Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Skepticism on ID-Frontiers

In the recent Ivory-bill discussion on ID-Frontiers, someone recently posted this sentence:
But how the hell could they go this long without being seen well and conclusively photographed?
We can safely assume that the writer is just another one of those "trolls" who probably hates conservation and/or is funded by the evil Arkansas Duck Hunting Cabal, am I right?

Actually, no. The sentence is notable because it was written by John Puschock, listed as a full-time member of the Cornell search team for the '04-'05 season, and back again this year as a "scout" for the search team. John's full ID-Frontiers post (which is, of course, not entirely skeptical) is here.

There's more about Puschock in an old article here:
Now that he's home and the entire world knows about the rediscovery, Puschock says it was an honor to have been part of the search. "The combination of the secrecy and media interest made it feel like you were a combination of a CIA operative and rock star. Well, that's an exaggeration, but it's the closest you're going to get as a wildlife biologist."

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I'm sure that seeing the bird would be the same as seeing a ghost or an alien getting out of a space ship"-Puschock

Truer words have never been said.

Anonymous said...

In Pushcock's post he writes...

So in conclusion (finally!), I agree with Kevin McGowan when he said, “I
would still put the known conspicuous behavior and lack of finding it in the
"against" column. But only as a suggestion and definitely not as a
hypothesis-killing fact.” The apparent lack of finding anything conclusive
in 2 years doesn’t make me terribly optimistic. But on the other hand, I
wouldn’t take the unwary behavior of Tanner’s birds as the end of the story.
Even Jackson’s encounters seem to suggest the possibility of wariness.

But how the hell could they go this long without being seen well and
conclusively photographed?…..

John Puschock
[log in to unmask]

*Perhaps they have in fact been “refound”. The double raps and/or kents
might be legitimate, but of course, there’s no way of being sure.
__________________________
The argument that the birds are not found because of increased wariness can easily be tested....ONCE THEY FIND SOME BIRDS. Until then, this circular argument, bordering on a just-so story, is just mental gymnastics.

I continue to take issue with the asterisked comment at the end of the note - the double raps and kents are published as inconclusive (again, how they ever got that published is beyond my understanding), and continuing to suggest they are more than that casts doubt on an otherwise very good post. There are an infinate number of things that are possible; that is the realm of the hypothesis, not the realm of conclusions.

Cornell did not have the evidence to rule out other species making the sounds, probably because, um, other species did make the sounds! As the keepers of the largest data bank of natural sounds they are the most likely people to have the evidence that would disprove their own work. I think we've seen enough from them to know that they wouldn't release that information.

Anonymous said...

I can’t stand it anymore. I have tried to be a Skeptic on this blog. It’s just not working for me anymore. It’s just not a challenge. So in the good debate tradition I am from now on taking the other side.
For instance, I have determined through scientific sampling of my friends that 95% of all Americans now believe that the IBWO lives. Now I ask all you Skeptics, “what are the odds that 270 million Americans could all be wrong?” Gotcha!! Don’t I?
Yes, from now on I will speak Truth to the Skeptics. Now it’s true that this is the equivalent of speaking Truth to the Unpowerful, but it’s liable to get me into less trouble. So from now on you will know be by my sign,

Signed,
The True Believer.

Anonymous said...

I'm just wondering, does anyone believe any of Jackson's encounters?

Marcus Benkarkis said...

Tom et al;
I am one of the 1000s of bird fanatics who has gone from elation to sadness. Thanks for maintaining this web site. At first I hated your web site and now it is a vision of truth amidst great denial from the established birding experts. Don't be too harsh on the True Believers, they have established a new religion. I am most disappointed in Cornell maybe they should call George W. and see if he needs help on keeping the Iraq fantasy story alive.