Tuesday, October 25, 2005

A slippery slope?

To me, this sentence from this recent article represents some over-the-top spin:

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The Cornell experts have not completely ruled out the possibility—albeit slim—that the calls were those of jays, seen in the area where the sounds were retrieved.
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People have been hearing tantalizing kent-like calls in the US, over and over, for 60+ years. In zero percent of those cases, an Ivory-bill has subsequently been found in the area. In 100% of those cases, when the source of the sound was positively identified, it was something other than an Ivory-bill.

So now Cornell has recorded some more kent-like calls (rumor has it, these calls may have been recorded 50 or more miles away from the area of the "robust sightings"). They've searched the area, and no Ivory-bill has been found. In the area, they have observed jays uttering long sequences of nasal tooting calls that sound like Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. On the recordings, Blue Jay sounds are heard within 5 minutes of the kent-like calls. Blue Jay recordings in their own collection appear to be a good match for the "mystery sounds".

If Cornell was to spin the possibility as "slim" that the calls were those of jays, I'd say they were headed down the slippery slope toward prevarication.