Quebecers can adapt to cold, but will consistently respond to theoretical slightly warmer future summers by dropping dead

Death by global warming: Quebecers at risk : What the Health? : Macleans.ca Blog Central

The Laval study, titled “The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Quebec, Canada,” found no benefit from warmer winters. Quebecers, they concluded, are already equipped to handle the cold, so bad winter weather doesn’t have the same negative health consequences there.

From a related Bjorn Lomborg article here:

For Europe as a whole, about 200,000 people die from excess heat each year. However, about 1.5 million Europeans die annually from excess cold. That is more than seven times the total number of heat deaths. Just in the past decade, Europe has lost about 15 million people to the cold, more than 400 times the iconic heat deaths from 2003. That we so easily neglect these deaths and so easily embrace those caused by global warming tells us of a breakdown in our sense of proportion.

How will heat and cold deaths change over the coming century with global warming? Let us for the moment assume—very unrealistically—that we will not adapt at all to the future heat. Still, the biggest cross-European cold/heat study concludes that for an increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit in the average European temperatures, “our data suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short-term declines in cold-related mortalities.” For Britain, it is estimated a 3.6°F increase will mean 2,000 more heat deaths but 20,000 fewer cold deaths. Likewise, another paper incorporating all studies on this issue and applying them to a broad variety of settings in both developed and developing countries found that “global warming may cause a decrease in mortality rates, especially of cardiovascular diseases.”