Sea Ice Stretch Run #3 : DeWitt Payne

What a difference a day makes. Baby ice extent is rallying. The smoothed rate dropped from -0.0706 to -0.0651 Mm2/day. That gained six days on the rate method putting minimum extent on 9/29 and minimum area at 4.32 Mm2. The rate curve is still somewhat below but close to 2004. 2004 even had a big extent loss at about the same time as 2008, the local rate minimum in 2004 was two days before 2008. The area remaining method puts minimum extent at 4.86 Mm2 on 9/15. 2007 is back outside the 99% prediction limit as well. It is extremely unlikely that 2008 can catch 2007, but anything can happen in the next month.