Monday, October 15, 2012

New Phil Jones quote: "We don’t know what natural variability is doing"

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it | Mail Online
Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models were imperfect: ‘We don’t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural variability is doing.’

Yet he insisted that 15 or 16 years is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been expected, he said.

Yet in 2009, when the plateau was already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, he told a colleague in one of the Climategate emails: ‘Bottom line: the “no upward trend” has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’

But although that point has now been passed, he said that he hadn’t changed his mind about the models’ gloomy predictions: ‘I still think that the current decade which began in 2010 will be warmer by about 0.17 degrees than the previous one, which was warmer than the Nineties.’

Only if that did not happen would he seriously begin to wonder whether something more profound might be happening. In other words, though five years ago he seemed to be saying that 15 years without warming would make him ‘worried’, that period has now become 20 years.  [Via Climate Change Dispatch]


Catweazle said...

Anyone remember "I am the President of the Royal Society, and I am telling you the debate on climate change is over."?

Lord May, President of the Royal Society.

How are the mighty fallen.

Anonymous said...

Ah but Cat', the RS has been bought and paid for - since a long time ago, climate science and political advocacy also go hand in hand with the RS - Royal? 'Rancid' Society more like.

Unknown said...

Science demands skepticism and critical thinking. Climate model theories must stand up to coherent skepticism. And if the theories hold up, and humans ARE the major factor causing global warming, then the theories become stronger. If they don't stand up to criticism, then they become weaker and go away. That is how science SHOULD always work.

When so-called scientists ridicule skeptics for opposing their theory, they have deviated from the path of the scientific method. They have renounced science by their actions. They are false scientists. And their conclusions and theories are cast in grave doubt. Good scientists welcome the chance to defend their theory against any valid argument.

Science has NO EMOTION. Science stands above human pettiness and greed and politics.

Where is the integrity in the debate about the causes of global warming? Where are the debates? Where are the magazine and journal articles debating many sides of the global warming arguments? When the debate is squelched and ignored, then there is NO SCIENCE.

There are scientists who challenge Einstein's theories of relativity constantly. Do other scientists put them down and call them names for not drinking the Einstein Kool-Aid and jumping on the bandwagon of Relativity? No. Neither should the global-warming scientists and neither should their political backers, if they want to maintain credibility.