Why the lack of warming since April '98 should make alarmists really nervous

Here.

From the referenced paper (published in 2000):

“Given the acceleration of the trends predicted by many models, we believe that an additional 10 years may be adequate, and 20 years will very likely be sufficient, for the combined satellite and radiosonde network to convincingly confirm or refute the predictions of increasing vapor in the free troposphere and its effects on global warming.”