Journalist Mike Steketee weighs in: Climate contrarians | The Australian

THE evidence of global warming keeps piling up but that seems only to embolden the climate contrarians and sceptics to press their case harder.

Why shouldn't they, as they are having some success in raising doubts among politicians?
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Fielding is venturing on to well-trampled ground. Based on measurements by the World Meteorological Organisation and others, since 1998 there has been a downward trend in global temperatures. But 1998 was the warmest year since such records were first kept in 1850. In the intervening 158 years, there has been a long-term upward trend, though not without variations: there was a period of cooling from the 1940s to the 70s, as there has been in the last 10 years. That proves only that there are many influences on the weather, including the strong global El Nino, associated with droughts, in 1998. Despite 2008 being the third year in a row of falling global temperatures, it still was the 10th hottest year since 1850.

These statistics are hard to refute, unless meteorological organisations are included in the worldwide conspiracy. It is possible for other factors to have a stronger influence on the climate than greenhouse gases. But there is no evidence that this has been the case during this century.

Contrary to Fielding's memory, solar activity and its contribution to the earth's climate have been studied and debated since the time of Galileo in the 1600s. Few scientists today believe it is the main factor in global warming. University of Chicago professor of geophysical sciences David Archer writes in his recent book The Long Thaw that, measured in watts per square metre, solar variations typically account for a change of 0.1, compared to about 3.0 for greenhouse gases.

Mike Steketee Blog | The Australian

Mike Steketee is The Australian's national affairs editor and a former political correspondent and Washington correspondent. He won a Walkley award for journalism leadership in 2000.