Jeff Bouton's take on the IBWO controversy

Laura Erickson posted an interesting BIRDCHAT message from Jeff Bouton here.

Below is my first response. Later, I may write a further response.

Hi Jeff,

Just a few points where we differ:

1. Jeff wrote: "Sure, they are marked similarly, but an Ivory-billed absolutely dwarfs a Pileated in mass, it's a much bulkier bird, with a different wingshape, and it is said to have an entirely different flight style, and a different sillouhette and shape."

Regarding flight style:

Actually, out of all seven sight records in Cornell's paper, I only see one sighting that mentions flight style: Jim Fitzpatrick saw the flight of his bird as steady and "loon-like". Tanner writes this on page 1 of "The Ivory-billed Woodpecker":
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The manner of flight of the bird cannot be used as a reliable field character. Much has been written and said on how the Ivory-bill flies directly and straight while the Pileated's undulates, but I have frequently seen Pileateds fly directly, in no way different from the flight of the larger bird.
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Regarding size, Tanner said this:
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The Southern Pileated is about 17 inches long, but it is a stockier bird and the difference in length is not a reliable character unless the two species are seen together.
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2. Jeff wrote: "They wouldn't admit they had seen something without being 100% sure (they have far more to lose than any one of us). I'd bet my very existence on it."

You may want to reconsider that bet.

It's important to remember that many of the birders behind Cornell's "convincing sightings" were not 100% sure themselves that they had seen an Ivory-bill. In the "Grail Bird", Tim Gallagher wrote: "I was annoyed that so many people were throwing out percentages about how sure they were that they had seen an ivory-bill. Ron and David were maybe 85 percent sure; Jim Fitzpatrick was 98.5 percent sure; now here was Mindy saying she was 99 percent sure of her sighting."

Of course, Sparling had the initial sighting that sparked this entire thing.
On page 146 of "The Grail Bird", there's this interesting exchange:
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After a long talk with Gene, Bobby told him "It sounds to me like you've seen an ivory-billed woodpecker."
"You think so?" said Gene. "I don't have enough confidence to make that call, but I'm glad to hear you say that".
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3. Jeff wrote: "Here you have trained, professional biologists..."

Four key observers were Gene Sparling, Tim Gallagher, Bobby Harrison, and David Luneau. None of them are trained professional biologists. I'm not questioning their experience, their honesty, or their credibility; however, I would like to point out that they are human and like all of us, they are fully capable of making mistakes.

Regards,
Tom Nelson