Friday, May 13, 2016

RICO20 emails

Released May 13, 2016.  Press release

Five PDFs, 190 pages

Pages 1- 59
Pages 60-102
Pages 103-133
Pages 134-178
Pages 179-190

Related post on Watts Up With That

Click on this Twitter thread for some excepts. I plan to post more excerpts on Twitter using the #RICO20 hashtag.

1 comment:

Gary H said...

In a July 27, 2015 email from J Shukla to Ed Mailbach

[..] Some of my fellow climate scientists had suggested earlier that as climate scientists, we should say something about the overwhelming scientific evidence of human caused climate change.

Wonder what he is referring to?

My thanks to Roger Pielke, Jr. for the following clarity on the subject matter at hand.

IPCC AR5 – Floods

“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.”

IPCC SREX co-authors – Floods

“a direct statistical link between anthropogenic climate change and trends in the magnitude/frequency of floods has not been established... There is such a furore of concern about the linkage between greenhouse forcing and floods that it causes
society to lose focus on the things we already know for certain about floods and how to mitigate and adapt to them. Blaming climate change for flood losses makes
flood losses a global issue that appears to be out of the control of regional or national institutions. The scientific community needs to emphasize that the
problem of flood losses is mostly about what we do on or to the landscape and that will be the case for decades to come.”

Zbigniew et al. 2014 Hydrological Sciences Journal
IPCC AR5 – Tropical cyclones

“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century .”

“No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North
Atlantic basin.”
IPCC SREX – Tornadoes

“There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such
as tornadoes and hail.”
IPCC AR5 – Drought

“There is not enough evidence to support medium or high confidence of attribution of increasing trends to anthropogenic forcings as a result of observational uncertainties and variable results from region to region. .

. we conclude consistent with SREX that there is low confidence in detection and attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century.”

“Recent long-term droughts in western North America cannot definitively be shown to lie outside the very large envelope of natural precipitation variability in this region”

"Overwhelming" is a very big word. Does Shukla not understand this?