynamics of simulated human and climatic activity, particularly insofar as such insight can illuminate human adaptive capacity in the face of significant or threatening climate behaviour. A good potential use of this game would be to gauge how effective the Kyoto Protocol would actually be, in actual human socioeconomic terms.
I met with Dr. Schneider and Dr. Schellnhuber in New York City (on separate occasions, in April and May, respectively), and they were both of the opinion that Tyndall Centre should play an active role in our project.

Email 1661, Mar 2006, Ed Cook: We know that trees don't function as thermometers for the period where we have thermometer data, but let's just assume that they worked as thermometers for all periods before that

2012-02-02T08:55:00.001-06:00

Email 1661

Obviously I have a vested interest in seeing that tree rings are treated fairly, but I am quite open to the science pointing the way with regards to how the divergence issue affects the use of tree rings as records of past temperature. If someone can show that divergence has happened in the past in a large-scale sense as that for the 20th century, I will be happy to look at the evidence. Otherwise, I think we should err on the side of "no past divergence".

Email 1849, Dec 2003, Michael "Robust Debate" Mann again: "I would STRONGLY encourage you not to bother responding to any of their emails under any circumstancdes"

2012-02-02T07:48:00.001-06:00

Email 1849

Thanks for the message These guys, as Tom W has noted previously, seem to simply to simply want to try to make as big a stink as possible here. They didn't get the media attention they wanted (and got blasted in the one mainstream news article on this that appeared in USA Today a couple weeks back), and they haven't been taken seriously by the scientific community so I guess they're trying to generate any controversies they can. I would STRONGLY encourage you not to bother responding to any of their emails under any circumstancdes. History has proven consistently (talk to Phil!) that they'll simply try to take anything you say out of context, and turn your own words on you. This is what they did w/ the attempts on our part to help then in response to their initial inquiries, which they twist and distort in their comments below (we I only told them I wouldn't respond to further inquiries after the tone of their emails had become unacceptable, and their hostile intent clear--something this guy, as just about everything else, conveniently distorts... They've been making threats against NSF about supposed data policies and even against Ray, Tom Crowley, and others too, claiming that they have a right to all of our data and computer programs (the hubris!). Confidentially, NSF lawyers have found their threats baseless as well as obnoxious, and will be telling them formally that NSF policy in no way legally requires funded scientists to provided their data (let alone computer codes!) for public access, but scientists are *encouraged* to provide their data. NSF will be telling them to stop pestering them. I'm forwarding a formal email (based on numerous informal discussion w/ Dave Verardo) to NSF, which is confidential (!), that provides some more information.... As we all know, we had made all of our data available previously, so the accusations by these bozos are baselss, though we agree that we would have given more care to the completeness of documentation had we known a stunt like this was to be pulled by the contrarians..

Email 1023, April 2008, UEA's Tim Osborn has a good question about exactly how CRU data is fudged: "Is this algorithm written down anywhere?"

2012-02-02T07:21:00.001-06:00

Email 1023

date: Tue Apr 1 15:25:08 2008 from: Tim Osborn subject: "missing" values in CRU TS to: "Ian Harris"
...I'm currently struggling with how to distinguish between actual values in CRU TS 3.0 and values that have reverted towards climatology due to the absence of nearby observations. I found the cru_ts...tmp.stn.nc (and also the ...tmp.cstn.nc) files on /cru/cruts, which are proving useful. Similar .stn. files for DTR and PRE (and for VAP when available) will be useful... can you let me know where they are (and set read permission if necessary). However it would also be good to know the exact algorithm used to grid the anomalies, and how this reversion towards climatology is done (e.g. when do values revert partly towards climatology and when do they revert fully?). Is this algorithm written down anywhere?

Email 1028, April 2008, Phil Jones: "It seems we just need the La Nina to finally wind down and the oceans to warm up a little"

2012-02-02T07:17:00.001-06:00

Email 1028

There is also a head of steam being built up (thanks to a would be Australian astronaut who knows nothing about climate) about the drop in temperature due to La Nina...It seems we just need the La Nina to finally wind down and the oceans to warm up a little.

Email 1038, Dec 2001, UEA's Mike Hulme proposes adding Roger Harrabin (BBC) and Bill Hare (Greenpeace) to the Tyndall [Climate Hoax] Centre's advisory board

2012-02-02T07:13:00.001-06:00

Email 1038

Roger Harrabin (media; Radio BBC)...
Bill Hare (NGO; Greenpeace)

Email 1045, May 1999, Michael Mann already more of an activist than a scientist?: "...I do presentations on capitol hill for USGCRP...Mostly, though, I've been trying to help Mike McCracken and company behind the scenes"

2012-02-02T07:09:00.001-06:00

Email 1045

cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Thu, 6 May 1999 13:48:25 -0400 (EDT) from: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu subject: Re: Straight to the Point to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk
...
Yes, I will be in the Lion's den, so to speak. Not sure how much must stands behind his roar though...We do have to deal w/ the skeptics here somewhat directly. At least, to the extent that I do presentations on capitol hill for USGCRP (I do one w/ Jim Hansen and Malcolm on the 17th of this month), I'm a bit in the fray. Mostly, though, I've been trying to help Mike McCracken and company behind the scenes. We all know what happens when a U.S. scientists becomes a thorn in the side of big business...

Michael MacCracken - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From 1993-2002, Dr. MacCracken was on assignment from LLNL to the interagency Office of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) in Washington D.C., as senior global change scientist. With the Office, he served as its first executive director from 1993-1997 and as executive director of the National Assessment Coordination Office from 1997-2001, coordinating preparation of the first comprehensive national assessment of climate change impacts on the US [16,17]. During this assignment, Dr. MacCracken also served as a co-author/contributing author for various chapters in the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as coordinating preparation of the official U.S. Government reviews of the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports.

Email 2038, Nov 2009, Tom Wigley casually and completely contradicts Phil Jones' explanation for early 20th century warming: Wigley minimizes the sun, doesn't mention volcanoes, and points at NADW; Jones stresses the Sun and volcanoes, doesn't mention NADW

2012-02-02T06:58:00.001-06:00

Email 2038

[Wigley] Here is my text on the early 20th century warming ... "This small solar contribution applies equally to the early 20th century (191040) warming. The observed warming over this interval is about 0.5oC (see Figure 1 and Table 1), while the solar-induced change is either close to zero, perhaps even a cooling (assuming no secular TSI component), or a warming of about 0.02oC with a secular component (Figure 8). At most, therefore, the solar contribution to early 20th century warming is about 4% (even when one assumes a high value for the climate sensitivity). This minimal solar effect has been noted previously by Foukal et al. (2004). So, what caused the early 20th century warming? A possible explanation is that it is the result of a major increase in the rate of formation of NADW (Wigley and Raper, 1987), an idea that is supported by the pattern of warming which is a maximum in the North Atlantic (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1995). We noted earlier that the fact that this warming is similar for the land and the ocean (in fact, the 1910 to 1940 trend over the ocean is greater than over the land) suggests that it is not externally forced (since this would normally lead to warming over the land that was greater than over the ocean), and that it originates in the ocean. This also helps to explain why the land/ocean warming differential that one would expect as a consequence of external forcing has only become evident over the past three decades."

Email 385, July 2005, Phil Jones: "The warming from 1915 to about 1940 is generally believed to be due to a slight increase in solar output and a reduction in volcanism."

Email 385
[Jones] The warming from 1915 to about 1940 is generally believed to be due to a slight increase in solar output and a reduction in volcanism. The recent warming from 1975 is due to the build-up of greenhouse gases, as they begin to dominate over sulphate aerosol releases. The slight cooling from 1940 to 1975 is thought to be due to industrial development (using lots of dirty coal) increasing aerosol emissions.

North Atlantic Deep Water - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is a water mass that forms in the North Atlantic Ocean

2012-02-02T06:34:00.001-06:00

Teen kills mom, sister to save planet - World News | IOL News | IOL.co.za

Kan Ka-leung used a cleaver to hack to death his mother and younger sister, later telling an ambulance officer that fewer people in the world would be more environmentally-friendly, the South China Morning Post reported.

