Friday, September 23, 2005

Groupthink?

To me, given the weak evidence, it's mind-boggling that Cornell could publicly claim conclusive proof that the Ivory-bill had been re-discovered. I don't see just a niggling concern here or there among the evidence--I see red flags, and lots of them. How could this happen?!

If Cornell is wrong, groupthink may partly explain this situation.

Here's a snippet from the groupthink link above:
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Janis cited a number of antecedent conditions that would be likely to encourage groupthink. These include:

  • Insulation of the group
  • High group cohesiveness
  • Directive leadership
  • Lack of norms requiring methodical procedures
  • Homogeneity of members' social background and ideology
  • High stress from external threats with low hope of a better solution than the one offered by the leader(s)

Janis listed eight symptoms that he said were indicative of groupthink:

  1. Illusion of invulnerability
  2. Unquestioned belief in the inherent morality of the group
  3. Collective rationalization of group's decisions
  4. Shared stereotypes of outgroup, particularly opponents
  5. Self-censorship; members withhold criticisms
  6. Illusion of unanimity (see false consensus effect)
  7. Direct pressure on dissenters to conform
  8. Self-appointed "mindguards" protect the group from negative information

Finally, the seven symptoms of decision affected by groupthink are:

  1. Incomplete survey of alternatives
  2. Incomplete survey of objectives
  3. Failure to examine risks of preferred choice
  4. Failure to re-appraise initially rejected alternatives
  5. Poor information search
  6. Selective bias in processing information at hand (see also confirmation bias)
  7. Failure to work out contingency plans
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I think a number of the points above may apply to the Cornell search team.