Saturday, June 17, 2006

Why?

From the comment section here:
I'm another anonymous poster who works for a leading conservation organization. I was one of the first to bring up the cold fusion comparison. Sometimes I send interesting leads to Tom, but due to where I work, there is no way I can have my name associated with any of this!

I'm also a long-time birder, and see this group think misID thing happen all the time. Sparling I can forgive. He just reported exactly what he saw.
Gallagher and Harrison is tougher. But even a generous interpretation has them fully trusting their ID of the bird based on only one field mark of a quickly observed flyby bird--very shaky evidence.

You can't really blame Fitz for throwing his weight behind this. Maybe he should have been more suspicious of his friend's bird sighting. But if someone you know and trust tells you something, you give them some benefit of the doubt. In this case, the original search was probably warranted.

Then it gets messy. People are now in the field looking for a known bird. Those kind of people make bad ID calls at rare bird stakeouts all the time. Especially when dealing with brief looks of flying birds. After the first season, there should have been some discomfort with the inability to get a good look at the bird.

But it is a big place. If you believe...and at this point, it was all about believing G&H, then it is easy to convince yourself that the Big Woods are so big, that it isn't a surprise that you didn't get a good look at the bird.

And then there was the video. Cornell did all they could think of to try and test it, but it was a crappy video. Maybe they overstated their case.

I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

But one thing I'm wondering, is why did they build up the Big Woods partnership and launch a multi-million dollar land acquisition and field work campaign? What made them think they had enough evidence to justify that? I'm all for putting eyes in the field to try and verify an intriguing sighting. But somehow, it all exploded out of all proportion. The evidence was too weak for that kind of effort.

Of course, it was a judgement call. One that is easier to criticize now, two years later. But still...millions of dollars based on a flyby and a blurry video? For Fritz, that may have been a critical error.

For everyone else, well...they were basically trusting Fritz.

What a fascinating story. Hopefully it can all be told after the dust has cleared--as another cautionary tale for aspiring researchers, politicians, and the introduction to bird identification guides.
Another anonymous commenter responded:
I think the [above] posting by anonymous should be promoted to its own thread - this is a topic that people need to talk about ... "why".

This blog has always been a thought leader on this question and I think this post gets at some issues that we all need to talk about and hear what others think.

When they get burried down here so deep it is hard for others to join in ...

There are lots and lots of people whose lives have been effected by Fitzcrow and their rush to publication and their bogus interpretation of evidence.

This is the first frontier of therapy.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hubris.

Anonymous said...

The Carpinterio agrees with the commenter that this does deserve comment and he intends to comment.

The question is where this thing went so wrong ... and this is the question that the press should be asking.

I think that everyone, including the origninal poster, has been way too generous about the point in time that Fitzcrow et al. decided that the video was "evidence" -

everyone agrees that the video is bad however because we all have the video we can all see that Fitzcrow is wrong about it.

Step back a minute and consider that it isn't, as the commenter suggests that they "overstate" their case. The reality is that their "case" is disputed by people with equal credibility as Fitzcrow and the secondtiercrows at LSU.

Jerry Jackson and Sibley aren't some "skeptics". These guys are peers. The Carpinterio and others have been spot on when they argue that the peer review was circumvented, cherry picked and rushed.

If you step back for a minute it becomes clear that the video was a "hustle" ... not an overstatement.

You can't get past the fact that Fitzcrow fit the science to the "faith" in G&H's sightings. I agree with the original post up to the point that they get to their assesment of the way the video was played.

The video was a con plain and simple.

How can you get around the fact that the script of the events writes out Jerry Jackson?

Lets put this in perspective.

The nations' leading expert on IBWO, the author of the BNA entry, and US government's own point person on the matter gets ... CUT OUT OF THE REVIEW OF THE EVIDENCE?

This was a mistake? No, this was a strategy.

USF&WS was so in the pocket of Fitzcrow and Simoncrow - so fixed on the "land deal" ... Ghallhager so fixed on the book, that no one runs this admittedly poor video evidence past Jackson, man who Zickeefoose said was "without equal" on this topic?

From then on the rest is just history - intimidation plain and simple. Scores of people keeping themselves anonymous for fear of retribution by Fitzcrow, a totally weak, ineffective and effete academic audience, and one NYT reporter who could have, but decided to just sit on the ball and let the clock run out on "timeliness" of the story.

Fitz said ... sibley said - is not the story ... and the record needs to reflect this.

Anonymous said...

Why?

Because from the days that Fitzcrow was a Grad student he wanted to be known as the Greatest Ornithologist in the World (GOINTW)....

Because if you want to be the GOINTW you need to make a great discovery

Scrub Jays didn't do it cause he had to share that with Wolfie - and it wasn't that great anyway

Running CLO, having a Board that required Greatness, fed his ego to even newer heights

Building that building, the Temple, Church, Holy Home of Mythology allowed him to dicover the power of the Preacher that lurked within

Gallagher (Moses) waltzed in with The Greatest Story Ever Told (GSET). It was just what The Greatest Ornithologist In The World (GOITW) needed.

