Monday, February 19, 2007

Bivings paper

Mentioned here.

I've read the paper, but I haven't yet found a freely available copy online.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Bivings believes that a pattern of a number of Ivory-billed Woodpecker sightings at a seemingly unlikely location followed by a sharp decline in further encounters is consistent with young birds venturing forth (from private holdings) to find new territories."

It is also consistent with the process of "confirmation bias" leading to an episode of "communal reinforcement" and subsequent publicity resulting in scrutiny sufficient to expose both the confirmation bias and communal reinforcement.

Anonymous said...

He admits that prior to the rediscovery announcement in 2005 no locals ever mentioned Ivory-bills to outsiders, including him, although he spent a great deal of time with them during his tenure. Now residents claim they have knowledge these birds persisted in the area all along, but were afraid to say anything for fear that waterfowl hunting, an economic mainstay, would be curtailed or prohibited.

Here's my bootstrap analysis: Whenever there is a "flap" in the Bigfoot/UFO/Mothman vein, lots of people step forward and say "Me too! I saw it!"

Look, there's a $10,000 reward for information leading to a ivory-billed woodpecker nest, roost cavity or feeding site in Arkansas. If a lot of people are seeing these birds, there is no doubt someone would step forward to claim that reward. Once again, when people have to produce some irrefutable IBWO evidence they come up empty.

It's time to bring up the Cottingley Fairies story again where experts came forward and said the photos were genuine and could not be faked. (See Wikipedia)

People believe in the lousiest evidence when they really want to believe.

Anonymous said...

More bs about how private landholders from the Deep South have hypothetically demonstrated wise use and stewardship of a nonexistent resource.

I'm sure private lands are major sources for Bigfoot populations too.

I do agree with the rednecks about one thing, which is that public officials are wasting our tax money.