Monday, December 12, 2005

Groupthink illustration

In a small way, this article illustrates how groupthink may have caused Cornell to overweigh the significance of flimsy evidence (the bold font is mine):
Project manager Ron Rohrbaugh was the first to sit and listen [to a recorded double-knock]. When the knock filled the room, he nearly jumped up. Seeing Ron get that excited caused my heart to skip a beat. Before, we wanted to believe it was an ivory-bill; now it seemed it really could be one.
...
Fitz arrived shortly and sat in a chair facing the screen, head down, eyes closed, focused. After the double knock again filled the room, Fitz raised his head and looked around, uttering "Holy mackerel!" He didn't have to say much more: that reaction pushed our excitement off the chart.
Above, team members in the room allow themselves to be significantly influenced by the opinions of others, rather than relying on their own independent assessments of the evidence.

I think these admissions are also worth noting:
Because there are other sources that can make double knocks (branches, other woodpeckers, gunshots), it may be that we can never say with 100 percent certainty that any recorded double knock was made by an ivory-bill. The kent calls may be the only way to acoustically determine the presence of ivorybills. As of this writing we are trying to see if a Blue Jay could be the vocalist. We've heard Wild Turkey, Red-winged Blackbird, Common Moorhen, American Coot, and even Great Blue Heron calls that are deceptively similar to the ivory-bill recordings we have from 1935.