Today's links

1. An excerpt from this Public Occurrences blog post, entitled "The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker: Lord God, It Is Extinct":

We and millions around the world were captivated by the apparent re-discovery of this spectacular bird in the Cache River area of Arkansas last year*. This month's issue of "National Geographic" has a follow-up article. Alas, it says here that the Lord God bird is gone forever, that the intensive efforts to provide conclusive proof of the bird's existence in the last year having come to naught, that the most reasonable conclusion is that the 2005 sighting was in error, a product of hope and emotion, rather than fact. God damn it and god bless the Ivory-bill, gone now forever. This is Public Occurrences.

That represents a massive shift towards skepticism at that blog, where this glowing piece appeared in August 2005.

2. Martjan Lammertink's wife Utami Setiorini now has a blog. An IBWO-related post is here.

A meteorologist weighs in

An meteorologist acquaintance emailed me the following in late 2005. I believe this is an honest perspective on the global warming debate (I would be sincerely shocked to discover that this person has a hidden "axe to grind"):

...The whole global warming thing is [so] biased and politically motivated that true scientific analysis takes a back seat. Too much research funding at stake let alone PHD's life long careers.
...
I am just applying my experiences with the "science" of global warming to what I feared would happen with the "discovery" of the ivory bill. This is big business for the birder world. The global warming "scientists" have made big careers and have received much notoriety because of what their crude inaccurate climate models have shown.

I do believe with the Ivory Bill story that these scientists are not in it for the money. It is the birder in them that really wants an ivory bill to be found. But, they also realize the enormity of this "discovery" and their claims. So you are correct, there will be no more objectivity (as scientists) from the leaders in this study.
They have received so much attention and money!!!!

As for global warming, the train has been running full steam ahead since about 1988 with that one hot summer. Here are some facts:

1) the world was 2-4C warmer 6000 years ago... the "altithermal period" after the great ice sheets collapsed. Pollen records prove this as the great spruce-fir forests of the north retreated even farther north than where they are found today.

2) the medieval warm period probably was 1-2C warmer than today...farming in greenland? The Vikings were able to do this... I dare anyone to try this today!!! Nothing grows on ice.

3) the Little Age peaked in the early 1800s.... possibly even later (like 1890) based on glacier studies. This period, the earth cooled 1-2C. Glaciers retreated during the medieval warm period for 200 years or longer... so to be in a period of minor glacial retreat (as we see today) is not unusual.

4) the 20th century warming was most pronounced between the late 1800s and 1940. Then there was a period of global cooling from 1940-1977. Then...there is major divergence in the records....the satellite records, the weather balloon temperature records and sea surface temperature records (three independent sources of temperature measurement)...show slight warming (nothing unusual) between the late 70s and present. The "surface" record of which the global warming experts tout... shows rapid warming. The surface record is largely from points in our cities... which have shown urban warming... concrete absorbs more radiation than grass.

5) solar activity was very high in the 20th century. The global warming scientists say it has little effect on our climate. Well, then how come during the 1600s and 1700s did a period of global cooling (rivers were freezing in Europe every winter) coincide with little or no sunspot activity? Just a coincidence. The global warming scientists say that the medieval warm period and little ice age was just a local phenomena. Yet, ice core analysis around the world, reveal with oxygen isotope ratios that this is not true.

6) Here is the big shocker.... CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas!! H2O is by far (at least 90 percent) the most important greenhouse gas.
The climate models have a positive feedback in them that takes a small temperature rise (.5C) due to an instantaneous doubling of C02 (which is unrealistic) and produce more water vapor: warmer temperatures = more water vapor. Thus, with more H20, there is more greenhouse effect. Thus, temperatures rise a little more and you get even more H20 in the atmosphere which warms temps leading to more H20 and so on. A runaway greenhouse effect. It becomes very unrealistic in that these climate models don't even handle cloud cover (they admit this).

Clouds enormously impacts the radiation budget of the earth and regulate how much water vapor is in the air! When it rains and snows, you ultimately lose water vapor from the atmosphere...a natural sink. The red flags are way up now!

7) The ice core records reveal that C02 in the atmosphere PASSIVELY responds to the inferred temperatures. You may have seen these graphs which shows C02 concentration seemingly corresponding in lock step to inferred temperature changes.

If you look carefully, when the temperatures go up, then CO2 concentration increases which occurs up to 800 years after the initial temp increase. With warmer temperatures on the earth, the oceans are warmer and thus less soluble to CO2 and the concentration increases (chemistry 101). The reverse happens when it is colder.

Ice ages show pronounced dips in the C02 record, interglacials show rises in CO2 concentration. So from glacial periods and interglacial periods (22 of them in the last 2 million years) CO2 concentration rapidly rose up to 120 ppm and there was no climate instability.

8) C02 is most radiatively active when it is -50C and colder. If there is little or no water vapor present in the atmosphere, it would be the primary greenhouse gas.
So, there is one place on earth that should be seeing the effects of a CO2 increase first ...antarctica. South Pole station and Vostok have mean temperatures close to -50C and it is bone dry down there...an icy desert. So C02 should have the most leverage on the climate system there. well, temperatures have shown little trend in the last 60 years down there...in fact there has been a statistically insignificant amount cooling!

