Saturday, February 11, 2006

Article on Bobby Harrison

There's a new article on Bobby Harrison in the Lincoln Journal Star.

Here are a couple of excerpts (the bold font is mine):
Despite years of study, Harrison and Gallagher didn’t recognize the rare bird at first. But as it flew closer, they saw its distinct markings, including a tell-tale flash of white on a secondary wing.
...
Harrison has since seen an ivory-billed woodpecker five times. He doesn’t know if some of those sightings were of the same bird, but he did see a female and a male.

Whistling in the dark

Cornell has just posted this article called "Encounters in the Big Woods". Here's a paragraph (the bold font is mine):
According to Ron Rohrbaugh, director of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker Research Project, the search team uses a well-defined system for ranking any possible encounters. He says the latest visual encounters all rank in the lowest classification. "They’re all number ones. That means that no more than one field mark was observed, and it was observed by just one person,” he said. Although the visual and audio encounters may not constitute new confirmation of the presence of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, Rohrbaugh agrees with Lammertink that these encounters keep the crew energized and the morale high.
Note that as of today, two full years have passed since Gene Sparling's claimed February 11, 2004 sighting. After a monumental amount of intense searching, not a single bit of evidence rises above the "false positive" noise that should be fully expected.

Friday, February 10, 2006

An online poll

At Arkansashunting.net, people were polled for their response to this question: "Do you think that at least one Ivory Billed Woodpecker is alive and well in Arkansas?"

As I type this, the 127 responses are fairly evenly split, with a slight edge to "No" (the poll has apparently been ongoing for at least a couple of months).

I'd be the first to say that online polls like this have very limited, if any, value (since the respondents are self-selected, etc).

However, I do think that this poll might reflect a broad trend. If it was run six months ago (in early August, just after it was reported that Prum and Robbins had "confirmed" the rediscovery), I think the answers would have skewed pretty heavily towards "Yes". If it is re-run six months from now, I think the answers will skew pretty heavily towards "No".

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Cornell's Luneau video analysis is now online

Cornell's Luneau video analysis is now available here.

2/9/06 update:

In no particular order, here are some of my first impressions of this analysis:

1. Amazingly, they are still defending the "six-pixel bird", with no mention of it probably being a branch stub.

2. To me, their Pileated Clip 11 looks quite similar to the Luneau bird. As an experiment, if you told a number of "believers" that this was a clip from the Luneau video, I'd be willing to bet that a large percentage would express confidence that Clip 11 shows an Ivory-bill, based on both fieldmarks and "jizz".

3. They show us a video of a Franklin's Gull, leisurely flying away. This is supposed to "prove" that a fleeing Pileated's dorsal wing surface should be prominently visible when viewed from behind.

This comparison makes no sense to me. Instead of admitting that their stiff-winged Pileated re-enactment model was seriously flawed, they went far afield to find a species where a stiff-winged model might have been more reasonable.

4. In my view, this is unrelated to the video analysis, but is notable: "... a few molting pileateds showing some extra white on the wing have been spotted in the Big Woods region of Arkansas".

"...teased but still unappeased"

This article (subscription may be required) in today's Arkansas Democrat-Gazette provides some detail about the results to date in this season's Cornell Ivory-bill search.

Some excerpts (the bold font is mine):
Searchers combing the Big Woods of Eastern Arkansas for ivory-billed woodpeckers have encountered plenty of “teasers” but so far have failed to snap a picture or new video evidence, a key member of the search team said Tuesday...Seven possible sightings were documented from Nov. 8 to Feb. 3, Lammertink said. None is on par with the seven sightings documented in a peer-review article in Science last year, he said...“We didn’t want to go out there and just document the bird again — we feel like we did that with the video,” said Elliot Swarthout...Ken Rosenberg, director of conservation science at Cornell University’s ornithology laboratory, said Tuesday that the lab would post an analysis of the Luneau video online today [Wednesday]...The analysis should be posted at www.ivorybill.org this afternoon, he said.

