Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Wait, what?: UCAR: "This month is on track to produce fewer tornadoes than any July on record, and by a long shot"

So maybe CO2 *doesn't* actually cause tornadoes?  Maybe CO2 *doesn't* actually make the weather riskier?

Summertime, and the twisters are missin' | UCAR
Bob Henson | July 24, 2012 • Heat and drought are punishing much of the United States right now, but there’s actually some good weather news to report. This month is on track to produce fewer tornadoes than any July on record, and by a long shot.
...The next-most-quiet July after 2012 is 1960, which saw a total of 42 tornadoes—three times what we’ve seen thus far this month. Many Julys have produced more than 100 twisters...
Shown in red are the tornado counts as adjusted for report inflation by Harold Brooks (National Severe Storms Laboratory) and Greg Carbin (SPC). This procedure boosts the numbers in earlier years to replicate what might have been observed if Twitter, smartphones, and chase tours had been around at the time. The adjustment is smaller for more recent years, zeroing out for the current year. What this means is that the dearth of tornadoes in July 2012 becomes still more impressive. In the adjusted data, the quietest July is 2007, with 73 tornadoes—more than five times the current total for this month...

In fact, this month could end up producing fewer tornadoes than any month on record for meteorological summer (June, July, and August)...
Interestingly, prior to 2012, the three most tornado-starved Julys in the adjusted data are 2002, 2006, and 2007. Both 2002 and 2006 were among the nation's warmest 10 Julys in the last century, just as this one is shaping up to be. When a summer month is unusually hot, it generally means the polar jet stream has been shunted well to the north by domes of high pressure. That means less upper-level energy to fuel tornadic thunderstorms. Nontornadic storms (which rely less on wind shear and more on heat and moisture) may still pop up, assuming drought hasn’t taken hold.

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