More estimated probabilities

As of 9/22/06, I estimate these probabilities:

Probability that searchers in Florida have had (and will continue to have) numerous tantalizing glimpses of birds that could be Ivory-bills--100%

Probability that ARUs and searchers in Florida have detected (and will continue to detect) numerous tantalizing kent-like calls--100%

Probability that ARUs and searchers in Florida have detected (and will continue to detect) numerous tantalizing double-raps--100%

Probability that searchers in Florida have detected (and will continue to detect) numerous examples of tantalizing bark peeling--100%

Probability that searchers in Florida have captured (and will continue to capture) additional video clips blurry enough to be inconclusive--99%

Probability that searchers in Florida have captured (or will ever capture) definitive proof that the Ivory-bill lives--less than 1%

My estimated probabilities from December '05 are here.

A link from the comment section

Earlier today, "stevev" posted this link in the comment section here.

Stellar reporting from Willy Zimmer

Here.

Update 1: After I emailed Zimmer a link to this blog this morning, he sent me this reply (posted here with his permission):

Hi Tom, I enjoyed the postings on your blog. I'm well aware there are any ivory-bill skeptics, and there should be until a bird is actually in hand and positively identified. eWhen I do advances like this, however, I need to take Gallagher's story at face value, because the event isn't really a debate. Actually I did a column a few months ago on the economic benefit of having a nearby once-thought-to-be-extinct species, and how it will remain alive and well if there's money to be made. Check it out at [this link]. I'll check out your blog regularly, and link it to mine.
Thanks for reading

Update 2: Here is a related new blog entry from Zimmer.

Prepare to be underwhelmed

Indications are now very strong that the Florida "Ivory-bill" evidence falls in the familiar "unsubstantiated sightings, blurry photos/videos, double-knocks, kent-like calls, bark scaling, etc" category.

Yet again, it looks like we'll be presented with a "body of crappy evidence". This should be the expected result whenever wishful thinkers spend some time gathering "data", even from locations completely devoid of their quarry. Examples are here, here and here.

If you're a believer expecting a repeat of the media fireworks of late April 2005, you might want to ratchet down your expectations a bit.

Gallagher to speak in Wyoming next week

Excerpt from this link:

Ivory-billed woodpecker topic of CC talk

The man who has spent a good portion of this century searching and finally sighting the once thought-to-be extinct ivory-billed woodpecker will speak at Casper College.

The Zimmerman Lecture Series presentation will take place on Tuesday, Sept. 26, beginning at 7 p.m. in Durham Hall, located in the Aley Fine Arts Center.

Tim Gallagher, author of “The Grail Bird: Hot on the Trail of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker,” sighted the bird along with Bobby Ray Harrison, friend and ivory-billed woodpecker chaser, in February 2004.

The world learned of their discovery in April of 2005 after more research and study was done in the Arkansas swampland.

“This (sighting) is one of the most remarkable ornithological and biological discoveries of the century n an incredible bird once thought extinct. It is amazing,” says Will Robinson, Casper College biology instructor.

Free tickets are available for Gallagher’s talk, which will include “a fascinating power point presentation,” by calling Casper College at 268-2631 or 268-2256.

Only those with tickets will be admitted, and seating is limited to 300. Following Gallagher’s presentation, a question and answer session will take place.

The Casper College bookstore also will have copies of Gallagher’s book for sale, and it is anticipated that Gallagher will sign copies. Refreshments will be served.

A reminder

Apparently, we're all hearing pretty much the same rumors about the alleged Florida Ivory-bill evidence, but as far as I know, most or all of us have not seen the actual alleged evidence. The evidence is consistently described along the standard double-knocky/blurry video/unsubstantiated sighting/etc lines.

Please remember that it's perfectly OK to express belief in the evidence without actually seeing it; however, note that all expressions of skepticism must wait until after the Official Announcement.

Persons expressing any skepticism before that time obviously know nothing about science. Where I come from (Minnesota), we have a phrase to describe such persons. We call them "Bad People Who Wish the Ivory-bill Was Extinct and Who Probably Hate Conservation and Puppies Too".

(Warning: This post contains extensive sarcasm.)

Your comments are being read

Over the last couple of days, traffic has been unusually heavy on this blog. Many readers seem to be repeatedly checking the comment section.

Hits from domains like uwindsor.ca, auburn.edu, cornell.edu, and fws.gov have been frequent.

It's still all about the roost-hole

About a year ago, I wrote this:

In the end, I think the whole Ivory-bill controversy really boils down to one thing: finding an active roost hole. Back in the '30s and '40s, these roost holes were found many times, and high-quality evidence was gathered there. If any birds still survive today, someone will find an active roost hole, and indisputable, high-quality photographic evidence and sightings will quickly follow.

I've heard a lot of detailed rumors about the alleged Florida IBWOs, and none of them contain any mention of a located roost hole or high-quality photographic evidence.

Inspired by Cornell, are reputable people actually poised to announce Ivory-bill "proof" based only on a flimsy "body of evidence" such as the usual unsubstantiated sightings, blurry photos/videos, double-knocks, kent-like calls, bark scaling, etc?

Not very remote

A comment here suggests that IBWO(s) may be claimed in the Florida panhandle along the Choctawhatchee River near the Roaring Cutoff and Morrison Springs.

A look at a map here suggests that the Roaring Cutoff area is not very remote, with a cluster of buildings about a half-mile away.

Lots of nearby roads are also visible on this map, with one not much more than 600 yards away from the "Roaring Cutoff" area.

Giving 'em chills

From this blog entry about a Sufjan Stevens performance:

Everyone stood as Stevens took the stage, and few ever took their seats again. The string section came out, the brass players, Shara set up and sang harmony, the drums, the bassist…there was an entire family onstage, a family wearing wings nonetheless. The players wore butterfly wings, while Stevens wore the wings of a thunderbird, one more visual reference to his series of bird songs. He even played "Lord God Bird" to full effect, a song inspired by the reappearance of the thought-extinct ivory-billed woodpecker in Arkansas and played for NPR's All Things Considered. Bird visuals paraded across the screen behind the band while Sufjan gave everyone chills with the line, "And the watchers beware, lest they see it fall."...

You can listen to a related NPR story here. The song itself is available here (MP3 format; 3.4 MB); the lyrics are here.