Tuesday, November 29, 2011

2006, Briffa on the hockey stick: "I would not have chosen in the original TAR Summary to highlight this one curve - but we should not forget that the considerable uncertainty associated with it was shown"

20006, Email 653: Revkin and Briffa discuss the hockey stick

[Revkin] finally, if the curve had not become so iconic, would we be having this discussion?

[Briffa] Probably yes - I would not have chosen in the original TAR Summary to highlight this one
curve - but we should not forget that the considerable uncertainty associated with it was
shown . However it was always likely hat this curve would be challenged from a scientific
point of view - as is correct - as new data and different reconstruction methods are
adopted . The conclusions regarding the reality of unusual warming have certainly not been
overturned since then , however. In fact, many subsequent analyses seem to reinforce this.
So do not let scientific development (and sceptic misinformation ) obscure this important
message.
This is not to say that future work will not overturn this - but we can only conclude to
the best of knowledge at any one time.

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