Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Dunning–Kruger poster child Michael Mann: "...'ignorance' (rather than say, mendacity) is perhaps a charitable interpretation of the behavior of Watts and his ilk"

Twitter / MichaelEMann: @ga2re2t 'amazing how...Wa

'amazing how...WattsUpWithThat critcizing you for exposing ignorance of Sowell's question ' DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT!

Twitter / MichaelEMann: @ga2re2t Indeed. Though 'i

Indeed. Though 'ignorance' (rather than say, mendacity) is perhaps a charitable interpretation of the behavior of Watts and his ilk

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes

Tom Nelson: If you still believe that the ClimateGate emails don't cast a lot of doubt on Michael Mann and his work, check these out

  • Priceless ClimateGate email 682: Tom Wigley tells Michael Mann that his son did a tree ring science fair project (using trees behind NCAR) that invalidated the centerpiece of Mann's work
  • ClimateGate scientists on Michael Mann and his work: "probable flaws" and "clearly deficient", and "crap" and "way too defensive", oh my!
  • 2002 Briffa email mentions Mann's "diminishing support" and the "questionable nature of much of Mann's verbiage"; says "Mike could be a lot more open about the real uncertainty of his early temperature estimates"
  • ...
  • In case you missed it: Hockey stick co-author: "it may be that Mann et al simply don't have the long-term trend right"; "I hedge my bets on whether there were any periods in Medieval times that might have been "warm", to the irritation of my co-authors!"
  • ...
  • Phil Jones to Mann: "both of us think that you're on very dodgy ground...What the real world has done over the last 6000 years and what it ought to have done given our understandding of Milankovic forcing are two very different things"
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