Bobby Harrison weighs in

This posting appeared last night on the Carolinas Birding email list. Here's one paragraph (the bold font is mine):
I attended the talk that Bobby Harrison gave at the Museum of Natural Sciences Saturday night. I enjoyed the talk and the history of the ivorybill search that Harrison outlined. Harrison is an entertaining speaker who has devoted much personal time and energy to the ivorybill quest. During the Q&A after the talk, someone in the audience asked Harrison about the essay written by Dr. Jerome Jackson that appeared in the Jan. issue of The Auk. As many of you know, Jackson is a well-respected ornithologist and an authority on Ivory-bills, having spearheaded search efforts in the 1980s. I found Harrison's response to the question disturbing. Without addressing any of Jackson's legitimate and insightful points, Harrison simply dismissed the letter with the remark that Dr. Jackson was just exhibiting 'sour grapes'. I wish I had stood up and said something at that point. Dr. Jackson's letter points out some legitimate questions about the process in which the evidence was rushed to publication and questions the flimsy physical evidence presented by Cornell in their paper. To just say that Dr. Jackson has sour grapes is in my mind unfair to Dr. Jackson, a well-respected ornithologist, is irresponsible, and just plain wrong.

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Five leading ornithologists weigh in

Birder's World has just published an excellent new article on the Ivory-bill controversy.

They asked five leading ornithologists for their views on Jerome Jackson's Auk commentary. (As far as I know, this is the first time that any of the five have publicly commented on the controversy).

Based on this article, I would classify four of the five ornithologists as skeptics.

A volunteer's view

Cornell has posted this volunteer's view of the Ivory-bill search, dated 1/27/06.

In my opinion, the following excerpts are notable (the bold font is mine):
...But as always there’s danger as well. A Sharp-shinned Hawk stoops on an unwary Yellow-bellied Sapsucker that screeches away just in time. A Red-Tailed Hawk peers into a roost hole in a dead tupelo from a perch nearby, and every evening Barred Owls eight-hoot in the darkening bayou. And then there’s the rarest of all possible residents of the Big Woods: the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker, maybe the rarest bird in the world. Does it still survive in woodpecker heaven or are the dangers too great?
I think it's nearly certain that this year's search will once again end without definitive Ivory-bill proof. As this becomes more clear, I anticipate increased speculation that the 2004 Ivory-bill(s) have died or moved away.
We were urged to try and practice our videography on the bounding flybys of woodpeckers, and to note any abnormal white plumage on this species. Of all the looks at these beautiful Pileated Woodpeckers that I had, my tape caught mostly blurs, and all were of standard plumage, white underwing patches and not much white on the top of the wing.
The above words may provide some critical insight into the mindset of the search team. If the modern Ivory-bill is viewed as a will-o'-the-wisp that can only be seen as a brief flyby, then maybe our lack of clear photographic proof can be rationalized.
And there was a great mid-weekend birthday party at the duck club with plenty of food, drink, taxidermy, and tall tales of sightings around the campfire.
Tall tales of sightings?

Monday, February 06, 2006

In case you missed it

I want to point out a very important quote by Jerome Jackson in this radio interview late last month:
The analysis of that [Luneau] video has been very thorough, both by the folks at Cornell and by several others, at least a dozen scientists now, and only Cornell confirms that the Ivory-bill is there, based on that video. I don't believe that it's an Ivory-billed woodpecker, and others don't believe that it's an Ivory-billed woodpecker.

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Another viewpoint

An anonymous person emailed me this:
The Arkansas IBWO claim only became a national event because of Cornell's involvement. Stringers see IBWO regularly somewhere within its historic range, but since they invariably lack documentation, their claims are routinely rejected. The sightings in this case are no different.

Furthermore, had the video simply been played at the AOU convention, it would have been hooted away like the photos produced by Lowery. But, after more than a year of secrecy, the video was produced along with a peer-reviewed paper, an elaborate analysis purporting to show that the bird photographed could only be an Ivorybill, and a long list of sight and sound records by people with degrees in biology. Since the search had been suppressed, birders without a conflict of interest had no opportunity to look for the bird until after publication, and then the area where the bird had been seen was closed off and policed with armed guards. The result was favorable publicity and enhanced professional status and increased funding for the insiders. In retrospect, the process appears to have been corrupt per se.