Serbia: 11,000 trapped in remote villages by snow | UTSanDiego.com

BELGRADE, Serbia — At least 11,000 villagers have been trapped by heavy snow and blizzards in Serbia's mountains, authorities announced Thursday, as the death toll from Eastern Europe's weeklong deep freeze rose to 114.

2008?: History of the Climatic Research Unit

This list is not fully exhaustive, but we would like to acknowledge the support of the following funders (in alphabetical order):
British Council, British Petroleum, Broom's Barn Sugar Beet Research Centre, Central Electricity Generating Board, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Commercial Union, Commission of European Communities (CEC, often referred to now as EU), Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils (CCLRC), Department of Energy, Department of the Environment (DETR, now DEFRA), Department of Health, Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Eastern Electricity, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Environment Agency, Forestry Commission, Greenpeace International, International Institute of Environmental Development (IIED), Irish Electricity Supply Board, KFA Germany, Leverhulme Trust, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), National Power, National Rivers Authority, Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC), Norwich Union, Nuclear Installations Inspectorate, Overseas Development Administration (ODA), Reinsurance Underwriters and Syndicates, Royal Society, Scientific Consultants, Science and Engineering Research Council (SERC), Scottish and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research, Shell, Stockholm Environment Agency, Sultanate of Oman, Tate and Lyle, UK Met. Office, UK Nirex Ltd., United Nations Environment Plan (UNEP), United States Department of Energy, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Wolfson Foundation and the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF).

Peeing boy suffers from frost — RT

“Manneken Pis”, a bronze sculpture of a little boy peeing into a fountain, has stopped his daily routine due to Siberian frosts that have reached the Belgian capital.

City authorities fear that freezing water could damage the ‘inner mechanisms’ of one of the best-loved symbols of Brussels.

New February 2 cold record registered in Latvian Zoseni – minus 30.7 degrees Celsius :: The Baltic Course | Baltic States news & analytics

Last night was the coldest February 2 night in Latvia's history: temperature in Zoseni (northeastern Latvia)
reduced to minus 30.7 degrees Celsius, Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Center informed LETA.

The previous February 2 record was registered in 1976, when the reading was at minus 26 degrees in Northern Vidzeme.

Email 2969, Aug 2006, Keith Briffa: "The TAR was, in my opinion, wrong to say anything about the precedence (or lack thereof) of the warmth of the individual year 1998"

2012-02-02T06:14:00.001-06:00

Email 2969

The TAR was, in my opinion, wrong to say anything about the precedence (or lack thereof) of the warmth of the individual year 1998.
The reason is that all reconstructions have very wide uncertainty ranges bracketing individual-year estimates of part temperature. Given this, it is hard to dismiss the possibility that individual years in the past did exceed the measured 1998 value. These errors on the individual years are so wide as to make any comparison with the 1998 measured value very problematic, especially when you consider that most reconstructions do not include it in their calibration range (curtailed predictor network in recent times) and the usual estimates of uncertainty calculated from calibration (or verification) residual variances would not provide a good estimate of the likely error

IPCC TAR Summary for Policymakers

Similarly, it is likely⁷ that the 1990s have been the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the millennium.

Email 2013, March 2006, Richard Alley: "It looked to me like [D'Arrigo] had pretty well killed the hockey stick in public forum...this looks to me to be a really big deal"

2012-02-02T06:09:00.001-06:00

Email 2013

Know anything about the "divergence problem" in tree rings? R D'arrigo talked to the NRC yesterday. I didn't get to talk to her afterward, but it looked to me that they have redrilled a bunch of the high-latitude tree rings that underlie almost all of the high-res reconstructions, and the tree rings are simply missing the post-1970s warming, with reasonably high confidence. She didn't seem too worried, but she apparently has a paper just out in JGR. It looked to me like she had pretty well killed the hockey stick in public forum--they go out and look for the most-sensitive trees at the edge of the treeline, flying over lots and lots of trees that are lesss sensitive but quite nearby, and when things get a little warmer, the most-sensitive trees aren't anymore, and so the trees miss the extreme warming of the recent times, and can't reliably be counted as catching the extreme warmth of the MWP if there was extreme warmth then. Because as far as I can tell the hockey stick really was a tree-ring record, regardless of how it was labelled as multiproxy, this looks to me to be a really big deal. And, a big deal that may bite your chapter... --Richard

Email 1653, July 2004: Steve McIntyre schools Phil Jones on replication and checking

2012-02-02T05:49:00.001-06:00

Email 1653

Again, thanks for your continuing courtesy in this. Replication and checking are fact of life in business (where most of my experience lies), especially when you are communicating with the public. There are very formal processes for this; auditors and securities lawyers, who are among the most highly paid professionals in our society, do little more than replicate and check. If you wish to offer securities to the public, you get used to dealing with questions from them. The corresponding processes in paleoclimate studies (and probably most academic pursuits) seem very casual to me. When studies get used for policy purposes, it seems to me that there is a material change in the level of due diligence is required. This leads to a conundrum: many scholars seem quite happy to have their studies quoted in big reports (like IPCC), but then fail to make arrangements for public archiving of their results and methods and become defensive if they are asked for their data. In the offering of securities, there is an interesting stage that deals with this - if a report by an indepenedent professional (e.g. a geologist) is used in a prospectus, the independent professional has to provide a consent letter authorizing the promoters of the prospectus to refer to his report and to supply the consent letter to the securities commission. The terms of the consent letter impose disclosure requriements on him. This would deal with the situation of someone like Crowley, whose study is quoted by IPCC, but who repeatedly and persistently refuses to disclose his proxy data versions. In a prospectus situation, if the IPCC wished to use Crowley's report, Crowley would have to agree to make his data pulic if asked (which he should probably do on alternative grounds).

Email 71, Mar 2006, Richard Alley: "all the people [at the NRC "hockey stick" committee?] I heard were asked the same thing: Do we know the temperature of a millennium ago within 0.5 C? All gave some qualified version of "no"."

2012-02-02T05:40:00.001-06:00

Email 71

I surely hope you're right, but I would wager a beer that they are less favorable than you'd like. I don't know how you answered, but all the people I heard were asked the same thing: Do we know the temperature of a millennium ago within 0.5 C? All gave some qualified version of "no".

Email 91, Aug 2007, with Wei-Chyung Wang facing fraud allegations, Michael Mann writes: "There are some folks I could put We-Chyung in touch with who could certainly help him out with w/ the legal issues, if he's interested. As you might imagine, I have some experience and numerous contacts now in this area ;)"

2012-02-02T05:28:00.001-06:00

Email 91

cc: Kevin Trenberth
, Gavin Schmidt date: Thu, 30 Aug 2007 13:22:04 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Fwd: RE: review of E&E paper on alleged Wang fraud to: Phil Jones
sounds good Phil, please let me know if there is any way I can be of further help. There are some folks I could put We-Chyung in touch with who could certainly help him out with w/ the legal issues, if he's interested. As you might imagine, I have some experience and numerous contacts now in this area ;)
mike

Climategate: The Jones-Keenan Affair

[Benny Peiser] 24. At no time since Keenan and Wigley raised significant doubts about the reliability of Chinese climate data has Jones taken public steps to clear up the discrepancies regarding Wang's claims and data. It is unacceptable that the scientist who disseminates a data product on which international treaties are based, as well as IPCC reports and countless government policies, should actively seek to suppress information that calls the quality of the data into question, especially after one [of] his colleagues and a leading authority has advised him that Keenan's evidence about the data appeared to be legitimate. Comparable behaviour in the private sector would be subject to severe sanction.