9) The arctic warming is blown way out of proportion. The sea ice did reach a record minimum (since 1979) based on satellites (before that they "estimated" the extent). However, the amount of sea ice has rebounded and presently is slightly above the 20 year mean for coverage....did you hear that in the news? Of course not. Silence. You never hear about record lows or unusual cold...

check out these web sites.... I could go on and on... but my fingers are getting tired.

It just frustrates me that objective science gets lost when politics, egos and careers enter into the picture. I also really like the quote I found on your web site...which I firmly believe in... "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof"--Carl Sagan
That goes for the proposed global warming disaster and also finding the ivory bill and many many other claims....

john-daly John Daly is dead now so this web site is not updated as much as John was one of the first to take on the experts. The peer reviewed journals in climate have been controlled by those who favor the global warming theories...therefore if you challenge any of these ideas...you don't get published or invited to conferences. So, John, back in the mid 1990s, started this website to put unbiased information out there and make strong challenges to the global warming theories. It is a good starting point.

co2science
climateaudit

I still am hoping you are wrong on the ivorybill!!!! But I don't see how such a large bird, with all these birders on the continent, could go undetected for 60+ years!!!!

You say hate-fest, I say logic-fest

On the NEOORN mailing list, Ellen Paul has posted some subtle criticism of this blog, including:

OH COME ON GUYS - PLEASE DON'T POLLUTE NEOORN WITH THIS STUFF. Not just IBWO generally, but particularly Tom Nelson's blog. That's the worst collection of nasty, snarky group of people I've ever come across.
It is a hate-fest. NEOORN is a wonderful, supportive community. Please don't contaminate it with this stuff.

and:

When you visit the blog, you'll see what I mean. Makes Iraq look like a stroll through the park.

When I read Ellen Paul's opinions above, I once again was reminded of Kent Brockman's quote about Kamp Krusty on The Simpsons:

Ladies and gentlemen, I've been to Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq; and I can say without hyperbole that this is a million times worse than all of them put together.

Ellen Paul is listed here as the Executive Director of the Ornithological Council.

Look at the great things Ellen's Ornithological Council and its members do!

* Link the scientific community with public and private decision-makers
* Provide timely information about birds to help ensure scientifically-based decisions, policies, and management actions
* Inform ornithologists of proposals and actions that affect birds or the study of birds
* Speak for scientific ornithology on public issues

Update: I'm told that Ellen's husband is Tim Boucher, identified here as a Geospatial Scientist with The Nature Conservancy's Habitat Assessment Team. At this link, Tim Boucher writes:

In my opinion, the Sibley article might seem convincing, but the rebutal [sic] is even better...

Don Kennedy to speak

A reader sent along some information about this month's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

There will be a session entitled "Defining and Protecting the Integrity of Science: New Challenge for the 21st Century".

Don Kennedy of Science will speak on "Science, Policy, and Peer Review":

These are intense times at the convergence between science and public policy. Because issues like climate change, stem cell research and environmental protection are being contested in choppy political water, political interests are being deployed to challenge science and researchers, and also to generate pseudo- scientific claims made in the interest of particular policy ends. In a number of cases reported in Science, administration officials have silenced their own employees, or withheld data selectively from draft reports. Added to that challenge to integrity, there is a new statutory environment that adds some complexity of its own. Beginning with the Data Quality Act, more familiarly the "Shelby Amendment," research results with significant economic impacts through regulation are now available through the Freedom of Information Act. Its successor, the Data Quality Act -- which opens a route of challenge to information released by government or gathered by others and used in advice or regulation – has exposed scientists not only to having their primary data reanalyzed for the purposes of others, but to charges of research misconduct. These influences have made journal peer review more challenging in several ways, and I will outline some case examples.

Old friends

If you're wondering why Mel White appeared to pull some punches in his recent National Geographic article, this excerpt from Tim Gallagher's The Grail Bird (page 176) may provide some clues:

Another Arkansas birder who soon joined the search was Mel White, a book author and freelance magazine writer who has a regular column in Living Bird. Mel and I are old friends, and we have traveled together in Africa and a couple of other places over the years...

Tim Gallagher is identified here as editor-in-chief of Living Bird.

More links

1. Here is a blog posting about the ongoing IBWO searches in eight states.

An excerpt:

There is an overall umbrella organization comprised of researchers, conservationists, woodpecker experts, and ornithologists which is coordinating the search for this majestic bird throughout the southeastern U.S. This "team" meets regularly via conference calls and in-person sessions to hammer out the strategy for the search for definitive proof of the Ivory-bill's existence. Currently, there are teams of scientists and volunteers from this organization working in eight southeastern states - TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, SC, NC, and AR. There is a separate Ivory-billed Recovery Team, composed of many of the same people, whose responsibility it is to plan for the ongoing management of the species if and when its presence is documented.

