Climate Progress » Blog Archive » After Bonn, a safe future for youth still in doubt
Today’s guest blogger is Kyle Gracey, Chair for SustainUS and a graduate student in public policy and geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago.Coldest day for 43 years | The Australian
In 2050, I’ll be 77, and given the pace of the climate talks in Bonn these two weeks, I’ll likely spend most of my retirement either under water or on fire.
CANBERRANS shivered through one of their coldest days on record yesterday as morning fog cleared, only to reveal a bank of cloud that kept a low lid on temperatures.Common Sense and The Perils of Predictions « Watts Up With That?
Canberra recorded a top of 4.1C at 2.34pm, the city's coldest June day since the mercury topped out at just 2.8C in 1966.
In spite of these spectacular failures of less complex computer modeling in economics and public health, the atmospheric sciences seem to be making similar miscalculations. If your common sense would lead you to disregard these models’ forecasts when planning your portfolio and whether you get a flu shot, I would suggest we adopt a much more modest approach to the use of climate models. While they are useful research tools, the numerous uncertainties (cloud feedback, particulates, volcanic ash, the current quiet sun, etc.) are so great we cannot claim to have forecast skill decades into the future.
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Michael R. Smith is CEO of WeatherData Services, Inc., An AccuWeather Company, and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.
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