Email 102, Aug 2003, CRU's Mick Kelly confuses weather with climate, wants to "capitalize on this press-wise" if a high temperature record is broken

2012-02-02T05:15:00.001-06:00

Email 102

cc: 'a.ogden@uea.ac.uk' [UEA Press and PR Manager] date: Mon, 04 Aug 2003 07:50:31 +0000 from: "Mick Kelly" subject: What a scorcher... to: 'Phil Jones'; David Viner (d.viner@uea.ac.uk)
Phil and David If we break the high temperature record this week, we really should be prepared to capitalize on this press-wise. How about we draft a short press release? This has been a classic global warming summer circulation-wise so we can dress the story up a bit. I'm around Thursday-Friday this week but only briefly Wednesday. Either of you in Wednesday in case it breaks then? Mick [Kelly] </blockquote>

Email 112, Feb 2007: Michael Mann lashes out at Curtis Covey, who dared to write things like "...the science is not yet settled" in an email to unbelievers Singer and Monckton

2012-02-02T05:09:00.001-06:00

Email 112

date: Mon, 05 Feb 2007 20:13:54 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: [Fwd: IPCC and sea level rise, hi-res paleodata, etc.] to: Stefan Rahmstorf , Gavin Schmidt , Caspar Ammann , Ben Santer , "Raymond S. Bradley" , Malcolm Hughes , Phil Jones, James Hansen
Curt, I can't believe the nonsense you are spouting, and I furthermore cannot imagine why you would be so presumptuous as to entrain me into an exchange with these charlatans. What ib earth are you thinking? You're not even remotely correct in your reading of the report, first of all. The AR4 came to stronger conclusions that IPCC(2001) on the paleoclimate conclusions, finding that the recent warmth is likely anomalous in the last 1300 years, not just the last 1000 years. The AR4 SPM very much backed up the key findings of the TAR The Jones et al reconstruction which you refer to actually looks very much like ours, and the statement about more variability referred to the 3 reconstructions (Jones et al, Mann et al, Briffa et a) shown in the TAR, not just Mann et al. The statement also does not commit to whether or not those that show more variability are correct or not. Some of those that do (for example, Moberg et al and Esper et al) show no similarity to each other. I find it terribly irresponsible for you to be sending messages like this to Singer and Monckton. You are speaking from ignorance here, and you must further know how your statements are going to be used. You could have sought some feedback from others who would have told you that you are speaking out of your depth on this. By instead simply blurting all of this nonsense out in an email to these sorts charlatans you've done some irreversible damage. shame on you for such irresponsible behavior! Mike Mann

PCMDI

Dr. Curtis C. Covey
Research Scientist, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Email 137, Sept 2006, warmist Jerry North asks Mann et al to share their data with McIntyre: "McIntyre does have a point in that most of our research has been supported by US Taxpayers...as scientists we all owe it to each other to share information to the maximum extent possible."

2012-02-02T04:37:00.001-06:00

Email 137

Of course, I have no authority to compel you to do anything with your data and I do not represent the NRC Committee on this matter. I understand that you have spent many days and even years collecting your data under sometimes dangerous conditions. But McIntyre does have a point in that most of our research has been supported by US Taxpayers. I also understand that archiving data is expensive and time consuming (I also know that not all of the archiving and quality control was supported by past grants), but as scientists we all owe it to each other to share information to the maximum extent possible.
So I would like to ask you that if it is feasible to grant McIntyres requests. Despite his sometimes unusual approach to science and scientists, I do believe he is bright, hardworking and sincere.

Email 143, June 2007, your tax dollars at work: $1200 airfare, then $543 per day each to send warmists to Bermuda in high season for proposed climate hoax meeting

2012-02-02T04:31:00.001-06:00

Email 143

...b) Current US Government per diem for Bermuda during that period (April-November is high season): $373 (lodging) + $170 (meals and incidental expenses) = $543/day total (for comparison, total per diem during the balance of the calendar year drops to $454/day).
c) A travel contractor (e.g., Carlson Wagonlit for US Feds., or CIRES, or UK?) could probably do a person-by-person airfare calculation (based on where each participant needs to travel from). But for simplicity here is a gross estimate for each person attending (since clearly airfares may vary considerably): $1200 airfare (which US Feds. anyway are strongly encouraged to use). + $543 * 6.5 days = $3529 (too many days?). + miscellaneous expenses & surface travel costs (cabs, buses, etc.) = $300. Total: ~$5K/person.
d) How many people would you plan to support? Let's say a dozen (according to the SPWG website, there are presently 9 members). 12 x $5K = $60K.
e) Plus there might be local organizational costs (rental of a meeting space, if applicable; coffee/tea; workshop dinner; etc.): $5K?
Bermuda looks fairly pricey!

Email 155, Sept 2008, Met Office's Kate Willett on surprising relative humidity data: "the Marine data showed very significant negative trends"

2012-02-02T04:21:00.001-06:00

Email 155

cc: Phil Jones
date: Wed, 24 Sep 2008 11:54:27 +0100 from: kate.willett@metoffice.gov.uk subject: Re: Downward trend in relative humidity over land? to: Adrian.Simmons@ecmwf.int
Over land I found non-significant and very small decadal trends, with the Northern Hemisphere trend actually being slightly positive. (G = -0.03, NH = 0.07, T = -0.10 and SH = -0.34 - SH data is very sparse and likely of low quality). In contrast, the Marine data showed very significant negative trends but I'm highly suspicious about the pre-1982 data which has a strong positive bias relative to the rest of the timeseries.

Nation-Building: Global warming: is relative humidity increasing or decreasing?

Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit (the global warming skeptic's counter-site to the Real Climate project) points to a new paper that purports to show that the relative humidity of the upper atmosphere is declining rather than increasing as one might expect based on climate models. The implication pertains to how much feedback there is with increase in atmospheric CO2 - a positive feedback (increasing relative humidity) would imply greater temperature change per doubling of CO2 concentration increase, ie making global warming worse, whereas a negative feedback would imply the opposite, that global warming is less of a threat. Note that the debate is only about the magnitude of the increase in temperature change with increased CO2, not a repudiation of global warming outright. In fact the whole issue of relative humidity essentially validates the main assumption of global warming as caused by CO2 in the first place.

Email 297, August 2004, Phil Jones and Michael Mann: This peer review process looks completely corrupt, with warmist Jones rejecting a paper by realists McKitrick and Michaels, and Mann somehow in the loop, wanting to use this "to help bolster the case against MM??"

2012-02-02T04:12:00.001-06:00

Email 297

At 08:11 13/08/2004 -0400, you wrote:
Thanks a bunch Phil, Along lines as my other email, would it be (?) for me to forward this to the chair of our commitee confidentially, and for his internal purposes only, to help bolster the case against MM?? let me know... thanks, mike
At 03:43 AM 8/13/2004, Phil Jones wrote:
Mike, The paper ! Now to find my review. I did suggest to Andrew to find 3 reviewers. Phil

2012-02-02T03:57:00.001-06:00

Science pub talks climate: Rutland Herald Online

Alan Betts of Atmosperic Research in Pittsford will lead a discussion on climate change in Vermont and how to deal with shrinking winters and increasingly floods.

Man who died in Akita avalanche was visiting for cancer treatment - The Mainichi Daily News

"When we were notified about the avalanche, I couldn't believe that it really happened," said Kanda. "Cold weather has continued since late January, causing the surface of accumulated snow to freeze. It may be that a large amount of the new snow that had piled up on the frozen layers collapsed," he added.

Kevin Trenberth the dishonest scientist « Reasonable Doubt on Climate Change

Let’s look at Trenberth et. al.’s statement again : Climate experts know that the long-term warming trend has not abated in the past decade. Does the data in that graph jive with Trenberth’s claim? Not at all. It would seem that climate experts have a real problem here. Nothing in the actual data supports any claim that a warming trend has continued over the past decade.

Northern hemisphere non-Arctic sea ice « the Air Vent

This plot seems to have an artificial step at 1995. There is a significant satellite switch at that point but I haven’t had time to fully research it. Despite my fondness for the massively funded Sea Ice group, I don’t believe right now that it is a non-issue. Long time readers will remember the step in the UAH RSS data.

Another Reason Why The Three Stooges Pretend The World Began In The 1960s | Real Science

Their livelihoods and reputations depending on lying about the past.

PRELIMINARY January 2012 SST Anomaly Update | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on January 25, 2012 are still not showing any signs that the La Niña is weakening. They are at -1.12 deg C.

Record Cold Snap Hits Korea

The Korea Meteorological Administration forecast on Wednesday that the morning low would plunge to -17 degrees Celsius in Seoul on Thursday, the month’s coldest since -17.3 degrees on Feb. 11, 1957.

First Order Draft Release IPCC « the Air Vent

David Appell has released a copy of a FOD AR5 chapter.
http://www.davidappell.com/AR5

Here’s how chemistry Nobelist Mario Molina depicts...

Here’s how chemistry Nobelist Mario Molina depicts building, albeit incomplete, image of a human-heated planet.

