I guess the science wasn't settled: Major change in climate thinking

Many of Australia's droughts appear to arise from changes in Indian Ocean temperatures.

This influence appears to be even more important than the better-known El Nino/La Nina air pressure effect in the Pacific.

A team of Australian scientists has detailed for the first time how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effect dictates whether or not, moisture-bearing winds are carried across the southern half of Australia.

The IOD is a variable and irregular cycle of warming and cooling of ocean water.

The landmark new study is believed to explain the current record-breaking drought in south-eastern Australia.

A cooling story involving ozone, the sun and the sea « Climate Change

Take home messages:

1. There is a natural cycle that drives the concentration of ozone in the stratosphere. This is shown by the cooling at 70hPa as the tropical sea warms.
2. The influence of the sun is seen in the micro-structure and the macro-structure of temperature at all levels of the atmosphere above the 200hPa pressure level between 20°N and 20°S.
3. The atmosphere does not store warmth. Above 700hPa it has returned to base temperature after each warming episode between 1948 and 2008. It is the sea that stores warmth.
4. The rate of warming at 850hPa (1 km) is a good measure of the increased energy that the Earth receives from the sun over the course of time. It is here that the temperature has increased most since 1978. Temperature at 850hPa will only return to base when the tropical oceans themselves return to base temperature. This return seems to be in process but rest assured that warming and cooling events will continue to provide a secure topic for everyday conversation.
5. Cooling of the stratosphere is not due to greenhouse gas warming of the troposphere. There is no temperature change in the lower troposphere except very close to the warmer ocean. Cooling of the stratosphere is due to ozone loss associated with surface warming.
6. Ozone loss in the stratosphere is a natural consequence of sea surface warming.

The ‘global financial crisis’, the ‘climate change crisis’ and David Archibald’s new book Solar Cycle 24. « Climate Change

I have been at some pains in this blog to point out that climate change is a natural and inevitable consequence of the relationship between the Earth and the Sun. Unfortunately; the message is not simple and will not be easily grasped. People seem to like the simplicity of the notion that a heavy molecule absorbs energy and reflects it back upon the Earth. They forget that the sea stores energy and is responsible for the equability of coastal climates and the globe as a whole. Few people live in desert environments where radiation is the dominant method by which the Earth loses energy and yet overnight temperature plummets. Where is the greenhouse effect in Marble Bar?

Carbon dioxide is a trace gas (0.038%), that from the point of plant nutrition is maintained in a position of chronic under-supply by the avid demand of plants and its ready solubility in water. Plants use it to build carbohydrate, the source of energy for all living things. If we could triple the quantity of carbon dioxide in the air, plant growth would respond in a way that is demonstrated in controlled atmosphere greenhouses. Under a regime of supplemented carbon dioxide, plants use less water and grow faster. If we could raise the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere to 0.2% we could green the deserts with no change in air temperature and no change in water supply. Just keep breathing and driving your car. You are doing the right thing.

The Southern Oscillation and the Sun (2) « Climate Change

The United Nations I.P.C.C. maintains that the solar influence on climate over recent decades has been responsible for cooling. This is incorrect. The sun drove almost continuous warming in the tropics until 1998 but particularly between 1978 and 1998 and is responsible for the gradual cooling since that time.There is evidence that a warming event will manifest before the end of March 2009.

The Southern Oscillation and the Sun (1) « Climate Change

As I noted in an earlier post, there is no evidence that the presence of carbon dioxide in the troposphere changes its basic nature as a ‘turning sphere’, efficiently moving heat from the surface and transporting it upwards to a point where heat can be freely radiated to space.

How ENSO rules the oceans « Climate Change

Natural oceanic variation is the cause of possibly all modern warming. There are no unprecedented rises in any single ocean. Underneath ENSO noise, the oceans are not exhibiting warming that would be associated with a constant increase in forcing over a given time-span. Instead, the oceans are exhibiting step-changes and other long-term responses to El Ninos. This is a simple concept, demonstrated fairly easily. It is incredible that something so basic is missed by the climate community.