Wednesday, April 27, 2011

"soil temperatures remain too cold for germination in many northern areas"

High risk of severe weather again today «
As noted yesterday, the rains and flooding has delayed the planting season for corn even as drought has done serious damage to the winter wheat. With some drying, expect planting to pick up in the next week or so but soil temperatures remain too cold for germination in many northern areas. This is a soil temperature map for this morning.

Corn planting typically begins in the Corn Belt when average air temperature is near 50 F and soil temperature at planting depth is around 55 F. However, optimum seed germination and emergence occur when air and soil temperatures reach 68-77 F, which is 15-25 degrees above the average planting date norms.

You can see those soil temperatures are still confined to areas where they are having the issues with too much rain. They will get the crop into the ground but there are typically yield losses for every day after May 1 planting occurs. The general rule is if farmers get 50% of the corn in the ground by May 1, you almost certainly reach trendline yields. As of April 24, 9% of the corn crop had been planted compared to 46% last year. Not much improvement is expected given the rainfall and soil temperatures by the next tally this Sunday on May 1.

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