Can game theory save the UN climate [hoax] talks? | John Vidal | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Jobst Heitzig, lead author of a study to be published shortly in the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that what is basically going wrong in the talks is that "free-riding" countries are undermining other countries that want to act on behalf of humanity.

These are the nations – take a bow America, Russia, Canada – that continue to emit CO2 without restraint but are happy to enjoy a more stable climate paid for by other countries who are spending billions to cut carbon emissions.

The academics' theory purports to prove, mathematically, that the talks would move forward faster and more successfully if countries agreed to penalise each other if they missed emissions reduction targets.
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Like all theories, though, the game theory analysis has been based on assumptions, and here's why it seems unrealistic. Firstly, it assumes that all countries will act in a fundamentally rational way. Secondly, it assumes that the players all share the basic aim of climate protection.

And, as we all know, any country that does not take climate change seriously cannot, by definition, be acting rationally. And secondly, the selfish behaviour of countries we've seen in previous years of climate talks shows that the basic aim of cutting emissions stabilising the climate has been forgotten in the politics of the UN process.

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