Thursday, October 23, 2008

Cleantech Blog: Why Obama Should Scare Democratic Voters in Battleground States
...Unilateral Cap and Trade - A vastly more stringent climate change plan than Europe's and China's does not mean global warming gets solved (that only happens if the EU, the US, and the BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China all work together, as John McCain has proposed), but it does mean that without extra subsidies, cash will flow from the MidWest to the East and West Coasts, and jobs flow from the MidWest to China and India. Who's been your friend here? Gasp! The US Senate and George W, who have refused to move unilaterally without some sort of commitments from China and India, and John McCain, who has proposed caps moving in line with Europe and linkages with other carbon markets that means dollars from California can flow to China to pay for carbon, not jobs from Pennsylvania.

Who's your enemy? Obama's plan to "outdo" the Europeans.

Anti-nuke - In a region weak on wind (for however much that could actually help), far from cheap gas resources, and historically coal, the only viable carbon free power capable of replacing the 80 to 90% coal fired power fleets in states like Ohio and the MidWest is nuclear. McCain is pro nuke. Obama? Not so much. In a carbon constrained economy, not so good for the MidWest.
...
So who gets hurt most with high energy prices and high carbon prices? The lower the income, the more manufacturing focused the job, and those in coal states first. Now does that sound like the traditional Democratic demographic?

What's Obama's solution? Drive up the price of conventional energy and obsolete the strength of Detroit's profit base. Then subsidize alternative energy that while it's coming down the cost curve and is critical for our future, is still called alternative because it's way more expensive than conventional. Then subsidize the lower income groups hurt by those higher energy prices. Then subsidize carbon capture and sequestration - a high risk technology area that every expert in the field acknowleges will take decades to bring online in a meaningful way. A subsidy to fix a subsidy to fix a subsidy? Who exactly is going to pay the piper? The MidWest economy. The battleground state voters. The Democratic constituency. The middle class. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Colorado, Michigan.

No comments: