Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Jennifer Marohasy » The Need for a New Theory of Climate (Part 1)
Popper would not have been impressed with arguments that climate change is the greatest moral issue of our time, or that believing in climate change and trying to correct it are simply a better way to live. He is also unlikely to be swayed by the thick reports from the ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ even if they are an accurate summation of thousands of peer-reviewed technical papers. Popper would instead want the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) reduced to logically testable statements and attempts then made to falsify the statements.
Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary - POLITICO.com Print View
It's going to be hard winning the Republican presidential nomination if you’re not a climate skeptic.
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Dan Weiss, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, said the eventual Republican nominee may end up painting themselves into a corner if they join the pack to attack climate science in the primaries.

"This is something aimed at the base, but as public opinion stands today, it would actually be hurtful in a general election," Weiss said.

In particular, questioning climate change might not square with key voting blocs in parts of the country where weather patterns underscore the scientific warnings. "It could be an issue that hurts Republicans in the Southwest if the drought persists," Weiss said. "It also could hurt the Republicans in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states if there continues to be extreme weather events. The same thing in Florida. A big hurricane season could hurt them."
Strongest Storm In Minnesota History? | StarTribune.com
Record-Setting Tuesday? Computer models are predicting today's storm undergoing "bombo-genesis" near Duluth today, with a central pressure as low as 28.3" by evening. If the computers verify we may very well set a record for Minnesota's strongest storm (measured via barometric pressure) on record.
...The reason? A strong north-south contrast in temperature, what meteorologists refer to as "baroclinicity" is setting the stage for an especially strong area of low pressure to develop near Duluth. The greater the contrast in temperature, the stronger the winds have to blow to keep the atmosphere in a state of equilibrium. That why winds in the tropics are usually light - very little in the way of temperature extremes within 2,000 miles of the equator (save for the occasional hurricane, of course).
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No Waiting On Warming. Temperatures worldwide have warmed close to 2 F. in just the last century. Doesn't sound like much, but the observed warming over much of Alaska, northern Canada and Siberia is closer to 5-8 F. Only a 1 degree F. warming may result in a 73% to FIVE-FOLD increase in brushfires, according to researcher Chris Field, a Stanford scientist. A recent interview with Field can be found here.
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Warmer Arctic Spells Colder Winters. Say what? Talk about a (confusing) paradox. This is why climate change is one of the most complex issues today - there are so many moving parts and bafflying contradictions. According to scientists, the Arctic region is "entering a new state", less ice changing water and wind patterns with 1,000 miles of the North Pole. That's having a domino effect across the rest of North America, changing the position and amplitude of the main, high-speed wind currents, the jet stream winds that snake around the globe. "Rising heat from a warmer Arctic may increasingly disrupt the circumpolar winds that normally confine cold air within Arctic realms, allowing blasts of cold to hurtle south, similar to what happened when parts of the United States were buried under thick snow this past winter." The complete article from Discovery News and the 2010 Arctic Report Card can be found here. More on this seeming contradiction (warmer Arctic = more severe winters for USA) from the Capital Weather Gang here.
If warming causes storms, why such a strong storm in October, when it's cold in Minnesota?  If warming causes colder winters here, why was warming blamed when we had warmer winters here?

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