Wednesday, August 10, 2011

William M. Briggs, Statistician » Are Scientific Papers Becoming Worse?
The more journals there are, the more papers, and the more papers, the more bad ones. Not just sloppy or ridiculous papers, which regular readers of this site know are rampant, but fraudulent ones, too. Corners cut, numbers fudged, bandwagons jumped on and rode into the dust. This isn’t just in medicine, where there are many multitudes—as in thousands—of papers appearing monthly, but also in research into “climate effects.” It’s not unusual to see, in the same journal even, one paper which “proves”, “Fruit Bats Numbers To Decline When Climate Change Hits” and another which “shows”, “Fruit Bats To Increase Without Number, New Plague, When Climate Change Hits.”

And let’s not forget money—money is what’s going on, and lots of it. Research dollars from governments have flooded the system, making it easier for professors to set up little fiefdoms. The more money a professor brings in, the higher the rewards from the university bureaucracy (corollary: the more money, the larger this bureaucracy grows). Now, the only way to bring in the bucks is by publishing in sexy fields. Better publish quickly and in bulk, too, because you have a dozen guys breathing over your shoulder, itching to increase their “impact” scores ahead of yours.

The temptations here are enormous and, increasingly, they are not resisted.
Oakeshott answers carbon tax detractors at forum - Local News - News - General - Wauchope Gazette
Mr Oakeshott said 'real global agreement' and a 'global handshake is coming' on carbon pricing.
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds some Antarctic temperature measurements show false warming of up to 10°C (18°F)
A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology finds that temperature measurements on the Antarctic plateau "are shown to be significantly warm biased by solar radiation," resulting in temperature measurements up to 10°C (18°F) warmer than actual temperatures. The authors find that the summer Sun heats the housing for the electronic thermometers causing the warming bias during summer, which is also exacerbated by low wind conditions. Surface temperature measurements are particularly important at the poles, because satellite measurements of temperature do not include data poleward of 82.5° North and 70° South and the only available measurements in these areas is from surface temperature stations. Considering the tiny change in global temperature over the past 161 years of only 0.7°C, this newly-discovered large warming bias of up to 10°C calls into question data from areas critical to the AGW debate.

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