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11 comments:
Obviously, the guy has never heard of Fred Collins and John Arvin's search for the 7 pairs that exist in Texas.
Hurrrumph! Pundits....what do they know?!
Signed,
TB
Predictions like Mr. Hendershot's are relevant because on a very basic level science is nothing more than creating and testing explanatory models. We test with predictions. Tom's predictions and Hendershot's predictions are accurate simply because they have good models for explaining the events surrounding the purported sightings.
...so this was my March 4 prediction in these pages explaining why we could be confident no blurry video would be produced by Cornell this spring:
"Here are three trends in the production of evidence that have held true so far and we can anticipate they will continue...
1) Sightings are most frequent when expectations are highest. When you expect a bird behind every tree stump, you see one behind every tree stump. Expectations were highest at first, so sightings were most frequent at first. Certain realities have by now set permanently into the minds of the search team, and we won't see the original frequency or detail in sightings repeated again.
2) Evidence is produced in the order in which it was most desired. First visual confirmations were needed...they came effortlessly. Then a digital image was needed. That was tougher, but it was produced. Then audio was needed. Tougher still, but it finally materializes. Something like a purported eggshell will show up next, not more video. We've got video already, so video isn't needed as much as a feather.
3) The best evidence of any type materializes first. The best visual sighting was the first, followed by the second. No visual sightings have surpassed those two. The best digital image is the first (and only) produced. The best audios are the first produced. They remain the best.
These trends will continue because the evidence is being fabricated by the power of imagination... and its ability to willfully impose patterns or meaning onto random occurrences in nature"
...and here's one response:
"There is not one speck of actual science, but a whole lot of psychobable and conjecture in the above comment, yet you accuse the Cornell team of weak science."
...Guilty as charged, and of course, no feather.
This story is getting old and tired and no one has seen Fitzcrow in a week now ... Tom has taken to posting the salaries of Enviro groups as a way to ... what? Question the "value" of 501C3 conservation efforts ... Don Hendershot has focused on self congradulatory reviews of his swami routine, the outdoor guy in Green Bay sees this as a moment to reflect on the general commitment that western society has toward environmentalism in general.
the carpinterio is back to his former realization that this story is behind us. The best we are going to do is "gee what happened" ... but there will be no accountability moment. No official admission that there never was any firm evidence that this bird persists in AR.
It came and went again, this time the field tech, Rorbaugh, was the man fielding the calls. The Fuertes room has gone dark ... there are other more important projects at hand.
We are back to the way things used to be.
"Tom has taken to posting the salaries of Enviro groups as a way to ... what? Question the "value" of 501C3 conservation efforts"
You disappoint me, Carpintero. You are usually quick to pick up on subtleties.
I love the conservation efforts of the 501(c)3 community as much as anyone but the greed and self importance (combined with self delusion) that characterized the IBWO “rediscovery” and “search” is well on display in the list of salaries. When elementary school teachers are asking for their kids to bring money to school for a group donation to save the IBWO, do you think for a minute the teacher knows she is helping support a group (TNC) whose president has a $23 million dollar discretionary fund or that “paid 1,025 salaries above $50,000, with nine above $200,000 and nine more over $150,000."
There are all sorts of “501(c)3 conservation efforts” but it is important to be able to tell the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t.
I sense frustration, irratibility, and fatigue amongst the skeptic fraternity.
No awards for us, no press releases, no nothing.
There isn't any story in any of this, the WAPO ran the story on TNC a year ago, it came it went. Yawn. No one cares if they park an oil rig on top of an atwater chicken. No one cares if the president of TNC lives in a supersize energy sucking mcMansion in McLean ... what do you want him to do live in a hogan underneath first mesa and herd sheep?
Sawhill used to stump (in broad daylight, with this motto: "Tainted money, Taint enough" - I heard him say it myself - it was no secret, it was his intro line. Sawhill who brought TNC into its current form, (McCormick is just a warm body in the role that Sawhill forged from Noonan's early work), was a director of P&G, a McKinsey Sr. consultant (can you get any more white shoes in your closet?), and a member of the elite class of executives that run the largest corporations in the world. Compared to these salaries, or the compenstaion of simmilar private companies, universities, or foundations, the executives of the big 10 are not comparatively well compensated. My plumber makes over 100K a year and he works in one zipcode.
My point is that environmentalism has always been a largely elite occupation, sure it has tendrils that wrap into deeper social issues that might put you incontact with a person who actually works with his hands or extract resources from the earth for a living, but as the authors of this paper point out, the movement is largely focused on policy and technical fixes that avoid the larger social issues - for instance the failure to forge alliance with labor over CAFE standards. That are at odds with the interests of the uppermost social classes.
Look at who is on these boards and who is giving money - there aren't any surprizes here. These people don't drive SUV's because they have Gulfstream Jets ... like the one that Fitzcrow flew back in the hush hush days of Bobby and Tim's definative "LORD GOD" moment.
This story has always been about the evidence, and that is exactly what we haven't had a fair shake at in the media ... it has always been run as a "he said, Sibley said story" ... sure the arrogance of Fitzcrow et al is hard to stomach (especially the part where Rorbach takes the calls on the closing announcement ... but that is just a side line to the real story which has been the total lack of evidence and the total snow job that was done with that evidence ...
salary schmalary.
Mas Tardes Skepticos,
LOS CARPINTERIO REAL
Capenterio is exactly right. This story is over. You Skeptics need to move one.
To TEXAS!
Yes Fred Collins and John Arvin are right now in the woods (I hope) and are probably sitting at a nest site laughing at you Skeptics.
Give up on Arkansas! The story is now Fitz and Texas. Ok, we're talking second tier efforts as someone said but still it's the logical progression of this story.
You, Skeptics, will be put in your place very soon. That is my bold prediction.
Signed,
TB
Carpinterio;
Question: Are you postulating to a conspiracy theory to accomplish what objective?
Nice paper - good post.
I keep telling my progressive friends that Republican/Democrat it's a bunch of bull, there ain't no difference in today's world.
Blah, Blah, Blah, Carpinterio.
It might just be human nature to focus on the short term and ignore the long. Nothing more than evolution making us focus on the bear that is eating us rather than the crop that needs to be planted.
So what? Fitzcrow was still wrong. Science was still wrong. Who cares about bird forum dot net? They will ALWAYS be wrong.
But science was distorted and that always comes home to roost. Already, Fitz can't show his face in public. Or at meetings.
I hear the snickers among collegues already. That is the story. It always has been on this blog.
So what's your point?
TB, EL Carpintero:
This is/was the Conservation Farce of the Century. Cornell et al. rammed their IBWO fantasy down our throats. Now it's our turn. We want blood. No Mercy. Heads must roll. We need to see some firings, some resignations, and a lot of hand-slapping. Across the board: CLO, TNC, Dept. of Interior/USFWS, AR Records Committee, not to mention some editors (Science, NAB....).
TB, El Carpintero:
To continue...
Besides, who says Team Cornell is crawling back into their IBWO holes. They're just taking a well-deserved break and feeling smug that they got the last word in on poor Jerome (latest Auk). It's not over by a long shot. We must keep the pressure on.
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