Here's the abstract:
Nine long and nearly continuous sea level records were chosen from around the world to explore rates of change in sea level for 1904–2003. These records were found to capture the variability found in a larger number of stations over the last half century studied previously. Extending the sea level record back over the entire century suggests that the high variability in the rates of sea level change observed over the past 20 years were not particularly unusual. The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century (2.03 ± 0.35 mm/yr 1904–1953), in comparison with the latter part (1.45 ± 0.34 mm/yr 1954–2003). The highest decadal rate of rise occurred in the decade centred on 1980 (5.31 mm/yr) with the lowest rate of rise occurring in the decade centred on 1964 (−1.49 mm/yr). Over the entire century the mean rate of change was 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/yr.To me, this data seems highly inconsistent with hysterical scenarios of 20-foot sea level rises this century (that would be an average of 60+ mm/yr).
Again, here's an excerpt from an ABC News story (the bold font is mine):
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has doubled in the last 30 years and global sea levels could rise 20 feet by the end of the century, creating tens of millions of refugees, according to his [Gore's] documentary.
Posts
4 comments:
Tom,
Since I only see you focussing on opinions and some data from the small minority that deny human induced climate change, I must assume you have already made up your mind about the issue. I true skeptic would be looking at both sides of the issue in their search for the truth. Much like the much and properly maligned Ivory-bill believers, your opinion flies in the face of overwhelming evidence.
Thank you for your comment.
from the small minority that deny human induced climate change
I'm not aware of anyone who denies any human induced climate change. A lot of highly-qualified people don't think that the weight of scientific evidence supports the notion of significant human-induced global warming.
If you live long enough, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if you'll see a time where the earth is cooling once again; the media again present this as a Very Bad Thing; and human activity will again be blamed.
I true skeptic would be looking at both sides of the issue in their search for the truth.
Agreed. I've been doing a lot of this, and the arguments of the climate alarmists appear to be based on very flimsy science.
in the face of overwhelming evidence
What overwhelming evidence? Please be very specific.
respectfully speaking, your argument is a lot like saying "this freezer never leaked before we unplugged it."
sea level rise is a result of sustained warm temperatures in the poles - such temps have been racing upward in recent years. comparing to sea level rises in previous decades just isn't applicable.
the scenarios you describe as "hysterical" come quite straightforwardly from the amount of water contained on Greenland and on the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet - each worth about 6 m of sea level rise if all were to go, i believe.
rates of melting in those areas is likely to increase rapidly because floating ice shelves are disappearing (see wikipedia: Larsen B Ice Shelf). Once gone, the flow of glaciers sitting on land accelerates greatly. Richard Alley from Penn State is a leading scientist on this topic.
for good, sober writing about climate change from real climate change scientists, read realclimate.org
(note: i'm not affiliated with that blog. I just think everybody needs to understand climate change better. it's too easy to believe the people who are trying to tell you it's not a big deal.)
it's too easy to believe the people who are trying to tell you it's not a big deal.
But again, if 20+ foot sea level rises this century are realistic, why is the IPCC projecting sea level rises of roughly 1 foot this century?
Post a Comment