Friday, November 09, 2007

Paper by Hans Labohm

Here.

Excerpts:
Some main points of criticism of the IPCC include:
- The hypothesis that an increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will lead to a rise in temperature has not been proven and is even at odds with the observations.
- Satellite-based temperature measurements show that the earth has warmed a few tenths of a degree Celsius between 1979 and 1998. It is not likely that this is caused by mankind.
- There is still a lack of scientific understanding, required to model all assumed radiative forcings. The most important one, for which there are not sufficient quantitative data to date, is the variable impact of clouds.
- Climate models, which are being used to achieve a better understanding of the climate system, are not suited to serve as basis for predictions. This is, inter alia, related to the stochastic nature of climate.
- The global climate is very much determined by extra-terrestrial phenomena, of which the fluctuation of sun activity is the most important.
- Should there still be global warming in the future, for which there are only model-based indications, then mankind will not be able to do something about it. Moreover, also according the IPCC, a modest additional warming (e.g., of 2 degrees Celsius) will on balance be beneficial for mankind.
- The IPCC has ignored the climate projections of astrophysicists, which suggest global cooling.
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The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Its mission is: ‘to assess the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.’

Various authors have pointed out that the mandate of the IPCC is too narrow and not purely scientific, since its wording presupposes that there is such a thing as man-made global warm ing (often referred to as AGW: Anthropogenic Global Warming), which excludes other explanations for the (modest) warming which has taken place over the last century.
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Ironically, just as global warming scare-mongering reaches new heights, the global cooling hypothesis is making a comeback.
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Some time ago the astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg declared that the Earth will experience a ‘mini Ice Age’ in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity. Temperatures will begin falling five or six years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak. The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline, between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said. This view is shared by the Belgian astronomer, Dirk Callebaut, who expects a ‘grand minimum’ in the middle of this century, just like the Maunder Minimum (1650-1700 – even colder than the Dalton Minimum), a period during which the Thames, the Seine and the Dutch canals were frozen in winter. A similar message came from solar physicist David Hathaway, who pointed out that the Sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record low crawl. This has important repercussions for future solar activity. The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle. According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity 20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. Hathaway believes that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries. Finally, the climatologist Olech Sorochtin, member of the Russian Academy of Physical Science, has recently published an article in which he also supports the idea of an imminent little ice age.

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