UK | Poll finds many may retire abroad
Over a third of Britons questioned in a poll have said they would consider retiring abroad because of the weather and rising costs.Are climate scientists overselling their models? - environment - 04 December 2008 - New Scientist
Of those questioned in the YouGov poll for Scottish Widows, 69% saying they want to escape the British weather.
...
Spain is the most popular destination being considered for retirement, with 17% of those questioned saying they would move there.
Next year, the UK Climate Impacts Programme [largely funded by the British government] will unveil a "weather generator" that will allow corporations or government agencies to print out hourly weather patterns for beyond 2060, with a spatial resolution of 5 kilometres. Understandably, many users think they can use this information to work out how big to build reservoirs or flood defences. How much detail should people believe? Where does insight from the laws of physics end and meaningless happenstance from model details kick in?
...
Most of the working scientists, especially the younger ones, are worried about over-interpretation. In some countries, though, national research centres are charged with both advancing the science and selling their results commercially. This must be a difficult position. It is hard for a salesman to lead his presentation with uncertainty, even if that's what the science says.
...
[Q:] So should we believe the reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
Broadly yes - we understand a lot. You have to read the qualifiers carefully, though. In the most recent report, for instance, there is an explicit acknowledgement that the range of simulations in today's models is too narrow. That is, future warming could be greater or less than what is suggested by the diversity between models in the report. It's good that the qualifier is in there, but it is a hell of a qualifier to find on page 797.
...
[Q:] How did you get interested in the whole issue of uncertainty in modelling?
In New York I worked with Jim Hansen, the climate scientist, and looked at the codes of the early computer models. I did my thesis with Ed Spiegel, an astrophysicist who had worked on chaos since the 1960s. I had to grapple with uncertainty at every turn.
No comments:
Post a Comment