"We are on a very cold trail right now"

You should read this entire article at Syracuse.com.

Here are a few snippets, with my comments in red:
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"It's frustrating, because we are on a very cold trail right now," said Ken Rosenberg, the lab's director of conservation science.
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The skeptics withdrew the paper and said they were convinced the ivory-bill existed, after the Cornell lab sent them audio recordings that captured the bird's calls and knocks.

Inexplicably, Prum and Robbins did say they were convinced by the audio. Jackson remains publicly unconvinced.

Not everyone is convinced, and the debate continues on the Internet. One blogger, who identifies himself as an "avid Minnesota birder," maintains a Web site called "the ivory-bill skeptic" and contends the searchers probably spotted an abnormal version of the pileated woodpecker.

"I think the search team is so committed to their 'Ivory-bill' discovery that they can't be expected to do true objective, cold-hearted analysis of the evidence any longer," the anonymous skeptic said. "I think they've invested so much work and time into this project that expecting them to step back, take a fresh look and ask 'Could this really all be a mistake?' is asking way too much."

He's wise to remain anonymous. If he published his real name and email address, he'd probably be subject to some personal attacks these days. You certainly don't want your name attached to ideas that may be logical but unpopular.

Cornell ornithologists figure a systematic, strategic search is the best response.
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This year's search, funded by $800,000 in private donations...

The article also says that last year's search cost was similar. If so, we're talking about $1.6 million spent on search costs alone. At some point, it may make sense to ask whether that money could be better spent on things like protecting habitat for birds that are known to exist.

Sleuthing for clues to a rare bird's existence turns out to be tough on morale.

"The work itself, on a day-to-day basis, is quite tedious," Rosenberg said. "It seems exciting, but what you're doing is sitting on a log, swatting mosquitoes and trying to stay awake."...

"What's going to happen if we go five years and never see the bird?" Rosenberg asked. "It could fade from the spotlight and become a chapter in the crazy history of the ivory-billed woodpecker."
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