Living in a glass house: Things Clive Hamilton says at Catallaxy Files

Here he is comparing climate “denialists” to mass-murdering war criminals
Instead of dishonouring the deaths of six million in the past, climate deniers risk the lives of hundreds of millions in the future. Holocaust deniers are not responsible for the Holocaust, but climate deniers, if they were to succeed, would share responsibility for the enormous suffering caused by global warming.

The Sceptical Compass | All Models Are Wrong

whenever I talk about public engagement I bring up the same points:
a) there is a continuous spectrum of viewpoints;
b) a large number of the unconvinced have numerate backgrounds (off the top of my head, physics, chemistry, computing, engineering, geology and finance seem to come up most frequently);
c) for various reasons, they have lost trust in the way we do, or the way we communicate, our science.

Unusual cold snap strikes North India | Weather Events

The death toll in a cold wave sweeping through northern India has risen to around 135, media reports say.

Would You Choose A Plastic Surgeon With A 99% Failure Rate? | Real Science

Is Manhattan underwater? Are we below scenario C? Hansen has proven himself somewhere between grossly incompetent and insane, and he tells us not to listen to these highly accomplished people.

2012-02-02T03:44:00.001-06:00

The Reference Frame: Siberia overtakes Europe

The weather depends on the place. For example, Britain is excited that it experiences colder weather than the South Pole. You may think that it's no wonder because the South Pole is in the middle of the summer. However, you should be surprised because the temperature anomalies near the South Pole are also negative due to the Gore effect

Twitter / @caerbannog666: @MichaelEMann http://t.co/ ...

@MichaelEMann votervoice.net/Core/core.aspx…
"Join us in calling on ... Penn State to end its support of Michael Mann and his radical agenda."

Twitter / @arrington: "Urinating outdoors or in ...

"Urinating outdoors or in the shower is advocated by environmental activists, including Cameron Diaz, as a way of tacking climate change"

Europe's deep-freeze death toll tops 100 - UPI.com

MILAN, Italy, Feb. 2 (UPI) -- Europe's Siberian freeze spread to France and Italy, with snow covering Corsica, Bologna and Milan, while the European death toll topped 100, officials said.
An estimated 30 people in eastern and central Europe froze to death Wednesday in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine, officials said.

Deep freeze death toll rises to 29 in Poland - National

Another nine people have died from the cold in Poland, bringing the death toll to 29 over the last seven days, as temperatures are set to plummet still further tonight.

Qantas hikes airfares by up to $60

The airline said the federal government's new carbon pricing scheme which begins on July 1 will cost it about $110 million to $115 million in the 2012/13 financial year.

Editorial: Climate data chills global warming alarmism | global, warming, energy - Opinion - The Orange County Register

The Earth's temperature hasn't increased significantly in about 15 years, which wouldn't be big news except global warming extremists had predicted temperatures would soar during that time because of manmade greenhouse-gas emissions.

Politics: Romney takes Fla. with variety of weapons, including a climate attack -- 02/01/2012 -- www.eenews.net

The Romney campaign also exploited a 2008 video in which Gingrich and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) cooperated to promote action on climate change. Those attacks intensified Monday when the campaign suggested that liberal billionaire George Soros helped to underwrite the video by giving $5 million in 2008 to the Alliance for Climate Protection, the nonprofit championed by former Vice President Al Gore that produced the clip.
"It does resonate," Michael Reagan, the adopted son of the party's conservative hero, said of the climate-related attacks on Gingrich, with whom Reagan campaigned across Florida.

Climate change should remain at the top of the local government agenda | Daniel Ratchford | Local government network | Guardian Professional

Four or five years ago, if you asked a gathering of local government chief executives what were the top three priorities for their councils over the next decade, a majority would have included climate change. Ask the same question today, and you'll get a very different answer.
Climate change seems to have fallen off the local government agenda. A recent Local Government Chronicle poll found that 37% of councils are de-prioritising climate change, and 28% are narrowing their ambitions to focus only on reducing emissions from their own buildings.

Monkton's push for an Australia Fox News - The Drum Opinion (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

He also discusses working with Nova, a staunch climate sceptic blogger, and Andrew Bolt to "put together a business plan".

Ukraine cold snap kills 63: ministry - FOCUS Information Agency

Kiev. Sixty-three people have died over the last week as Ukraine battles a spell of abnormally cold weather that has seen temperatures plunging to minus 33 degrees Celsius, emergencies ministry said Thursday, cited by AFP.

It said that eight people died in hospitals, 41 on the streets and 14 in their homes, raising a previous toll of 43. The ministry said that the presumed cause of death was hypothermia.

Email 21, Sept. 2009, Phil Jones: "I've saved emails at CRU and then deleted them from the server. Now I'm at home I just have some hard copies"

2012-02-01T19:37:00.001-06:00

Email 21

Email 38, Feb 2007, Manola Brunet to Phil Jones: "How it is possible that "intelligent" people dedicate their time and energies to audit scientific work and not to work in a more positive way for making real scientific analysis and contributing to push science and knowledge ahead."

2012-02-01T19:33:00.001-06:00

Email 38

I was looking on Sun at Climate Audit web site and I got really upset ! How it is possible that "intelligent" people dedicate their time and energies to audit scientific work and not to work in a more positive way for making real scientific analysis and contributing to push science and knowledge ahead. There are really miserable attitudes among these sceptics! They could use money coming from i.e. Exxon and make reliable contributions ;-) Anyway, their consciences and not the ours will have to respond before thousand of humans beings affected by our changing climate!
Here all media have intensively tracked IPCC's meeting and SPM release. It has been the main news on TVs and newspapers, and all of them highlighted menaces related to a warming world. Nothing about sceptics!

2012-02-01T18:46:00.001-06:00

Our Feverous Earth and Who We Should Consult for Treatment | Southwest Climate Change Network

[Jonathan Overpeck] Now watch the video a third time and imagine what TEN times more warming will look like as the patterns amplify over the next 100-200 years. The entire map will be deep red, much hotter than it is in 2011.

Roger Helmer MEP: Climate Alarmism Is Falling Out Of Favour In The Rest Of The World - But Europe Hasn't Noticed

We might as well hang up a sign in the airports: "Closed for Business". While EU leaders pontificate about prioritising growth and jobs, we have climate mitigation policies in place that massively raise energy costs and force industries, companies, jobs and investment out of the EU altogether. In the name of environmentalism, we force them to go off-shore, to jurisdictions with lower environmental standards.

Twitter / @Autonomous_Mind: How come scientists who wo ...

How come scientists who worked for Exxon are considered tainted on climate change, yet scientists working for WWF are considered impartial?

Twitter / @DennisDMZ: When it comes to global wa ...

When it comes to global warming, one man's "end of the world as we know it" is another man's "it's nice out." dennismillerradio.com/b/Global-Warmi…

Glacier thief arrested in Chile | Environment | The Guardian

Climate change sceptics have acquired a new explanation for why glaciers are retreating: it's not global warming, it's theft.
Police in Chile have arrested a man on suspicion of stealing five tonnes of ice from the Jorge Montt glacier in the Patagonia region to sell as designer ice cubes in bars and restaurants.

Who's with Fraudster Al in Antarctica?

que se sabe irem a bordo:
Al Gore
Maggie L. Fox
Jill Bolte-Taylor
James Hansen
Kevin Trenberth
Hasan Mahmud
Richard Branson
Holly Branson
Sam Branson
Joan Templeman
Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson
Dorrit Moussaieff
James Cameron
Ted Turner
Christiana Figures

What Amount of Global Warming is Human-Caused? – NextGen Journal

Most of the studies estimated that humans caused over 100% of the warming since 1950, and all six put the number over 98%

2012-02-01T18:33:00.001-06:00

It's a Mini disaster! BMW sponsors deadly cold front - Europe - World - The Independent

The mounting fatalities lent a sinister aspect to Germany's practice of allowing companies to sponsor high and low pressure weather systems. BMW, it emerged yesterday, paid the trifling sum of €299 to get the current cold front – named "Cooper" to advertise its Mini – before it started claiming lives. The company plans to name a low pressure area "Minnie" later this year.

