When "expert" two-month sea ice projections vary by 20,000 Manhattans, how accurate are 40-year projections likely to be?

Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

Their most recent report points to another extreme September sea ice minimum in 2009, with projections for the September monthly average ranging from 4.0 to 5.0 million square kilometers (1.5 to 1.9 million square miles). However, sea ice forecasting efforts are still in their infancy, and the resulting projections should not be taken as a true forecast, but rather as a way to gain insights into the changing Arctic climate.

Actually, with about two months to go in the summer melt season, the "projections" (see graph below) differ by as much as 1.2 million square kilometers--or as the alarmists would put it, 20,000 Manhattans!!



Area of Manhattan

...a land area of 22.96 square miles (59.47 km²)