An excerpt:
...These rumors have since fueled a number of blogs and Web sites devoted to various conspiracy theories about the ivory-billed woodpecker rediscovery.Hey Tim--specifically which blogs and Web sites are devoted to IBWO "conspiracy theories"?
The conspiracy theorists range from people who think the rediscovery was something cooked up by scientists to get more funding for their pet projects to those who believe scientists have always known the bird existed and have kept it quiet for nefarious reasons--which sounds a bit like a plot from an episode of The X Files...
Personally, I've never seen a "conspiracy" here--I think this fiasco likely began as massive foolishness.
I think Hanlon's Razor ("cock-up before conspiracy") probably applies.
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11 comments:
Iiiiiiiii’mmmmmmm Baaaaaacccckkkkkk!
Your TB is back from vacation. Yes, even True Believers take vacations.
But I see that in my absence, someone has upped the ante on me. Yes, there is now a prediction of 9 pairs in Florida. That tops my bold prediction of 7 pairs in the swamps of Texas. (Hmmmm… what has been happening with those Texas boys?.. )
Well, soon IBWO’s will be popping out of the woodwork, or swamps, or where ever they pop out of. And you Skeptics will be sorry then. I’m still betting that Texas produces with the help of John Arvin, Fred Collins, and $100,000 from the feds. I mean….what could go wrong?
That’s Fred Collins, not Mike. I’m not sure what the fishcrow has or hasn’t seen. I may be bold but I ain’t foolish.
So howdy again friends and sidle up to the bar,
I ain’t got nothin’ agin Florida
There are still snakes and arachna
But of habitat it does lack
Once it had many a shack
Now it is infested with Hilton
Housing accountants named Milton
The Sands, Beach Combers, and Palm Inns
Are extinct and replaced by Sheridans
What on earth can an Ivory-billed do?
If Mom and Pops are going away too
Signed,
TB
Oh.....and let me just add that Mr. Tim Gallagher, my biggest Hero (after Dr. Fitzpatrick, that is), is quite correct.
I'm sure that a member of the Explorer's Club, as Mr. Gallagher is, is quite capable of spotting not only Ivory-billeds in the swamps of Arkansas but also conspiracies in the minds of Skeptics.
TB
It can all be boiled down to a simple equation:
Initial Exuberance + Ego + Announcement = Bad Science
I think that should be,
Initial Exuberance + Bad Science + Ego = Announcement
Or it could be,
Ego = ((Initial Exuberance/common sense)*bad science)) if and only if Announcement
Gallagher O' Gallagher, what have you wrought?
You took your good friend, Fitz, on a ride that he didn't decide. Can he ever forgive you your pride before the fall?
Well, perhaps but poor Fitz had a reputation before this fiasco. Gallagher was just the editor of a minor bird magazine, essentially just a glossy newsletter.
Go up the floor, knock on his door. Apologize, sympathize. Do what's right. He will forgive you. He is your friend.
Gallagher O' Gallagher, what have you wrought?
The NY Times last Sunday in the "Week in Review" section had a story by George Johnson about mathematician Grigory Perelman refusing the Fields Medal for his solution to the Poincaré conjecture. What relevance to Tim Gallagher you ask? The article says that Perelman was not so much rejecting the medal but "the idea that in the search for nature's secrets the discoverer is more important than the discovery." This highlights the completely opposite character exhibited by Gallagher, who sucked up that Explorer's Club medal and allowed CLO to advertise it. Perelman is later quoted as saying, "I know that self-promotion happens a lot and if people want to do that, good luck to them, but I do not regard it as a positive thing." Perhaps because Gallagher actually did not discover anything that could be proved, he is exempted from this disparagement.
"Perhaps because Gallagher actually did not discover anything that could be proved, he is exempted from this disparagement."
A good philosophical debate starting point if there ever was one.
I just got the book (much as I hate to support the author), if only to read the afterward. I am intersted to see that Mark Robbins has switched from U Kansas to U Nebraska (Mark, why didn't you tell us?!), and that Gallagher's initial response to the Prum, Robbins, and Jackson paper was "visceral anger." Good to know that, not only does Gallagher take this all far too emotionally, but he's happy to say so to the general public. Way to show yourself to be a scientist, dude!
To be honest, I must say that Gallagher (and Fitzcrow's trust in him) is the center of all this, and should be the first to take blame. I don't know if it's a conspiracy theory, but the perfect timing of the release of the "discovery" with his book, and the obvious commercial interest he, Harrison, and CLO have had in pushing the "truth" of the sighting have made them incapable of being unbiased and scientific and certainly ring of ego trips.
My Two Cents
"Way to show yourself to be a scientist, dude!"
Well, I think you hit the tip of Gallagher's pointed little head. Gallagher is NOT a scientist.
He is the editor of a minor glossy birding newsletter.
That is fine. But that is all.
Mr Two cents,
You are quite right. As Mr. Bill Pullium says, not too long ago there was a "huge taboo" and a big price to pay for reporting an IBWO sighting.
The role that Gallagher played in all of this was to legitimize the sightings. He did this by convincing his good friend, Dr. Fitzpatrick, that they did indeed exist in the swamps of Arkansas.
How? Because he, Gallagher, actually "saw" one. Fitz swallowed hard and against his better judgement leapt off the cliff with the rest of them.
Gallagher made it safe to see "Elvis" again.
The rest, as they say, is hilarious history.
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