US wheat at 4-1/2 months high on Russia's export worries | Business Recorder

A fierce cold snap is engulfing Russia, Ukraine and western European grain producers France and Germany and there are fears deep frosts could damage harvests.

Frost Threatens Colombian Flowers For Valentine's Day - PerishableNews

Europe freeze kills 89, fears rise over Russian gas | Reuters

(Reuters) - Record-low temperatures in parts of Eastern Europe pushed the death toll from Arctic conditions to at least 89 people on Wednesday, and have forced Russian gas provider Gazprom to warn over supplies to Europe.

Climate scientists not cowed by relentless climate change deniers | Print Edition - Physics Today

“Many scientists think they can win by blocking punches. You have to throw them,” says Mandia, who teaches physical sciences at New York’s Suffolk County Community College.

[Examples of Hayhoe's "hate" mail] | Texas Tech scientist sees intimidation effort behind barrage of hate mail

I am afraid [blogger Anthony Watts, a former television meteorologist and prominent climate-change skeptic] has exposed you as something of an academic fool. Try using actual data next time.
Stop using Jesus to justify your wacko ideas about global warming. First, it is an insult to the Lord Jesus. Second, it is insulting to those of us who actually take our Christianity seriously. Third, it is juvenile.
Do you believe in God? If you do, then you must believe that He is all powerful. But believing in AGW contradicts that, because to be able to change the climate in such a manner as you prescribe to would mean that we are more powerful than He is. I know better than that, but it would appear that you and your husband don’t. Maybe you should both take another look at your belief system. I think it needs some adjusting.

KfW Committed 22.8 Billion Euros to Climate, Environment in 2012 - Bloomberg

KfW, Germany’s state-owned
development bank, committed 22.8 billion euros ($30 billion) to
climate and environment projects last year, almost a third of
all its lending, and said it will increase this share in 2012.

Did Plants Freeze the Planet? - ScienceNOW

The first plants to colonize land didn't merely supply a dash of green to a drab landscape. They dramatically accelerated the natural breakdown of exposed rocks, according to a new study, drawing so much planet-warming carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere that they sent Earth's climate spiraling into a major ice age.

Email 1800, Mar 2005, precious question by Phil Jones: "Is the pre-20th century really that important when it comes to [detection and attribution]?"

2012-02-01T14:15:00.001-06:00

Email 1800

From being at the review last week of the vertical temperature trends panel, the issue of reducing forcing uncertainties is important. A number of people think that agreement in the 20th century is all doing to model tuning due to uncertain forcing with sulphates. How to counter this is one area. One of my own pet areas is trying to reduce uncertainties in the paleo record for the last millennium, but again this is one of convincing people that we really know what has happened. So much is being made of the paleo records, but are they that important to detection when most of the work is going on with the 20th century records. Is the pre-20th century really that important when it comes to D&A? Cheers Phil

Email 1811, July 2003, AGU's Public Information Manager brags about unleashing the AGU "publicity machine" to push Mann et al's climate hoax propaganda

2012-02-01T14:06:00.001-06:00

Email 1811

cc: Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Raymond Bradley , Philip D Jones
date: Mon, 07 Jul 2003 16:56:08 -0400 from: Harvey Leifert subject: Re: 03-19 Mann et al. - climate change press release issued to: "Michael E. Mann"
All,
We issued the press release at 3:40 p.m. EDT Monday, July 7. It was sent to 900 science writers worldwide on our distribution list and posted on EurekAlert!, the AAAS web site for science press releases.
Almost immediately, we received requests for the full article from The New York Times, USA Today, National Public Radio, Toronto Star, San Jose Mercury News, Cox Newspapers, Richmond Times-Dispatch, and four freelancers. It was too late for most Europeans to receive the release Monday, so we expect additional requests Tuesday morning.
Thanks to all for your help.
Harvey --
Harvey Leifert Public Information Manager American Geophysical Union

June 2003: Mann: "it would be nice to try to "contain" the putative "MWP""; Jones: "I would hope that AGU/EOS 'publicity machine' will shout the message from rooftops everywhere"

When it comes out I would hope that AGU/EOS 'publicity machine' will shout the message from rooftops everywhere. [Phil Jones]

Email 1817, May 2005, Phil Jones on what the IPCC actually did: They didn't tell us what was in the peer-reviewed literature, they gave us their own [warmist] opinions on which parts of the peer-reviewed literature were correct

2012-02-01T13:49:00.001-06:00

Email 1817

In some parts of our chapter, we omit the poor [ie, non-warmist] papers. Just stressing that we are doing an assessment and not a review. An assessment is our expert view of the science at the present.

Email 1819, Nov 2003, warmist Tom Wigley to Mann et al on possible responses to McIntyre and McKitrick's request for data: "The second is to tell them to go to hell"

2012-02-01T13:42:00.001-06:00

Email 1819

One of their buzz phrases is 'the basic standards of data disclosure'. Personally, I see no reason why one should disclose all data and all methodological details -- unless required to by the funding authority. I had a long exchange with Timo on this issue, which I will forward to you. These guys are primarily accusing you of either making errors or being incompetent. (I have not seen this directly, but they may also be implying that you deliberately distorted your analysis -- but it is best not to get into this possibility.) There are three possible responses. The first is to prove to *them* that your results are correct. The second is to tell them to go to hell. The third is to use an independent arbiter (a statistician) to repeat your analysis...A possible holding action would be to say that a full paper describing the methods used was in preparation, and they just have to wait. (In other words, go to hell for now, and I'll tell you when to come back out.)

Email 4578, July 2005, Phil Jones: "it is possible to get a trend of nearer 0.75 if the trend starts around 1920 (especially if the cold year of 1917 is at the start)"

2012-02-01T12:23:00.001-06:00

Email 4578

date: Mon Jul 18 14:25:52 2005 from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: Text and CQ stuff to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" , Kevin Trenberth
Kevin, Even without smoothing it is possible to get a trend of nearer 0.75 if the trend starts around 1920 (especially if the cold year of 1917 is at the start). The periods chosen for Table 3.2.2 had some justification, so we need to be a little careful. As a schematic for CQ2 though, it will be a different way of showing the same data. I'll talk it over with David. Cheers Phil

But remember since "...the first half of the 20th century warmed up naturally", we can't blame human CO2 emissions for any pre-1950 warming

Climate hoax promoter Michael Mann: For he's a jolly bad Fellow

2012-02-01T12:13:00.001-06:00

Penn State scientists elected to American Geophysical Union

In the late 1990s, Mann with colleagues published the "hockey stick" graph of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past millennium. Based upon so-called "proxy" climate records such as ice cores, tree rings and corals, the graph demonstrates significant global warming in the last century. The graph, which has become a lightning rod for climate-change deniers, and the ensuing controversy are the subject of Mann's soon-to-be-released book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From the Front Lines."

Email 2349, Nov 2003, Energy and Environment editor Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen writes a great letter to Mann, Briffa, Pachauri, etc

2012-02-01T12:10:00.001-06:00

Email 2349

I simply believe that research controversies related to global warming (science, social science, and technology) should be heard by policy-makers and NGOs in a world were vast amounts of limited finance are about to be spend on 'decarbonisation' on the assumption made by most social scientists and many policy people that IPCC summary pronouncements are undisputed and hence are acceptable as uncontroversial baseline for their work on decarbonisation economics, 'clean' technologoly, carbon finance, Kyoto mechanisms etc). I am encouraging research controversy in the public arena rather than editorial boardrooms. For example and to my considerable regret, even the UK Foreign Office and many of my colleaugues in the energy policy research (not in the earth sciences by the way) now believe that they need not pay any attention to scientific issues because all climate skeptics are funded by the oil industry. If this slur is permitted to stand, as it seems to be, then journals like mine are surely permitted to ask and who is funding the 'global warming' modelling community if not governments committed to the UNFCCC, and to explore what agendas have attached themselves to the warming threat.

Email 4582, Feb 2009, Phil Jones on global average surface temperature: "The work that estimated the 14 number (it was 14.02 for the globe) made lots of assumptions over the sea ice areas and the Antarctic. I always thought this was accurate to about +/- 0.5 deg C"

2012-02-01T12:01:00.001-06:00

Email 4582

It would be useful to see what ERA-Interim does get for the global average surface absolute T for your 1989-99 base period. The work that estimated the 14 number (it was 14.02 for the globe) made lots of assumptions over the sea ice areas and the Antarctic. I always thought this was accurate to about +/- 0.5 deg C. It was impossible to explain this accuracy of the absolute vs the much smaller error bars on the anomalies to any journalists.

