Current Intrade quote suggests only 21% chance US cap and trade scam system will be established by close of this year

Is Carbon Trading or Cap and Trade Dying On The Vine? (ICE, CME, NDAQ, BRK-A) - 24/7 Wall Street

One of the Obama proposals to fight global warming and climate change may be up against the ropes. This is emissions trading, or what the media calls “cap and trade.” There are many who consider this type of emissions trading to be the Holy Grail, and there are many who claim it does nothing other than create a business expense or hidden tax. It could represent a huge new market for the IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) and the CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME), as well as Climate Exchange plc (OTC-CXCHF) as the owner of the Chicago Climate Exchange. Climate Exchange plc (LSE: CLE.L) is an AIM listed company which owns the world’s leading environmental exchanges.

We think that it is probably too early to call “cap & trade” a dead idea. But what is looking more likely is that at best what will be headed to a Congressional vote is a greatly watered-down version of cap & trade. If a watered-down version does not come first, then we have many reasons to believe that this may be an issue to debate in 2011 rather than 2009.
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By the looks of it, climate contract values at the CCX look significantly lower than before, although there are other contracts that can be evaluated. There is also an INTRADE “Prediction Market” for “Cap and Trade.” While these contracts are very thinly traded, they do offer at least some insight into whether or not this becomes a real US market before the end of 2009, 2010, and even to 2011. This is located under “BUSINESS” and then under “Cap and Trade” in that section. This shows a pretty low chance for this being implemented as “A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009″…..  [Via Climate Depot]