The "Hidden Problems of Expectation and Suggestion" are very much on point here.
In graduate school and law school we were continually immersed in Daubert et al.'s enigma. I am tempering my sarcasm a bit now when I realize how I would feel if I thought I'd seen a living specimen of Hoplodactylus delcourtii after studying that incredible creature for years in texts and then, after a few glimpses of a large gecko in a forest, couldn't produce more evidence.
In essence, Daubert et al's work may explain the problem without harming the egos of the observers (I hope). While I appreciate their undying optimism more these days and understand better their collective wish for this magnificent creature to exist I still stick to my arguement of "good evidence replicated" rather than "weak evidence sporadically reported" as any sort of standard. From the additional materials I've perused on Ivory Billed Woodpeckers I'd have to say that my 1%-10% belief that they exist in the continental United States is nearly zero. The Tanners', Allen, and Kellogg provided information that was internally consistent.
The current believers just cannot produce the requisite evidence. And to their greatest credit, it is not from a lack of trying. Indeed, if there were any more Northern Ivory Bills in existence the diligence put forth by the Pearl River team alone would have produced numerous pictures, if not film, discarded eggshells, or feathers. Their efforts have been noble. Their zeal outstanding. Their frailities human. And their perserverence has been incredible. They still could not, however, find definitive proof of a living Ivory Bill Woodpecker.
After all is said and done their efforts are highly commendable and it was a difficult undertaking.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
"Highly commendable" efforts
Phil Tongier writes:
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3 comments:
Let's not slam the door just yet. If any IBWOs still exist they would have to have adapted to a nomadic existence, because the habitat they require is so terribly fragmented. If the bird sighted was, indeed, an IBWO, then it seems reasonable that it might have been "passing through." Our intrepid researchers could be looking in the wrong place. Failure to locate evidence at the Arkansas site could simply mean that Elvis has left the building.
The search, if it is to be valuable, seems to be happening in the wrong place. If we are to mount the last great Ivory-Billed search, why search a place which may just be a stopover or a corridor? I don't know about nomadic existence... it seems plausible given the behavior of other otherwise sedentary woodpeckers like the 3-toed Woodpeckers of the north who sometimes appear in numbers after a recent large tree kill. (not sure if this happens in nesting season).
Yet too much nomadic behavior would make it hard for them to breed and perhaps even suppress breeding impulses, courtship etc.
Sooner or later they have to settle in on a nest hole area that has to afford them enough easy pickings.
These birds change positions on their nest hole every 2 hours or so.
Male swapping w/female and back again. So they need to
find a place to nest w/enough recently dead trees. If the bird
has to head into Arkansas to get dinner for nestlings... that female
won't get her timely relief from brooding the young.
However there are bigger chunks of land on the google geo maps.
Likely some of this is private land,
of course. I do find it strange that the bird was considered extinct
when the Singer Tract was cut over
and Tanner became more of an "in-office" academic. Writings about Tanner mentioned that in his 60s he would lead field trips w/a rigor that left his young graduate students gasping for breath!
Paul - New Paltz, NY
"Our intrepid researchers could be looking in the wrong place. Failure to locate evidence at the Arkansas site could simply mean that Elvis has left the building."
"The search, if it is to be valuable, seems to be happening in the wrong place. If we are to mount the last great Ivory-Billed search, why search a place which may just be a stopover or a corridor?"
They're both valid points. Maybe it would be advantageous to stop and implement new search protocols?
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