A lot of money is being bet on, and a lot of policy has assumed, extensive substitution of biofuels (mostly ethanol for now) for petroleum as a global warming program. These publications are the sudden expansion of a cloud on the horizon no bigger than a hand into a very scary, dark overcast.
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Tom, I'm sorry to say you linked to a real stinker here. The basis for his argument is the NYT 8 Feb 08 article that refers to two recent Science articles. He (Michael) attempts to extrapolate far beyond what the research actually shows.
In fact, newer generation approaches to 1. lignocellulosic alcohols, 2. algal biodiesel and biopetroleum, and 3. combined heat/electric generation from biomass promise to jump into a different universe of cost/benefit analysis than what was used in the already outdated Science articles.
Michael's post is basically secondhand extrapolating from a secondhand NYT article based on obsolete findings in two Science articles.
Thanks, Al!
Just double-checking--do you think that biofuels currently being mass-produced have a very poor cost-benefit?
Corn ethanol and palm oil etc. seed oils are mediocre in terms of cost/benefit. Jatropha is a bit better. Those are all first generation biofuels.
Second-generation fuels and approaches are already being implemented and show tremendous promise in terms of cost/benefit.
My beef is not with you, but rather with the article you linked, which plays fast and loose with the original data. That may be because he relies on the NYT as source material.
As you know, I am unconcerned about CO2 emissions. Most of the BS tossed around condemning biofuels now is based on CO2 balance calculations, which I see as irrelevant.
The economic argument is far more important, and the 2nd and 3rd generation approaches to biofuels look very good in economic terms.
As for "why isn't everybody doing it if it's so good?", it is a matter of building the infrastructure from the ground up. The research looks good, it scales very well up to a certain point.
Now it is a matter of proving that 2nd and 3rd gen approaches scale up to the massive levels of modern industrial demand. That takes time.
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