2012-02-01T11:56:00.001-06:00

Zombie » The Coming of the New Ice Age: End of the Global Warming Era?

The fact that the media and popular culture and academia have veered from one panic-inducing disaster scenario to another one which completely contradicts the first one is funny enough in its own right. But reading The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age opened my eyes to an even more significant aspect of this serial crisis-mongering:
The “solutions” prescribed to solve both Global Warming and the looming Ice Age are exactly the same.
In both cases, proponents of the theory-du-jour say that in order to stave off disaster, we must reverse the march of civilization, stop our profligate use of carbon-based fuels, cede power and money from the First World to the Third World, and wherever possible revert to a Luddite pre-industrial lifestyle.
I realized: The solution (commit civilizational suicide) always remains the same; all that differs are the wildly divergent purported “crises” proffered up to justify the imposition of the solution.

Al's Journal : Troubled oceans at the bottom of the world

king crabs have invaded an area previously considered far too cold for their survival. The impact of the arrival of these predators, for the first time in millions of years, could be catastrophic for the surrounding ecosystem

How, exactly, does Al Gore know that no king crabs have lived in that area for "millions of years"?

Email 4631, Jan 2001, UEA's Mike Hulme recommends a now-defunct "The Carbon Trader" climate scam website

2012-02-01T11:42:00.001-06:00

Email 4631

date: Mon Jan 22 09:07:00 2001
from: Mike Hulme
subject: Fwd: The Carbon Trader - Edition 37 - BP to spend US$650m...
to: e.l.jones
Elaine,
This is a good web site to keep an eye on.
Mike
...thecarbontrader.com

thecarbontrader.com - trader

This domain may be for sale

Email 4653, March 2002, Geoff Jenkins of the Met Office: "...we can only use "will" when we have complete confidence in the direction, ie Temperatures will rise"

2012-02-01T11:38:00.001-06:00

Email 4653

Re your last para: "will" is a difficult verb to use when we quote numbers. We cannot say the temperature rise will be between XdegC and YdegC, even when those numbers span the High to Low Emissions range - because they are all from Hadley model for a start. UNLESS we do as I suggested and preface the stsments with WE PREDICT THAT: Without this preface, we can only use "will" when we have complete confidence in the direction, ie Temperatures will rise.
I know everyone wants to see more certainty, but we have to maintain sceintific credibility.

Email 4847, Aug 1999, Sari Kovats et al: Increasing CO2 emissions would "will cause a net decrease in temperature-related mortality in many cities"

2012-02-01T11:09:00.001-06:00

Email 4847

We suggest..
"Patterns of mortality in many large urban populations exhibit strong seasonal patterns, particularly in temperate climates, and therefore a reduction in cold winters and an increase in warm summers with climate change will cause a net decrease in temperature-related mortality in many cities. This benefit is not as great under the emission scenarios leading to CO2 stabilisation."

2012-02-01T11:07:00.001-06:00

In Climate [Scam] Fight, Tracking the Line Between Diagnosis and Treatment - NYTimes.com

There are valid points hidden deep in the op-ed piece (any presidential candidate should indeed care about bolstering, not shredding, our capacity to monitor and understand climate), but they are interlaced with ridiculous comparisons (Lysenkosism and climate activism)....The reality for most of the signatories of the rebuttal letter is that they are more akin to medical technicians — making sure the thermometers gauging a fever are reliable — and radiologists — interpreting a CT scan — than diagnosticians prescribing the appropriate treatment.

Nobel Peace Prize Jury Under Investigation : NPR

...Geir Lundestad, the nonvoting secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, dismissed Heffermehl's claims.
"Fighting climate change is definitely closely related to fraternity between nations. It even concerns the survival of some states," he told AP.

Email 4868, Sept '05: IPCC reviewer McIntyre asks to see the data underlying a paper; warmists complain this is a "major abuse of his position"

2012-02-01T10:59:00.001-06:00

Email 4868

[McIntyre] I am a reviewer for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 4AR) and am writing in respect to a submission to your journal by D'Arrigo et al., entitled "On the Long-Term Context for Late 20th Century Warming." This article was referenced in chapter 6 of the Draft IPCC 4AR and made available to IPCC reviewers. In the course of my review, I contacted the senior author, Dr. D'Arrigo, for the FTP location of the data used in this article or for alternative access to the data. Dr D'Arrigo categorically refused and I was referred to the journal editor if I desired recourse.

Email 4881, June 2007, Phil Jones: "The final end product looks just like my hope - summers were 0.5 deg C too warm..."

2012-02-01T10:48:00.001-06:00

Email 4881

The final end product looks just like my hope - summers were 0.5 deg C too warm and for winters it is negligible, although it does make it very marginally ccoler.

Email 4887, Dec 2007, Phil Jones: The global temperature record "can be quite well approximated from a solar series (preferably a recent one by Lean), a volcano series and anthropogenic sources (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols)"

2012-02-01T10:20:00.001-06:00

Email 4887

There is no need to invoke any geomagnetic indices to explain the global T record. It can be quite well approximated from a solar series (preferably a recent one by Lean), a volcano series and anthropogenic sources (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols)

2012-02-01T10:14:00.001-06:00

Newt & Nancy’s Loveseat: Brought to You by George Soros | JunkScience.com

Who Gave The Alliance For Climate Protection $5 Million In 2008? George Soros, Of Course. George Soros’ Open Society Institute gave the Alliance for Climate Protection $5 million in 2008.

Email 4919, Aug 2000, Phil Jones denies the divergence problem: "there is no way Singer can say the proxy data doesn't record the last 20 years of warming, as we don't have enough of the proxy series after about 1980. "

2012-02-01T10:13:00.001-06:00

Email 4919

This background is to illustrate how Singer et al distort things. The new reconstruction only runs to 1960 as did earlier ones based solely on tree-ring density. All the other long series (Mike's, Tom Crowley's and mine) include other proxy information (ice cores, corals, historical records, sediments and early instrumental records as well as tree-ring width data, which are only marginally affected). All these series end around 1980 or in the early 1980s. We don't have paleo data for much of the last 20 years. It would require tremendous effort and resources to update a lot of the paleo series because they were collected during the 1970s/early 1980s.
It is possible to add the instrumental series on from about 1980 (Mike sought of did this in his Nature article to say 1998 was the warmest of the millennium - and I did something similar in Rev. Geophys.) but there is no way Singer can say the proxy data doesn't record the last 20 years of warming, as we don't have enough of the proxy series after about 1980.
http://www.co2.science.org/edit/editor.html takes the argument further saying that as trees don't see all the warming since about 1960 the instrumental records recently must be in error (i.e. this group believes the trees and not the instrumental records). This piece by Idso and Idso seems to want to have the argument whichever suits them.

Email 3008, Oct 1999, Timothy Carter to Mike Hulme: Japanese model shows Arctic Ocean to get up to 26 degrees C. hotter

2012-02-01T10:03:00.001-06:00

Email 3008

He has produced some graphs of selected representative regions for the characterizations, and they seem OK except for some enormous changes at northern high latitudes with the Japanese model. With scaling these are up to 26 deg C (Arctic Ocean - we haven't looked at Arctic land yet)! Seasonal changes in the tropics are nearer a few deg C and in the Antarctic are less than 10 deg C.

Email 3178, Sept 2000, UEA's Trevor Davies: Met Office considering move to UEA's town (Norwich); "An objective of the Met Office is to "diversify into environmental services""

2012-02-01T09:59:00.001-06:00

Email 3178

At this point, I would like to explain that - from ENV's point of view -
there will be benefits from a closer Met Office contact, not only in the
obvious met/climate/ocean area, but across a potentially much larger part
of our spectrum. An objective of the Met Office is to "diversify into
environmental services".

