Here.
I think many of Munger's items contributed to this most recent "Ivory-bill" hysteria (for starters, see items 2, 4, 7, and 10).
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5 comments:
Most of his items seem applicable to me. The IBWO rediscovery should by all rights go down as a classic case of human misjudgement.
What we've learned is that there are many stringers among "top birders", many more birders who actively support or at least condone them, and far too many ornithological "experts" with no common sense whatsoever. We've also learned that conservation decisions and government policy are not based on good science, but we already knew that perfectly well.
Anybody who still clings to the "body of evidence" theory to "prove" the IBWO is still alive should read this article ... twice.
IBWO atheist wrote:
"...there are many stringers among 'top birders'..."
I'm just curious as to who you are referring to here. If a "stringer" is someone who claims to have seen a rare bird but hasn't/lies about it, I'm not sure who you are talking about. None of the "top birders" who have gone to look have claimed to have found anything. The idea that the IBWO experience shows that there are "many" stringers among "top birders" is just crazy. Maybe your definition of "top birder" is just different than mine. I'm not raising this point to try to antagonize you, I would just honestly like to know who fits that definition and has claimed an IBWO.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/06/26/giant.penguin/index.html
Clarke emphasized that because some penguins on the lower branches of the birds' family tree lived well in warmer temperatures, it would be a colossal mistake to believe that penguins now living could simply adapt to the changes brought about by global warming.
"What happened over millions and millions of years cannot usefully inform us about what may happen over just the next 1,000 years," she said. "The data from these new fossil species cannot be used to argue that warming wouldn't negatively impact living penguins."
These penguin fossils may change understanding of just how and where these flightless birds evolved. Until now, researchers theorized that penguins evolved in high latitudes in New Zealand and Antarctica, eventually moving to warmer areas nearer the equator about ten million years ago. That would have been 24 million years after the transition from very warm temperatures in the Paleocene and Eocene eras to major planetary cooling and the appearance of permanent North and South Poles.
So what does a vertebrate paleontologist think about all the attention penguins are now getting with pop culture hits like "March of the Penguins" and "Happy Feet"?
"Anytime people are motivated to engage and become emotionally connected to the natural world is a good thing for conservation concerns," said Clarke.
Maybe Disney will get IBWO fever.
"If a "stringer" is someone who claims to have seen a rare bird but hasn't/lies about it, I'm not sure who you are talking about."
Everyone who claims to have seen the IBWO since 1944.
"None of the "top birders" who have gone to look have claimed to have found anything."
Top birders (no ironic quotes) have not found anything, but "top birders" like Tyler Hicks have.
"The idea that the IBWO experience shows that there are "many" stringers among "top birders" is just crazy."
You are right that few top birders (no quotes) have claimed sightings themselves, but some of them, like perennial WSB champions Rosenberg and Fitzpatrick, are among the top supporters of stringers in birding history.
"Maybe your definition of "top birder" is just different than mine."
Maybe you don't understand the ironic use of parentheses.
"I would just honestly like to know who fits that definition and has claimed an IBWO."
Rosenberg, Fitzpatrick, et al. have claimed an IBWO based on sightings by stringers even though they didn't claim to see one themselves. Aiding and abetting stringers is almost as bad as being one yourself.
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