From bootstrap analysis:
In the Sibley paper, similar analytical tools were used to reach a different conclusion than in the original paper, akin to two researchers performing the same experiment and getting different results. Nor have the "results" presented in the first paper been replicated in two years of herculean effort. In the world of science, a situation of this nature would generally be considered to be at the "back to the drawing board" stage. And I think that's where the IBWO is at. Still awaiting rediscovery.The Birdchaser says "Ivory-billed Woodpecker Doubts Explode":
Its a sad day, but hopefully one that can help us refocus our efforts and help us figure out where we're really at with the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, and bird conservation in general.From TheCabin.net, a truly remarkable quote from David Luneau:
"Obviously we'd all agree that it's easier to get video of a pileated woodpecker than an ivory-bill," Luneau said. "But the video that I got of the ivory-bill doesn't match up to any of the videos of the pileated. And for that reason, we say it's an ivory-bill, and we're much more confident about it now than we were last year."Cascadia Scorecard says "Sometimes Extinction is Forever":
...I'm sure the debate is far from over, but I'm ready to conclude that the ivory-billed has gone the way of the dodo.From NPR:
Now an author of famous birding books, David Alan Sibley, offers his take. He says the bird in the video isn't really perched on the tree.From The Birmingham News:
"We're saying the bird is behind the tree, and it has lifted its wings, spread its wings completely over its back and is starting to flap its wings as it pushes away from the tree," he says.
Sibley and a co-author said they met separately with John Fitzpatrick, director of Cornell University's Laboratory of Ornithology, last year to air their concerns.telegraph.co.uk headline:
Fitzpatrick, who declared the tape valid proof in a Science article last year, said that the two aren't a representative group of birders and based their evidence on interpretive sketches. Sibley's argument and his response in the journal make "a good capper to the discussions," Fitzpatrick said.
...
Patten said he and a co-author, Louis Bevier of Colby College in Waterville, Maine, visited Fitzpatrick in June to discuss their concerns.
"I remember Fitz actually saying, `Well what would you do if you were in my shoes?'" Patten said in a telephone interview on March 14. "I was hoping that he and maybe Cornell would maybe dial it down a little - this wasn't perfect evidence - and make it clear when they were soliciting donations."
Sighting of extinct woodpecker proves to be wishful thinkingFrom ABC News:
Now, in a new peer-reviewed article in America's premier scientific journal Science, America's most-noted living birder, no less — one David Sibley — says it ain't so.
Sibley has spent his life honing his powers of close observation of birds — often birds in flight; his newly pre-eminent field guides are noted especially for his depictions of the differing flight styles of different species.
Sibley's magisterial and definitive "Sibley Guide to Birds" is generally acknowledged to have taken the mantle — if anyone has — from the legendary Roger Tory Peterson's series of field guides.
In his closely reasoned new article, "Comment on "Ivory-billed Woodpecker … ," Sibley and co-authors Louis Bevier, Michael Patten and Chris Elphick lay out all the reasons to conclude that the ecstatic sightings and beliefs of last summer were all spurred by a spotting of the similar but somewhat smaller and grayish-billed pileated woodpecker — not the ivory-billed.
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