Email 325, Oct 2003, Ammann to Michael Mann: "...the first half of the 20th century warmed up naturally"; this conflicts with current information on a DOE website

2012-02-01T09:30:00.001-06:00

Email 325

The more we are able to explain why the first half of the 20th century warmed up naturally,
the more confidence we get on the detection of the anthropogenic signal afterwards.
Caspar

ARM Education - From the US Department of Energy: Ask a Scientist Past Questions

The industrial revolution (at the turn of the century - 1890-1910) is often taken to be the beginning of humans influencing global warming.

Email 412, Mar. 2001, Tom Crowley to several Hockey Team members: "It therefore seems that the conveyor is indeed oscillating but the time scale of the larger scale CLIMATE shifts may be more regulated by solar, with volcanism adding some stochastic contribution"

2012-02-01T09:20:00.001-06:00

Email 412

ps fyi I counted the average spacing between the warm and cold oscillations in the iron oscillations illustrated by Broecker. Regardless of whether warm or cold are used, the mean spacing is indeed 1.5 k, although the s.d. is 0.4k HOWEVER, the mean spacing between the four main warm phases illustrated by Broecker on the same figure is, believe it or not, 2.15! much closer to the solar peak. This calls to mind the interesting (and clever) Wigley and Raper paper in Proc. Roy. Soc. (1990) indicating that, given the uncertainties in chronology, solar forcing plays a role i n Holocenn climate change. It therefore seems that the conveyor is indeed oscillating but the time scale of the larger scale CLIMATE shifts may be more regulated by solar, with volcanism adding some stochastic contribution. Something like this is worth adding to the proposed Eos piece.

2012-02-01T09:03:00.001-06:00

Helicopters pluck stranded Europeans from snowbound villages - Winnipeg Free Press

BELGRADE, Serbia - Rescue helicopters evacuated dozens of people from snow-blocked villages in Serbia and Bosnia and airlifted in emergency food and medicine as a severe cold spell kept eastern Europe in its icy grip.
The death toll from the cold rose to 79 on Wednesday and emergency crews worked overtime as temperatures sank to minus 32.5 C in some areas.
...In central Serbia, choppers pulled out 12 people, including nine who went to a funeral but then could not get back over icy, snow-choked roads. Two more people froze to death in the snow and two others are missing, bringing that nation's death toll to five.
"The situation is dramatic, the snow is up to five metres high in some areas, you can only see rooftops," said Dr. Milorad Dramacanin, who participated in the helicopter evacuations.

Taxpayer Cash for Ener1 Helped a Thrice-Failed Foreign EV Company | National Legal and Policy Center

What did DOE (and for that matter, Gov. Daniels and Indiana Economic Development Corporation) know when it awarded Ener1 millions of dollars in grants and incentives in 2009? Did they understand the company’s dependence on a thrice-failed (perhaps more) EV maker? Did DOE watchdogs know Ener1 would immediately invest in shaky Think after its $118 million award? Was Vice President Biden’s visit to Indiana an attempt to instill confidence in the failing battery maker and Norwegian EV company?
Is this what venture capitalism in the new “clean energy economy” is all about?

2012-02-01T08:53:00.001-06:00

William M. Briggs, Statistician » Bad Astronomer Does Bad Statistics: That Wall Street Journal Editorial

Mann’s understanding of statistics may be likened to an overly enthusiastic undergraduate who left the lecture early.

How to Form a Consensus « the Air Vent

The theme which started the URL of noconsensus, was that a consensus is an unnatural state for humanity. People disagree about everything under the Sun. Usually, disagreement is due to lack of information but we all know that many times it is about biased interpretation of information. The only questions in global warming are related to the magnitude of warming, what is causing that warming and whether it is a problem in any way at all. In my opinion, this is just my opinion, those questions aren’t even close to being answered by Climate Science™. Yet if the left wing environmental groups around the country cannot have consensus on the danger and the consequential need to enact anti-industry controls for that danger, their own self-destructive agenda cannot move forward.

Intellectually Insolvent U. Of Osnabrück Shuts Down Debate – Calls Skepticism “Provocative”

What do the intellectually challenged do when they’re out-matched in debate and fully exhausted of arguments?
You do what the University of Osnabrück has done: you prevent the opponent from entering the debating arena. You call it off and closed-mindedly insist you’re right.

Insiders: Energy Legislation Unlikely in 2012 - Olga Belogolova - NationalJournal.com

A whopping 81 percent of Insiders said it is unlikely Congress will send any energy legislation to Obama in 2012. Fifty-two percent said the prospects are “very unlikely,” while 29 percent said they are “somewhat unlikely.”

Philadelphia’s Warm January Was Seven Degrees Cooler Than 1790 | Real Science

Record warm January 2012 averaged 37F, compared to 44F in 1790. Hansen could adjust this, except for the fact that he now believes time began in 1960.

Email 1609, Jan 2007, Jonathan Gregory to Phil Jones on 'not particularly unusual' sea level rise: "Personally, I suspect that the network is too sparse, so that the variability is to some extent measurement noise. It is so large we have no physical explanation for it..."

2012-02-01T08:47:00.001-06:00

Email 1609

date: Fri, 5 Jan 2007 14:20:44 +0000 from: Jonathan Gregory
subject: New study: Current sea level rise 'not particularly unusual' to: Phil Jones...
Yes, we are going to have fun with sea level in Paris. Actually I don't think I've read that paper yet but we have a diagram already that shows the very large variability in decadal trends from tide-gauges. Personally, I suspect that the network is too sparse, so that the variability is to some extent measurement noise. It is so large we have no physical explanation for it...

Photos: PCC meetings

Scientists at an IPCC session in Paris, January 2007.

Email 176, Jan 2008, more settled science: Phil Jones seems alarmed at the "solar constant" being changed "from 1366.5 to 1361!!"

2012-02-01T07:53:00.001-06:00

Email 176

date: Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:18:51 -0700 from: Caspar Ammann subject: Re: pdf to: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
Phil,
will do. And regarding TSI, it looks like that 1361 or 1362 (+/-) are going to be the new consensus. All I hear is that this seems to be quite robust. Fodder for the critics: all these modelers, they always put in too much energy - no wonder it was warming - and now they want to reduce the natural component? The SORCE meeting is going to be on that satellite stuff but also about climate connections : Sun-Earth. Tom Crowley is going to be there, Gavin Schmidt, David Rind, and a few others; of course Judith.
Thanks for Bo Vinther's manuscript!
Caspar
On Jan 30, 2008, at 3:12 PM, [1]P.Jones@uea.ac.uk wrote:
Caspar,
OK. Keep me informed. Also I'd like to know more the conclusions of the meeting you're going to on the solar constant. Just that it can change from 1366.5 to 1361!!
Cheers, Phil

Email 235, Oct 2007: Phil Jones calls a warmer climate "better"; warm weather leads to good harvests, cold weather leads to famine; "people are not affected much by climate or climate change. What effects them is the Weather!"

2012-02-01T07:47:00.001-06:00

Email 235

The clearest impacts of climate in the historical past that I'm aware of took place when the climate of western Europe warmed from the early 1700s to about 1739. There were a number of good harvests in Britain and Ireland and our population increased dramatically as more children survived. You should now see why your premise about the Little Ice Age is completely wrong. The 1730s temperatures in the UK are exceeded by two decades - the 1990s and the 2000s. In the late 1730s the population of Ireland was about twice what it is now! In 1740 the coldest year in the Central England Temperature record occurred. This led of famine across western Europe, especially Ireland. As many people left Ireland then as did from the potato famine a century later. Probably as many died, but it is a forgotten famine because of the later on in 1845/6. The latter was due to the potato blight (and a one crop agricultural system), but the one in 1740 was purely to the weather. I'm attaching an article about this - the book to look at is by Dickson - in the references. There is something in the paper about the effects of the very cold year in different regions of Europe. The important thing in all this is the exceptional cold of the year occurred after exceptional warmth of an entire decade, so the effects were likely much worse as the population had got used to a better [warmer] climate. The conclusion of the paper is that the event was natural (with no known cause) so it could occur again! The follow on influence of this is that people are not affected much by climate or climate change. What effects them is the Weather!

2012-02-01T07:31:00.001-06:00

Rajan's Take: Climate Change: Oxfam's big dilemma: To open or close their swimming pool in their Nairobi guest house???

