Oops: Models fail as Red River cold extended into late April; Fargo spent $3 million on a flood that never came; the 2013 crest was the latest since 1887

Late, lower-than-feared Red River crest at Fargo puts spotlight on forecasting | StarTribune.com

Fargo spent $3 million on flood that never came.
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When the Red River crested at Fargo-Moorhead on Tuesday, it was 7 feet below the peak that experts had considered very possible only two weeks before.
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Conditions this spring were “climatologically unprecedented,” said National Weather Service hydrologist Greg Gust, who is based in Grand Forks, N.D., along the Red. In most years, when the snow begins to melt and rivers break free of ice, the landscape along the Red remains frozen and impermeable, allowing meltwater to run quickly across fields and ultimately, into the Red.

But this year, because the cold extended into late April, the ground thawed quickly under high sun and soaked up the snowmelt, limiting runoff. Dry weather also helped. The delayed cold wasn’t something hydrologists could put into their models, Gust said, because it wasn’t part of the climate record; the 2013 crest was the latest since 1887.

“To try to anticipate something that’s never occurred before has become an interesting and odd challenge,” Gust said.
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It left Fargo with more than a million sandbags it won’t be using