2. According to this BIRDCHAT posting, Jeff Wells was on WMPG (Maine) Community Radio last night discussing the IBWO. If you listened to that show or have further information, please let me know via email or comment.

"Magazine: Rare bird spotted in Midlands"

...and the farce goes on.

Check out this article.

An excerpt:

The people coordinating the ivory-billed woodpecker search at Congaree National Park were surprised that a map in the December issue of National Geographic indicates there were unconfirmed sightings of the bird there in 2006.

They don’t question the map’s accuracy; they just wouldn’t go quite that far. They stick to a strict guideline: Don’t publicize potential sightings until you have incontrovertible proof.

They don’t have that at Congaree National Park. Not yet, at least.

“There were potential encounters that occurred,” said Jennifer Koches, spokeswoman for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which organized the search. “But nothing that we can claim as confirmed documentation.

“We’re going to have to be totally definitive before we go forward with anything. There’s going to have to be photographic evidence.”

Koches refused to offer details about the “potential encounters” other than to say the people involved were knowledgeable about the large woodpeckers that long have been feared to be extinct. What the searchers found in the 24,600-acre bottomland forest prompted the Fish and Wildlife Service to return to the park in 2007 for another coordinated search. Federal agencies and The Nature Conservancy recently hired Matthew Moskwik to coordinate the effort.

The ridiculous map from Mel White's article is available here (PDF format).

Fred's World

Check out this article (PDF format) from Fred Virrazzi.

Here are a few of my favorite sentences:

...As the statistical probability of these events all occurring is calculated, you approach a 99.999% chance that the field observers have located one or more Ivory-billed Woodpeckers.

...The skeptics who require photographic proof should consider funding their own private photo expedition.

...The shrinking group of naysayers should be ignored as their erroneous opinions head toward extinction.

"Panel urges tougher scrutiny of science papers"

Some excerpts from this article:

Top scientists who investigated a fraudulent article co-authored by a University of Pittsburgh biologist and South Korean cloning researchers are calling for tighter scrutiny over how high-profile research papers are selected for publication in scientific journals.
...
Science editor-in-chief Donald Kennedy said the journal would consider the committee's recommendations, but didn't commit to any of them.

"We may now have to abandon the hope that the collective trust will keep on working," Kennedy said, referring to the trust journals place in the integrity of scientists.

Donald Kennedy's editorial "The Ivory-bill Returns" is available here.

Australian parrot controversy

See stories here and here.

Are you sure that's not a gunshot?

Geoff Hill has posted another update (dated 11/27/06) on his Ivory-bill site, and it's a doozy.

Opportunities for real rediscoveries

From a post yesterday on the NEOORN mailing list:

To: NEOORN-L@LISTSERV.LSU.EDU
Subject: [NEOORN-L] Missing Neotropical Species

Dear all,

The good news about the rediscovery of Celeus obrieni reminded me that several Neoorners had provided information a few months back for an article about "lost" Neotropical bird species. This article gives background details for the last 20 missing birds (now 19!) and other poorly known taxa. It has a few interesting photographs too.

For anyone without access to it, it can be downloaded from a link on [this page].

Joseph Tobias
Research Associate
Department of Zoology
University of Oxford
South Parks Rd., Oxford, OX1 3PS
United Kingdom

The "unexplored wilderness" myth

The U.S. Census Bureau provides some data (2001) to quantify hunting and fishing pressure in various states. The numbers for Arkansas are here; Florida numbers are here (PDF format; see page 11 in both cases).

For Arkansas, the listed annual numbers are 430,000 hunters and over 8.4 million hunter-days (and another 13 million fisher-days).

The annual numbers for Florida include 226,000 hunters, and about 4.7 million hunter-days.

This all adds up to a whole lot of people spending a whole lot of time in the field (maybe tens of millions of hours annually in each state). Obviously, not all that time is spent in the "right" habitat; however, any way you slice it, the sheer magnitude of those numbers is absolutely staggering.

If you desperately want to believe that the Ivory-bill lives, it's tempting to dismiss all those hunters and fisherman as Cletus, The Slack-Jawed Yokel. In reality, though, a sizable percentage of hunters and fisherman possess birding skills as good or better than those of Sparling, Kulivan, Harrison, Fishcrow, etc.

Could a population of large, noisy, conspicuous birds have escaped confirmed detection by all those people for over 60 years? I think the probability is essentially zero. This will become even more clear by this spring, when none of this season's organized searches results in the confirmed detection of any Ivory-bills.

A personal note: As a hunter and fisherman myself, I've spent a considerable amount of time far off-road. Specifically, over the years I've been out hunting white-tailed deer in Wisconsin, elk in Idaho, and Dall sheep and caribou in Alaska. I've also been fishing in other remote regions in Minnesota, Canada, and Alaska. In all of these "remote" places, I've found one constant: human sign in the form of tracks, evidence of old campfires, small bits of fishing gear, etc.

Another blown ID

An emailer writes:

Do you think Cornell identified this door knocker design for Sahalie? The picture of the actual item looks more like a Pileated to me...