He bit.

Quickly GOITW realized that Moses did not come down from the mount with the Tablets That Spoke The Word Of The Lord. His Tablets were stringy.

GOITW had already told the Greatest Board In The World (GBITW)that he needed lots of $$ to fund Moses' pilgrimages. The die was cast. There was no way out for GOITW.

GBITW gave GOITW $ for Moses' pilgrimage, or crusade.. They spent 40 days and night in the desert, and the finally Apostle David was visited by The Angel of Mercy - The Grail Bird.

The GBITW can't identify birds. GOITW is OK at it, but not this good. But he knows he is better than the GBITW. He sees his con, and this is why he should get his ass fired.

After sitting on the Apostle David's vision for a month or so, GOITW realizes it is the word of God, all he has to do is says it is. An no one, no one, no one is brought into the room who can challenge the GOITW.

Only the GOITW can say what is real, because he speaks the word of God from the Temple. They have Moses' tablets - even though they are fake, and they have Apostle David's vision, his visit from the Grail.

The GOITW brings in only the Greatest Conservation Organization In The World (GCOITW), their boards are cross-pollinating, they are controllable.

The GOITW, GBITW, GCOITW go too far with too little simply because no one was on board to say that God didn't speak to Moses', or that the Angel didn't visit Apostle David. No one at all.

Carpentario is right. It was strategy that kept Jackson et al out of this. It was strategy that kept Jackson off Science's Peer Review. It was strategy that played this out in the press before it was played out among the real bird identification experts.

The strategy, Methinks, was to make Fitzcrow the Greatest Ornithologist In The World.

Anonymous said...

This story just gets better and better.

The one who calls himself, Methinks has laid it out. Okay, the GOINTW' part doesn't scan well, but the story hangs together.

No, there was no no "fraud" in the sense that someone doctored the physical evidence, or stuck a chimp jaw in the dig, the simple explaination is that one powerful guy sought glory, and by keeping the obvious cool headed, rational players out of the room, sold a story so bold that no one thought he could be wrong for the simple reason that no one thought these people would mislead us.

This is the simplest explaination of the events ... occams razor.

Leslie Peacock, if you are reading this (and if she isn't Tom will you please ask her why not?), it is time to start asking why did 200 people sign an NDA and spend a year poking around in the swamp and no one, no one, thought to call the most knowledgable expert on the topic and see what he thought? Why did 17 authors write "Ivory Bill Persists in AR" and why did Science front page the thing with a Hebrew Blessing about resurrection, before anyone thought to seek counsel from the unanimously recognized world authority on the subject?

If that weren't bad enough, we now have to listen to Jerry Jackson get FITZBOATED, after a lifetime of trying to find this bird, when he, speaking as the world authourity on the question, along with the most acclaimed bird field guide artist and a barge load of other eminent scientists, say flat out, in unison, the bird in the video is not an IBWO ...

If Sr. Methinks is right, there is a smoking gun there, written proof that Fitzcrow deliberately cut Jackson out ... and escepitcos anonymi, you need to get this physical evidence over to Ms. Peacock in the conservatory with the candlestick.

Pronto.

Anonymous said...

Methinks would like to issue an apology to our Skeptic Blog Committee of Standards. I posted a long rambling message in the Why? thread, and oh, so lamely, called Fitzcrow GOITW (Greatest Ornithologist in the World).

After careful consideration, I want to change that to GOD (Greatest Ornithological Diety) and the CLO Board should not be GOBITW, but rather GOOBERS (Greatest Ornithology Organization's Board Erroring Really Significantly).

Please accept my corrections.

Anonymous said...

Dear Carpinterio an Methinks-

Awesome! Like, you guys/girls rule, and stuff.

VG

Anonymous said...

GOD for Dr. Fitzpatrick?

I'll go with that.

TB

Anonymous said...

Back after a spell away.

I can go with hubris and misguided belief in themselves, but don't think we have enough evidence to go beyond that in speculating about how the $10M land deal or CLO board discussions may have factored into continuing the stringy sighting or circumvention of the peer-review process.

And lets just get it out in the open. Maybe others have better info, but word on the street is that Jackson wasn't brought in for peer review of the Science piece or included in the original team because Fitz and Co didn't think they could trust him to keep his mouth shut. Other personality issues seem to be in play here, as well. Maybe someone with more info should comment on this...I'm a bit at a remove from that, as I don't know Fitz or Jerry personally.

I'd like to see a timeline showing in more detail how this all played out--when decisions were made, and by whom, with what evidence, to justify multimillion dollar conservation efforts based on a stringy bird sighting and some crappy video.