"False Sense of Certainty"

Here.

Excerpt:

If all your forecasts are coming out in the bottom 1% of the forecast range, then it is safe to assume that one is not forecasting very well. Which reminds me of Michael Mann, who said with famous confidence that there was a 95-99% probability that 1998 was the hottest year in the last 1000, which is an absurd claim. (Mann now denies having said this, but he is actually on film saying it, about 25 seconds into the linked clip).

For you Ivory-bill buffs, a climatologist claiming 90% certainty on something is comparable to an ornithologist claiming 90% certainty that a glimpsed bird was an Ivory-bill.