So what difference will one measly swimming pool with an attendant make to changing popular public perceptions of the extravagant lifestyles of these INGO staffers? In fact, in India, fuel guzzling SUVs are even considered a clear Oxfam legacy to the NGO sector. All you need to find a NGO office is to successfully spot the SUVs parked as a clutter
outside it.

Email 237, Mar 2006, Briffa and Osborn: We don't really know how warm it was 1000 years ago, and this allegedly isn't a big deal

2012-02-01T07:08:00.001-06:00

Email 237

It was my call not to "overplay" the importance of the divergence issue, knowing the subtlety of the issues, in the fortcoming IPCC Chapter 6 draft. We did always intend to have a brief section about the assumption of uniformitarianism in proxy interpretation , including mention of the possible direct carbon dioxide fertilization effect on tree growth (equally controversial), but it is likely to conclude that here as well , there is no strong evidence of any major real-world effect. This and the divergence problem are not well defined, sufficiently studied, or quantified to be worthy of too much concern at this point. The uncertainty estimates we calibrate when interpreting many tree-ring series will likely incorporate the possibility of some bias in our estimates of past warmth, but these are wide anyway. This does not mean that temperatures were necessarily at the upper extreme of the reconstruction uncertainty range 1000 years ago, any more than they may have been at the bottom. The real problem is a lack of widespread (and non-terrestrial) proxies for defining the level of early warmth, and the vital need to up-date and study the responses of proxies in very recent times.

Email 239, Oct 2003, John Holdren defends Michael Mann's alarmism by stressing Mann's careful weasel wording

2012-02-01T07:01:00.001-06:00

Email 239

Regarding extravagant claims, you continue to argue that Mann et al. have been guilty of this, but the formulation of theirs that you offer as evidence is not evidence of this at all. You quote them from the NYT in 1998, referring to a study Mann and co-authors published in that year, as saying
"Our conclusion was that the warming of the past few decades appears to be closely tied to emission of greenhouse gases by humans and not any of the natural factors."
and you ask "Does that seem to be careful in the nature of a claim?" My answer is: Yes, absolutely, their formulation is careful and appropriate. Please note that they did NOT say "Global warming is closely tied to emission of greenhouse gases by humans and not any of the natural factors." They said that THEIR CONCLUSION (from a particular, specified study, published in NATURE) was that the warming of THE PAST FEW DECADES (that is, a particular, specified part of the historical record) APPEARS (from the evidence adduced in the specified study) to be closely tied... This is a carefully specified, multiply bounded statement, which accurately reflects what they looked at and what they found. And it is appropriately contingent --"APPEARS to be closely tied" -- allowing for the possibility that further analysis or new data could later lead to a different perspective on what appears to be true. With respect, it does not require a PhD in science to notice the appropriate boundedness and contingency in the Mann et al. formulation. It only requires an open mind, a careful reading, and a degree of understanding of the character of scientific claims and the wording appropriate to convey them that is accessible to any thoughtful citizen. That is why I'm an optimist.

Email 295, Feb 2008, Phil Jones: "...the long-term change from the 19th century to the present is only about 1 deg C. This 1 deg C is small compared to weather variability"

2012-02-01T06:47:00.001-06:00

Email 295

Early expedition records and explorer's logs are difficult to compare with modern measurements, as they are often short in duration. When making comparisons you have to remember they are essentially long runs of weather and the long-term change from the 19th century to the present is only about 1 deg C. This 1 deg C is small compared to weather variability. Attached is another paper on early US weather obs. There are a lot of issues to consider with early observations. I also tried years ago to look at early Antarctic weather obs from the explorer days. The day-to-day variability of Antarctic temperatures almost defeats anything being said, except perhaps in the Peninsula region.

2012-02-01T06:10:00.001-06:00

The Reference Frame: WSJ publishes a collective letter disagreeing with Lindzen et al.

But the impartial experts outside these morally contaminated structures don't have these motivations and biases. In combination with the fact that the climate fearmongering turns out to be scientifically incorrect, that's why most of the people in the broader scientific and technological community (but even most of the WSJ readers) simply don't buy into this propaganda. They have figured out that it is scientific rubbish, a counterpart of astrology. Ms Hayhoe and her fellow alarmist cultists should finally take notice.

Gina Rinehart appoints Prof Ian Plimer to two boards | Latest Business & Australian Stock market News | Perth Now

GINA Rinehart has appointed controversial climate change sceptic Ian Plimer to the board of several key family companies.

European cold snap death toll rises to 71

The death toll from a severe cold spell in Eastern Europe rose
to 71 Wednesday, most of them homeless people.
Temperatures dropped to minus 30 C (minus 22 F) in some regions,
causing power outages and traffic chaos and prompting authorities
to close schools and nurseries.

Email 4423, April 2009, warmists struggle to explain what happened with the weather in 1997-1998: "if not instrumental, then maybe an abrupt climate change bogie man came out of the closet to cause 0.5 offset after that time - any ideas? "

2012-02-01T06:06:00.001-06:00

Email 4423

big divergence is during 97-98 ENSO - if it is some instrumental problem from the ocean, perhaps clues from this time interval could unravel why
if not instrumental, then maybe an abrupt climate change bogie man came out of the closet to cause 0.5 offset after that time - any ideas? might be too early to look that way unless ocean instrumental uncertainties are put to rest.... [Tom Crowley]

Email 4418, Feb 1997, maybe CO2 doesn't cause malaria: "I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The Netherlands) between 1820-1930 which do show evidence of this 20 year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920. "

2012-02-01T04:59:00.001-06:00

Email 4418

Did you hear that our joint proposal (with Pim Martens) is one of 1,500 now assessed by the EU? Does not look hopeful. However, maybe we can do some PR and raise the profile of the proposal a bit. What I have in mind is a letter to the Lancet relating weather and historic malaria fluctuations in Europe. In an earlier letter (1994, I may have given you a copy), the geographical association was made between areas affected by ENSO and periodic epidemics. This letter ends with an open explanation for the 20-year periods in malaria in Europe (Italy and the Netherlands). Last weeks publication in Science on a possible North Atlantic equivalent of the Nino with a period of 20 years may be of significance. I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The Netherlands) between 1820-1930 which do show evidence of this 20 year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920. I have no idea whether there are any climate data (sea temperature or otherwise) to justify a hypothesis that both phenomena. Do you have any suggestions?

Email 4417, Feb 2005, Warmist Peter Thorne to Phil Jones: "I don't think we should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of the science)"

2012-02-01T04:56:00.001-06:00

Email 4417

I don't think we should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of the science)...I do not believe that Fu et al. weightings is some panacea nor that the "cancellation" works on all space and timescales (the statement needs to be *proved* it cannot be accepted as an article of faith - that is not the way science works). I'd be amazed if it did. The reservations raised in the peer reviewed literature need to be better articulated here for the document to be fair and balanced...My feeling is that we are missing a significant opportunity here to outline the considerable uncertainty in evolution aloft in favour of deciding one subset of approaches is right and presenting this as gospel truth. I am very uncomfortable with this....So to state boldly that trends agree and therefore all is well is again our living in a fools paradise. It is true, but it just shows that trend metrics are very dangerous beasties and should be handled with care...
Common question 3.2. You'll be unsurprised to hear that I think this paints too rosy a picture of our understanding the vertical structure of temperature changes. Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest.

Email 4413, Oct 2009: Environmental plant physiologist writes to Briffa: "As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole scientific basis of dendroclimatolog"

2012-02-01T04:47:00.001-06:00

Email 4413

As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate
starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009).
As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole
scientific basis of dendroclimatology. In particular;
1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed
2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies
3) The concept of "teleconnection" by which certain trees respond to the
"Global Temperature Field", rather than local climate
4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature
in a linear manner.
Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use
inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find
difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers.
As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do
not agree with the accepted science.

Email 4405, Mar. 2001: Phil Jones calls changes in ice caps/glaciers "our best piece of evidence"

2012-02-01T04:43:00.001-06:00

Email 4405

Thompson estimates that some of these ice caps/glaciers (which have ice layers in the Middle Ages) will disappear in the next 20 years. This is our best piece of evidence. I know we don't use them in many of the compilations, but if these areas had layers in the Middle Ages and are disappearing arguments that globally it was warmer in the MWP are shot to pieces.