An excerpt:
The Government of Nunavut is conducting a study of the Davis Strait bear population. Results of the study won't be released until 2008, but Taylor says it appears there are some 3,000 bears in an area - a big jump from the current estimate of about 850 bears.
"That's not theory. That's not based on a model. That's observation of reality," he says.
And despite the fact that some of the most dramatic changes to sea ice is seen in seasonal ice areas such as Davis Strait, seven or eight of the bears measured and weighed for the study this summer are among the biggest on record, Taylor said.
Yet anecdotes abound of skinny polar bears wandering from their traditional hunting grounds in search of food - such as an email circulated recently with a photo of a gaunt bear with skin hanging off its bones, spotted 160 kilometres inland from Ungava Bay.
Taylor bristles at that photo's mention. He says the bear is clearly an elderly male in its late 20s, rather than a young female, as it has been otherwise identified.
"It probably wandered out there to end its life in peace," he said. "That's nature. It's not climate change."
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Taylor admits he does not see eye to eye with many other polar bear biologist, many of whom have expressed concern over whether polar bears will survive in a warmer climate.
"Unlike all the others, I live in the north. My friends and neighbours are Nunavummiut," he said. "I'm talking to people about polar bears all the time."
Is it just me, or does this Taylor fellow sound a bit like the IBWO true believers who brag about "spending 30 years in the woods"?
Of course he may be right. Less ice may be the greatest thing that ever happened to polar bears.
Personally, I think it's worth betting on. I predict in ten years the wild polar bear population will be lower than it is now, not higher. Anyone think otherwise?
Serious takers only, please.
Polar bears need ice. Less ice, less polar bears. End of story.
Ilya
Polar bears need ice. Less ice, less polar bears. End of story.
Hi Ilya,
But if you do a little research, you should see that the polar bear population is much higher now that it was 40 years ago. (Supporting link here).
According to your theory, we must have had "less ice" 40 years ago. Is that true?
I think hunting pressure is also part of this story.
Tom
I predict in ten years the wild polar bear population will be lower than it is now, not higher. Anyone think otherwise?
I'd never bet with an anonymous person on the internet.
Right now, if I was forced to predict the wild polar bear population in 2017, I'd guess "about the same as today".
It appears that the total population has been pretty stable over the last decade or two. I'm not convinced that the available polar bear habitat will be significantly less optimal in 2017 than it is now; also, it looks like hunting pressure will be lower in the next decade than it was in the past decade.
"it looks like hunting pressure will be lower in the next decade than it was in the past decade."
Yes, polar bear hunting is regulated by treaty and appears to have been regulated since the early 70s when the bears were classified as endangered.
Without those regulations -- enacted by politicians responding to scientific studies -- the bears would surely be in more dire straits than they are presently.
Reducing hunting pressure is surely a way to help maintain the polar bear population. I suppose less ice makes hunting the bears more difficult, just as less ice makes it more difficult for bears to hunt (allegedly).
"Taylor bristles at that photo's mention. He says the bear is clearly an elderly male in its late 20s, rather than a young female, as it has been otherwise identified. It probably wandered out there to end its life in peace," he said. "That's nature. It's not climate change."
Good science! Sounds like our IBWO authorities!
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