Getting Real on Climate Change | The American Prospect

The debate over cap-and-trade legislation in June began to turn against Democrats almost as soon as it began. As Republicans prepared to introduce amendments that would have suspended the cap if it raised gasoline prices -- which no one doubted it would -- panic set in. Democrats started to flee the legislation, and senior Democratic staffers in the Senate were quoted anonymously in Roll Call: "This is what happens when the committee staff and the chairman get so deep into the weeds of the bill that they can no longer see the political realities," said one. "Boxer is walking us off a cliff," said another.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid quickly orchestrated a vote for cloture to end debate so Democrats could avoid voting on the legislation. "In the end, we got a stronger vote [for cloture] on a stronger bill than we had three years ago," says Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). But support for cap-and-trade has steadily eroded, not increased. In 2003, cap-and-trade received 43 votes. In 2005, it received 38 votes. Had the 2008 bill actually been voted on, green lobbyists and Senate staffers said, it would have received no more than 35 votes.
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Greens have, by and large, missed this shift in assumptions. While we should not be surprised if environmental leaders continue to argue for cap-and-trade, it will be surprising if Obama, Pelosi, and Reid choose to follow them "off a cliff" once again.