Coyote Blog » Blog Archive » "Abnormal" Events -- Droughts and Perfect Games

Most folks, and I would include myself in this, have terrible intuitions about probabilities and in particular the frequency and patterns of occurance in the tail ends of the normal distribution, what we might call "abnormal" events. This strikes me as a particularly relevant topic as the severity of the current drought and high temperatures in the US is being used as absolute evidence of catastrophic global warming.

The New Nostradamus of the North: The conversion of a former Canadian "skeptic"

The "research" that led Scott Sutherland to believe that climate change is "solely due to human activity" seems to be that he has read - and blindly believes in - Muller´s and Hansen´s widely debunked studies. Not a very convincing conversion, but maybe it will make it easier for Sutherland to join the warmist gravy train on the way to a better paid job.

The 1930s Were Much Hotter In The Midwest | Real Science

The graph above shows the USHCN average maximum temperature and eleven year running mean for Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

July 2012 was more than four degrees cooler than 1936, and was also cooler than 1901, 1934 and 1954. The period since 1990 has been the coolest of the last century.

When people like Katherine Hayhoe say that the heat is unusual, it is a further indication that they have no idea what they are talking about.

94% Of Midwest Record July Maximum Temperatures Were Set Below 350 ppm CO2. | Real Science

Seventy percent of all midwest July daily record maximums were set prior to 1940. More than 20% of them were set in 1936.