Short summary of my views on the IBWO controversy

I've blogged quite a bit about the Ivory-bill controversy, and I thought now would be a good time to write a very short summary of my views.

1. I am absolutely not certain that the IBWO is extinct. For everyone interested in the controversy, I think an excellent question is "What is your estimated probability that the IBWO lives?" My current answer is "Greater than 0, but well short of 50%".

2. In my mind, the current evidence for the IBWO's survival falls significantly short of proof. I think the video is inconclusive; I think that none of the individual sightings would be likely to be accepted by an objective state record committee; and I agree with Cornell that we can't be certain of the origin of the audio evidence.