Is It Time For The Nuclear Option In The AI Race?
13 hours ago
CO2 is NOT the climate control knob
If the observations above are correct, we could expect 20-30 years of cooling (or cancelled warming).
California agriculture has ridden a wave of success on that PDO warm phase since 1977, experiencing unprecedented growth. Now that PDO is shifting to a cooler phase, areas that supported crops during the warm phase may no longer be able to do so.
If indeed the PDO shift is the real deal, we might expect more La Ninas and fewer weaker El Ninos over the next few decades with a net tendency for cooling. Add to that a quieter sun and eventually a cooling Atlantic, and you have a recipe for global cooling.
Note: AMO in the [linked] graph stands for Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. PDO stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation. USHCN stands for United States Historical Climatology Network, i.e. ground station temperature record.Another related post by Anthony Watts is here.
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The simplistic GCMs that focus on CO2 to the exclusion of the truly important climate forcings, have the effect of dumbing down the public in science, and diverting trillions of dollars to non-productive (anti-productive) enterprises. Humans could never reach the next level that way.
While this isn’t a “smoking gun” it is as close as anything I’ve seen. Time will give us the qualified answer as we have expectations of a lower Solar Cycle 24 and changes in the Pacific now happening.
The event of interest was the regime shift from cold to warm phase of the PDO in 1976 and Alaska’s temperature record makes this obvious:
If that change to the cold PDO is this time a lasting one (and given past intervals of warm and cold which typically averaged 20 to 30 years, it certainly appears very possible), we may be entering a new era with more La Ninas and a very different climate, especially if the sun goes into its usual 200 year deep sleep as more and more solar scientists are beginning to believe will happen.