Estimated probabilities

Regarding the Ivory-bill controversy, I've attempted to predict the future before. This time, I've attached some probability numbers to some predictions:

Probability that searchers in Arkansas will have numerous tantalizing glimpses of birds that could be Ivory-bills--100%

Probability that ARUs and searchers in Arkansas will detect numerous tantalizing kent-like calls--100%

Probability that ARUs and searchers in Arkansas will detect numerous tantalizing double-raps--100%

Probability that searchers in Arkansas will detect numerous examples of tantalizing bark peeling--100%

Probability that searchers in Arkansas will capture additional video clips blurry enough to be inconclusive--99%

Probability that the Cornell team will officially release additional inconclusive video--33%

Probability that some non-Cornell person will attempt a fairly high-profile hoax (using a fictitious story of a very impressive sighting record, a faked picture, a feather from a museum specimen, etc)--40%

Probability that searchers in Arkansas will capture definitive proof that the Ivory-bill lives-- less than 1% [changed from "less than 5%" on 12/19/05]

Probability that numerous "believers" will eventually argue that the 2004 Arkansas Ivory-bill was the last of his kind--90%

Probability that one or more formal critical papers will be published by July 1, 2006--90%

If a critical paper is published, probability that numerous people will then reveal that they were privately skeptical all along--99%

Probability that the birding public will be much less confident of the Ivory-bill rediscovery story by July 1, 2006 than they are today--90%