[Spending real money based on bogus models that predict a] Catastrophic Climate Future: Are We That Stupid? | LiveScience

Schneider agrees that the approach is useful for policy, but thinks that it shouldn't be necessary to persuade people that the climate risks are high enough that we need to act. The probability of the catastrophic outcomes he described in his essay coming to pass are between 5 and 10 percent, he wrote. This is far below the 1 to 2 percent chance of having a fire in your house, "yet we buy insurance because of the consequences of the outcome," he said.

World 'unlikely to stop global warming [fraud] reaching critical levels' - Telegraph

Dr Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office, said: "Even with drastic cuts in emissions in the next 10 years, our results project that there will only be around a 50 per cent chance of keeping global temperatures rises below 3.6F (2 C).

"This idealised emissions scenario is based on emissions peaking in 2015 and quickly changing from an increase of 2–3 per cent per year to a decrease of 3 per cent per year. For every 10 years we delay action another 0.9F (0.5C) will be added to the most likely temperature rise."

Feb '09: Vicky Pope: Climate change scientists must rein in misleading extreme weather claims

For climate scientists, having to continually rein in extraordinary claims that the latest extreme is all due to climate change is, at best, hugely frustrating and, at worst, enormously distracting.