Interview with Benny Peiser

200811142593 | Is The Tide Turning On Climate Policy? | / | Energy & Environment

"The political class of Britain is in denial. They just don't see or they don't want to see that they are on their own now. No other country is following. It's exactly the opposite, they are all retreating, whereas Britain is saying, 'Oh, we are not going far enough, we need even more reductions.' "Everyone else is saying, 'Hold on, stop, we need to think. Is that really what we want, is that viable economically? Should we go it alone? Or shouldn't we put some pressure on the rest of the world? But Britain says, 'We'll go alone.' Apart from the question whether it's actually feasible economically and energy wise and so on, it's politically nonsensical."
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LTT first interviewed Peiser two years ago (LTT 30 Nov 06), just after publication of Sir Nicholas Stern's report on the economics of climate change and at a time when the topic was rocketing up the agenda in transport. "The political, economic climate has changed beyond recognition globally, in Europe and in Britain, from the time we last met," he says. "Then we were at the peak of the climate change concern. I said this has to run its course, it's unstoppable, everyone is shouting 'The house is burning' but eventually it will cool down. I did not expect that to happen so quickly and dramatically.
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Cold feet in Europe

Peiser says these problems have been crystallised in Europe, until now, the global leader in championing emission reductions. "This is the fascinating new development. Europe has basically abandoned any unilateral climate policy."
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"I think the debate would be different if we saw significant warming. But for the time being, the politicians think, 'Hold on, is the world different today than it was ten, 20 years ago? Is here an emergency, something we have to really completely overturn our economy and risk social stability, do we really need to do it?' And I think most politicians have come to the conclusion that's not the case. And so the tone has changed and people have calmed down and are taking amore reasonable position, which is good."

Peiser believes climate scientists are losing their influence in the debate. "One of the big losers in this is the scientific community. Because their advice is no longer sought and their advice is no longer followed. Why? Because they've overdone it. I don't think the decision-makers trust their advice. Not because they are climate sceptics - don't get me wrong, I don't think they are - but I think the exaggeration of the problem has made it difficult for decision-makers.
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"Do I believe there will be a global agreement? No. This is where the runaway train crashes into the buffers." The problem, he says, is that the price of a deal is too high for all sides. The developed world insists that developing countries such as China and India must commit to emission reductions. "Can they afford to cut emissions? No, there is no way. Their economies are booming, the energy demand is increasing at astronomical levels, they're scouring the planet to find resources. Can they cut CO2 emissions? No. Impossible." Meanwhile, China says that if developing nations are to cut emissions than the developed nations must devote a massive 1%of their GDP to help them do so.

"It's a blame game now," says Peiser, and he sees the G8 declaration as part of that. "No one will say this has collapsed. They'll say, 'OK, well, we'll meet again in a year - there will always be another conference.'" There may even be an agreement on aspirational reduction targets. "But a target in its own right doesn't really matter if you don't have a solution to get there. And the solutions are not there."And so, emissions will keep on rising, and atmospheric concentrations will go up far beyond the 450-550ppm CO2e that people such as Stern say should be the limit. "If you want to know what I think is going on inside Prime Ministers' offices around the world, it's 'Let's kick this into the long grass.' Because that is what it will take to approach the problem. The short-termism is gone.

"If Britain's politicians really believe they can turn the country in the next two or three decades into this low carbon or zero carbon economy then they are facing a harsh reality. Can you believe that the Labour Government is in power since 1997 and has made climate change top priority for the last ten years and hasn't even been able to bring down CO2 emissions - I mean that tells you everything you need to know. "Sometimes it's hard to accept reality because it's so against all your beliefs but in real life it's important, particularly if you're a decision-maker, to accept reality. Even if it's completely opposite to what you'd like reality to be. Once reality hits you, you are either able to accept it and change your view and to adapt or you are just an autistic politician and you stick to your idea regardless."